029
FXUS62 KMLB 082355
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
755 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

- High rain and storm chances (70-80%) persist through the weekend
  as a weak disturbance and rich tropical moisture affect Central
  Florida.

- Rain chances drop slightly (50-60%) early next week as
  temperatures climb back above normal.

- A High Risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
  exists at area beaches through tonight, potentially lingering
  into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Made a few tweaks to rain/storm chances over the next 24 hours to
capture radar and CAM/ensemble trends. An inverted trough axis
remains over the state, and associated deep-layer moisture is
entrenched with PW values approaching 2.3". In an area of moisture
convergence, slow-moving bands of rain and storms persist from
near Titusville to Osceola County. 3-4" tallies have been measured
at our wettest locales this evening, prompting a few Flood
Advisories.

Hi-res guidance generally diminishes this activity by late
evening, refocusing development overnight along the immediate
coast and off in the Atlantic. Any training bands of
showers/storms overnight along the coast will pose a risk for
minor flooding due to the highly-efficient rainfall rates. It
still appears that the highest rain/storm coverage will push
across the interior once again by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Currently-Tonight...Sfc observations and diurnal cu development on
satellite easily show the axis of the inverted trough across the
area, extending from near Bradenton to the Cape. This feature will
continue to push slowly west-northwest, as a weak frontal boundary
lingers across north FL. Convective development is picking up across
the region, mainly west of I-95 as the east coast sea breeze has
formed and is shifting inland. Still forecasting scattered to
numerous coverage of showers and storms through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early evening. Storm motion will be
slow and variable due to weak steering winds with the trough
across Florida, and this combined with deep moisture in place (PW
of 2+ inches) will lead to some locally heavy rainfall up to 2-4"
with persistent or repeated rounds of heavier showers and storms.
WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall along and NW
of the I-4 corridor through rest of today into tonight. Isolated
stronger storms producing frequent lightning strikes and strong
wind gusts will also be possible. While greatest shower and storm
coverage will focus across the western side of the FL peninsula
late in the day and into the evening, rain chances will linger
across the area tonight, especially along the coast as convection
will increase across the waters. Some of this activity will be
able to move onshore or push northward along the coast overnight
and into early morning hours Saturday. Warm and muggy conditions
overnight, with lows in the 70s.

Saturday-Sunday...A wet weekend is in store, but it doesn`t look
like it will be a complete washout. A weak frontal boundary lingers
near to north of the area, with an inverted trough shifting west of
the area and into the eastern Gulf, maintaining deep moisture (PW
2.0-2.3") across the region. Low level flow remains out of the S/SE,
with showers and storms increasing over the waters overnight and
into the morning hours, with some of this activity pushing onshore
or brushing northward along the coast. Then each afternoon expect
developing scattered to numerous showers and storms as a somewhat
diffuse east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Model
guidance continues to focus greatest coverage of this activity
toward the west side of the Florida peninsula later into the day and
evening where boundary collisions are favored. However, coverage
looks to be high enough even across east central Florida to support
rain chances up to 80 percent each day. Primary concern will
continue to be locally heavy rainfall up to 2-4" in spots which may
lead to mostly minor flooding issues. However, could see isolated
instances of more substantial flooding of roadways and poor drainage
areas across any locations that see heavy rainfall over repeated
days, especially across and NW of the I-4 corridor where a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall persists both days.

Increasing convection and cloud cover each afternoon will keep highs
closer to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s, but will still see
peak heat index values reach around 100-105 degrees. Overnight lows
will continue to fall into the mid to upper 70s for most locations.

Monday-Thursday...Trough of low pressure shifts farther west
across the Gulf early next week dragging deeper moisture with it
and leading to an overall decrease in PW values across Florida.
The weak front across north Florida will also fade as a mid-level
ridge builds in across the area by midweek. This will lead to a
gradual decrease in rain chances from 60-70 percent on Monday to
50-60 percent Tuesday-Thursday. An onshore E/SE flow will keep
greatest rain chances inland each afternoon and evening. As PoPs
decrease, the heat will rise, with highs back into the low to mid
90s and peak heat index values around 102-107 degrees (potentially
higher in spots) each afternoon, especially midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Thru Wed...(Modified Previous Discussion) A weak frontal boundary
will continue to lie quasi-stationary across north-central FL at
least thru the weekend and should fade into early next week.
Winds are forecast to remain predominantly onshore, generally out
of the southeast this weekend and a bit more E/ESE into Mon-Tue,
before shifting S/SE by midweek. Wind speeds will remain below 15
knots outside of convection. Seas forecast to remain around 2-3
ft through much of the period, but may build to 4 ft well offshore
Sunday night into Monday. Seas locally higher invof stronger
showers and lightning storms.

Above normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast over the
waters into the weekend and Mon. Rain chances may trend closer to
normal early next week (Tue) as deeper moisture shifts westward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Very unsettled pattern persists as a trough and deep moisture
slowly transit over the state. Current showers and storms (focused
over MCO/DAB/TIX/ISM) are projected to diminish by late evening,
but redevelopment has a 30-50% chance of occurrence along the
coastal terminals overnight through the morning hours. Focus of
convection favors interior terminals by Saturday afternoon and
early evening. SE winds 5-12 KT with mainly VFR outside of showers
and storms. However, ample moisture is causing MVFR CIGs from time
to time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  75  89 /  60  70  50  80
MCO  75  91  74  92 /  60  80  40  80
MLB  77  89  77  90 /  40  70  40  80
VRB  75  90  74  91 /  40  70  50  80
LEE  75  90  76  90 /  60  80  80  80
SFB  75  90  75  91 /  60  80  50  80
ORL  76  91  75  91 /  60  80  50  80
FPR  74  90  74  90 /  40  70  50  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil