Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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599 FXUS62 KMLB 221735 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1235 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through tonight. - Below normal temperatures forecast to persist through this weekend, and will be the coldest temperatures of the season so far. - Remaining dry over the next several days, with fire sensitive conditions continuing into this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 915 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 It was a colder start to this morning, with temperatures as low as the 40s across much of the region. Very dry and cooler airmass will keep sunny skies in place today, with highs between 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the mid to upper 60s for most locations, except around 70 degrees along the Treasure Coast. West-northwest winds will pick up to around 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph today. Forecast is on track, with no significant changes needed. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Current-Tonight...A cool start to the morning with areawide 40s near sunrise expected, and L50s for the barrier islands. Lowest wind chill readings around sunrise may fall into the U30s to L40s across much of the area. Vigorous mid-level troughing continues along the Atlc Seaboard. This will push a dry, reinforcing cold front across ECFL early in the period. Winds will veer WNW/NW and increase during the day from 5-10 mph to 15-20 mph (breezy) with frequent higher gusts (up to around 25 mph) due to a tightening pressure gradient. With the reinforcement of cooler/drier air, expect afternoon maxes 7-10 degrees below climo, from the M60s across the I-4 corridor with U60s southward and perhaps a 70F reading for a couple spots. However, the breezy/gusty NW winds will make it feel much cooler. Tonight will be a bit cooler with widespread L-M40s for most, except M-U40s at immediate Space & Treasure coasts. A few normally cooler spots across the rural interior may realize U30s for mins. WNW winds will diminish to near 5 mph this evening and overnight. Towards sunrise lowest wind chill readings will fall into the M-U30s (1-3hrs). Sat-Sun...The aforementioned mid-level troughing pushes away from the Eastern Seaboard and deeper into the Atlc, with zonal flow returning to much of the Gulf Coast States and southeast U.S. Surface high pressure across the Deep South and northern GoMex will translate eastward and take up residency across the FL peninsula by late Sat, continuing its grip across the area thru the duration of this period. NW winds 7-12 mph on Sat will diminish and be light Sat night-Sun night as the pgrad relaxes. Conditions remain dry and below normal for highs/lows. Highs on Sat mainly in the U60s for most with a slight warming trend into Sun with readings in the L-M70s. Continued "cool" lows Sat night, with L-M40s across the interior and U40s for along the coast - perhaps a few L50s for immediate Treasure Coast. For Sun night, expect U40s to L50s for much of the interior/Volusia coast and M-U50s for the Space and Treasure coasts. Barrier islands will be a bit warmer. Mon-Fri...Mainly zonal flow aloft continues through the upcoming work-week. Weak high pressure a mainstay across the area, until the next formidable front forecast to push into central FL late Fri afternoon-Fri night. We continue to keep conditions dry thru the period. The warming trend started on Sun will continue with U70s to around 80F (M70s Volusia coast Mon) for Mon-Wed and generally 79-83F practically areawide Thu/Fri. Mins in the 50s for much of the interior with some L60s gradually returning E of I-95 and possibly M-U60s by Thu morning for immediate St. Lucie/Martin counties. Generally light winds thru the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today-Tonight...Small Craft Advisories greet all marine legs as a reinforcing dry/cold front pushes southward across the area early in the period. This will increase WNW/NW winds to around 20 kts (25 kts well offshore) with higher gusts expected. Wind speeds begin to diminish later today and tonight, 13-18 kts tonight. Advisories fall off near shore at 21Z/4PM today but continue into tonight for offshore legs. Seas will build 4-6 ft near shore early in the period and 6-8 ft offshore, subsiding 3-5 ft near shore later in the day becoming 3-4 ft near shore by daybreak Sat morning and generally 4-6 ft offshore. Sat-Tue...High pressure builds into the area through the extended with continued dry conditions and much lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes. Poor conditions (4-6 ft seas) initially in the Gulf Stream early on Sat, with seas continuing to subside thru the weekend and early next week with generally favorable boating conditions. However, hazardous conditions may develop near inlets during the outgoing tide sometime on Sun and continuing into early next week as an increasing (ENE/NE) long period swell (12-14 seconds) is forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR through the period. Sustained northwest winds around 12-15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts will diminish into the evening. Winds are forecast around 5-8 kts overnight. Dry conditions persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 41 67 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 44 67 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 42 67 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 42 68 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 43 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 42 67 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 45 67 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 41 68 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550- 552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Law