849
FXUS62 KMLB 241820
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
220 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Isolated showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, with
  slightly greater coverage forecast on Sunday. Gusty winds,
  frequent lightning, and some small hail are possible.

- Favorable boating conditions through the weekend, becoming poor
  over the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday behind a front.

- Warming up this weekend, slightly cooler along the coast early
  next week, then hotter mid to late week as high pressure builds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Now-Tonight...Satellite imagery this afternoon shows fair weather
cumulus developing over the area. The east coast breeze is
delineated by clearer skies over the immediate coast (east of I-95)
as it slowly treks westward. Very weak H5 height falls are noted on
the last couple hours of RAP analysis, along with a weak and broad
area of mid level energy moving overhead. Temperatures will continue
to warm into the mid 80s inland this afternoon with coastal
locations (behind the sea breeze) hovering in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees. Isolated showers are forecast (15-20% chance) as
the sea breeze moves inland, eventually colliding with the west
coast breeze over interior Florida. The latest CAM guidance and
ensembles are spotty in nature regarding coverage of
showers/isolated storms, lingering through mid to late evening
(ending no later than midnight). Moisture is marginally greater
south near Lake Okeechobee, but convective development is expected
to struggle everywhere as a result of some lingering dry air. QPF is
light, generally a few hundredths in places that do see rain.
Likewise, there will be many locations (especially the coast) that
stay dry. Temperatures steadily fall after sunset, reaching the low
to mid 60s overnight.

Saturday-Sunday...A weak mid level trough pattern continues this
weekend with west-northwest flow aloft. Surface high pressure
technically remains in place through Saturday, weakening further on
Sunday. Moisture will gradually increase each day with PW reaching
1.4-1.6", especially by Sunday. Winds at the surface on Saturday
will be light, starting south-southwest and veering onshore during
the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms once again. Based
on recent guidance trends, the thinking is for the west coast breeze
to make it a little farther across the peninsula late tomorrow
afternoon, colliding with the east coast breeze near/east of the
Orlando metro. Aside from a slower inland-moving sea breeze helping
to bump temperatures up several more degrees, this is where the
greatest chance of scattered showers and isolated storms is forecast
(25-30%). With a westerly component to steering flow, some outflow-
driven activity could push back to the east coast through midnight
or early Sunday morning. The modeled environment appears a bit more
supportive for lightning storms, particularly closer to the coast
Saturday evening. Gusty winds and even some small hail will be
possible in the most organized activity. Be sure to head indoors if
skies threaten or you hear thunder! Activity will wane after
midnight as we lose the support of daytime heating and instability.

A similar story can be told for Sunday as mid level energy and a
weak front approaches north-central Florida. Westerly winds through
early afternoon will more slowly turn onshore mid to late afternoon
as a diffuse east coast breeze forms. The chance for showers and
scattered storms increases through the day and into the early
evening hours, particularly with the sea breeze collision favored
closer to the Atlantic coast. H5 temps do warm marginally (-10 to -
11C) but are still supportive of scattered convection, capable of
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and even small hail. Daytime
temperatures will depend on how cloud cover plays out, but there is
likely to be enough sunshine to reach the upper 80s to around 90
degrees...especially farther south. Rain chances decrease as
activity pushes offshore Sunday night/early Monday morning.

Monday-Friday (modified)...A 500mb shortwave moves offshore the
Carolina and Mid Atlantic coast early Monday. Surface low pressure
develops in the western Atlantic, pulling a "back-door" cold front
across east central Florida Monday; however, there remain timing
discrepancies in the guidance as to how fast this front introduces
drier air to the region. Global ensemble members still point toward
limited QPF associated with the front, but the overall timing of the
FROPA will suggest if rain/storm trends go up or down for Monday.
Right now, low confidence only suggests a slight chance for showers
and an isolated storm Monday afternoon. Forecast confidence further
decreases mid to late next week with some hints of another frontal
passage later in the week (Thursday or beyond), with perhaps another
front arriving next weekend.

Mostly dry through the extended period outside of the low
shower/storm chance mentioned on Monday. High temperatures remain
above normal, mostly in the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday,
climbing into the low 90s across much of the interior Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through Monday
morning, outside of the chance for isolated showers and storms
(afternoon/evening). Light southwest winds Saturday and Sunday
morning will veer southeasterly each afternoon behind the developing
east coast sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft through Sunday night are forecast
to build 4-6 ft Monday afternoon and evening as a weak front pushes
south across the waters. Isolated showers and storms are possible
Saturday evening/night as inland activity pushes offshore. Slightly
higher coverage of showers and storms is forecast Sunday with
activity again moving offshore from late afternoon through the
evening before gradually dissipating overnight. Drier conditions
return Tuesday onward as high pressure returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR should dominate this TAF period. Ridge axis close by will
allow sea breeze circulation to be the deciding factor for winds,
bcmg E/ESE 5-12 KT in the afternoon, most noticeably at the
coastal terminals. Low chance for a few showers around the Orlando
area terminals this evening (<30%), with even lower chances for
lightning activity today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

High pressure remains through Saturday, weakening some on Sunday as
a weak front approaches the area, then building again by next week.
A light south-southwest breeze turns onshore Saturday afternoon as
the east coast breeze develops. Isolated showers and storms are
forecast late afternoon through the evening hours, starting over the
interior and ending nearer to the east coast. Moisture increases a
bit more Sunday, and combined with an east-coast-favored sea breeze
collision and an approaching front, coverage of showers and storms
increases to 30-45%. New fire starts are a concern with lightning
activity, particularly on Sunday. Fire conditions remain sensitive
over the interior Saturday with lower humidity values, before
moisture modestly increases through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  85  64  86 /  10  10  20  30
MCO  64  88  66  88 /  20  30  20  40
MLB  66  84  67  86 /  10  20  30  30
VRB  64  84  66  87 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  64  88  65  88 /  20  20  10  30
SFB  63  89  66  89 /  20  30  20  40
ORL  65  89  67  88 /  20  30  20  40
FPR  63  84  65  87 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil