981
FXUS62 KMLB 240628
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
228 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

- Lower rain chances overall through mid week, mainly focused
  across the interior, then increasing coverage of showers and
  lightning storms areawide Thursday into next weekend

- Heat and humidity persist this week with peak heat indices
  reaching the low 100s

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Current-Tonight...Light onshore winds, occasionally variable early
this morning, will increase to 10-15 mph by this afternoon with some
higher gusts, esp surrounding east coast sea breeze passage as this
feature moves well inland during the day due to the deep low-level
ERLY flow. There could be ISOLD onshore-moving (low-topped) showers
and perhaps a lightning storm this morning (mainly south of the
Cape), with activity tending to diminish further inland from the
coast. We still have overall drier air across the area that will
limit PoP chances again this afternoon (20-40pct) - south of
Orlando with highest numbers Okeechobee County/Treasure Coast.
Primary storm threats include gusty winds of 30-45 mph, occasional
to frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours.
Otherwise, the Atlc ridge axis gradually weakens and remains
situated north of ECFL. Aloft, strong mid-level ridging centered
across the mid Atlc states slowly begins to retrograde toward the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.

Max temperatures in the U80s to around 90F near the coast and L90s
into the interior. Peak afternoon heat indices 98-103F. Overnight
mins generally in the L-M70s (U70s to near 80F barrier islands) with
conditions humid.

Wed-Wed Night...Aloft, the ridging across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
continues to weaken. The ridge will also be undercut by a mid-level
low, initially near the south-central FL coast, as it continues to
push onto land centered near Lake Okeechobee by early Thu morning.
At the surface, ridging to the north also weakens, though we will
maintain the onshore flow. Unimpressive PWAT values (1.40-1.70")
across the area, but with the mid-level disturbance 500 mb temps
will be cooler than normal (-9C to -11C). We still retain overall
lower PoPs (30-50pct) - highest surrounding Lake Okee. A couple
strong to marginally severe storms will be possible in the
afternoon. Highs/lows remain consistent with the past few days and
conditions humid.

Thu-Mon...The aforementioned mid-level low lifts slowly northward on
Thu/Fri, with PWATs increasing in its wake across ECFL. The low-
level ridge gradually tries to re-establish itself across
central/south-central FL during this time - though its influence is
weak. An increase in PoPs (60-70pct) is forecast with stronger sea
breeze/mesoscale boundary collisions likely and better organized
storm activity forecast. High temps in the U80s to L90s and peak
heat indices 98-105F. Warm and muggy conditions are forecast through
the weekend, with lows in the L-M70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Today-Sat...Generally favorable boating conditions continue
through the upcoming week, with fairly deep onshore flow veering
more S/SW Thu night into Fri, then back to S/SE on Sat. Wind
speeds AOB 15 kts. The surface ridge axis remains north of the
local waters through at least Thu, before sliding southward into
the central FL peninsula. Seas 2-3 feet.

The persistent onshore flow pattern will focus isolated/scattered
shower and lightning storm activity over the local waters each night
and morning, then favoring across land areas during the late morning
and afternoon periods thru mid-week. Some of the (esp.) nocturnal
activity will push onshore, primarily south of the Cape. An upper-
level disturbance and a bump up in moisture in its wake will
increase precip chances Thu-Fri (60-70pct) with a few strong storms
possible. Main storm impacts will be gusty winds, cloud-to-water
lightning strikes, and torrential downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered
onshore moving showers will be possible through this morning,
mainly from VRB southward. Convection will then focus across the
interior in the afternoon, mainly south of ISM. Because of this,
have kept MCO-SFB-LEE-ISM-TIX-MLB dry through the TAF period, with
VCSH for VRB-FPR-SUA through 17Z. Easterly winds will increase to
10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT in the afternoon before becoming
light again overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  89  73 /  10  10  20  10
MCO  93  74  93  74 /  20  10  30  10
MLB  88  76  88  75 /  20  10  30  20
VRB  90  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LEE  93  74  92  75 /  10  10  40  20
SFB  93  74  92  74 /  10  10  20  10
ORL  93  75  92  75 /  10  10  30  10
FPR  88  72  89  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson