837
FXUS62 KMLB 221928
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
228 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

- Below normal temperatures linger tonight through Saturday
  night, with a gradual warming trend forecast Sunday and into
  next week.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue through tonight.

- Remaining dry over the next several days, with fire sensitive
  conditions remaining in place through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Tonight-Sunday...Mid/upper level trough exits offshore the eastern
U.S. coast tonight, with sfc high pressure across the central U.S.
settling southeast and eventually across Florida Saturday night into
Sunday. Breezy W/NW winds this afternoon will diminish to around 5
to 10 mph past sunset, and will continue to transport colder temps
into central FL tonight. Temps will be even lower tonight than last
night, with lows forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below normal.
Min temps will be in the low to mid 40s for most locations, and may
even see some upper 30s across normally colder locations NW of I-4,
mainly across northern Lake and NW Volusia counties. Wind chill
values will be as low as the mid to upper 30s around daybreak
Saturday morning.

The significantly drier airmass in place will keep skies sunny into
Saturday, with highs once again only reaching the mid to upper 60s.
N/NW winds will not be as gusty with speeds around 10 mph into the
afternoon. Then as high pressure settles in Saturday night, winds
become light and variable, with dry conditions continuing and skies
remaining clear. This will lead to favorable radiational cooling
conditions and allow temps to fall quickly back into the 40s
Saturday night. Winds remain pretty light into Sunday, and we will
begin to see a warming trend take hold. Highs will be still be just
a few degrees below normal on Sunday, but warmer than Saturday, in
the low to mid 70s. Lows Sunday night will also be closer to normal
in the 50s for most locations, except mid to upper 40s NW of I-4.

Monday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mainly zonal flow
aloft continues through the upcoming work-week. Weak high pressure a
mainstay across the area, until the next formidable front forecast
to push into central FL late Fri afternoon-Fri night. We continue to
keep conditions dry thru the period. The warming trend started on
Sun will continue with U70s to around 80F (M70s Volusia coast Mon)
for Mon-Wed and low 80s on Thanksgiving Day. Temps may then drop
again into Friday depending on timing of frontal passage. Mins in
the 50s for much of the interior with some L60s gradually returning
E of I-95 and possibly M-U60s by Thu morning for immediate St.
Lucie/Martin counties. Generally light winds thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Tonight...Wind speeds will diminish slightly but still remain
elevated out of the NW up to 15-20 knots into tonight, with seas up
to 6 to 7 feet offshore. Nearshore, seas will be around 3-5 feet.
The Small Craft Advisory will continue over the offshore waters
through late tonight, but will be allowed to end at 4 PM this
afternoon nearshore. However, small craft should still exercise
caution over these waters through this evening.

Sat-Tue...(Previous Discussion) High pressure builds into the area
through the extended with continued dry conditions and much lighter
winds as the pressure gradient relaxes. Poor conditions (4-6 ft
seas) initially in the Gulf Stream early on Sat, with seas
continuing to subside thru the weekend and early next week with
generally favorable boating conditions. However, hazardous
conditions may develop near inlets during the outgoing tide sometime
on Sun and continuing into early next week as an increasing (ENE/NE)
long period swell (12-14 seconds) is forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR through the period. Sustained northwest winds around 12-15
kts with gusts between 20-25 kts will diminish into the evening.
Winds are forecast around 5-8 kts overnight. Dry conditions
persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure over the central U.S. will gradually
build southeast and across the area into this weekend. This will
allow winds to diminish across the area. Winds will be out of the
north to northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon on Saturday, and
will then become lighter and more variable into Sunday. A very dry
airmass remains in place, and will again lead to lower RH in the mid
to upper 30s across much of the area Saturday, with these values
then mostly confined to locations near to NW of the I-4 corridor on
Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal with lows in
the 40s tonight and Saturday night, with highs still in the mid to
upper 60s on Saturday, warming to the low to mid 70s on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  67  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  44  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  42  67  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  42  68  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  43  67  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  42  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  45  67  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  41  68  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Law