458
FXUS62 KMLB 021049
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
649 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

- Hot and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices up to
  around 107 degrees and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will
  continue through the weekend and into next week.

- Increasing rain chances will offer some respite from the heat,
  but also bring strong storms capable of gusty winds, deadly
  lightning, and torrential downpours.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Today-Tonight...Broad troughing over the eastern US pushes down
into the Deep South in response to a shortwave working through the
pattern, breaking down the mid-level ridge responsible for the
hazardous heat the last several days. At the surface the ridge
axis of the Bermuda high remains south of the area as a weakening
front pushes slowly through the Gulf states towards North Florida.
Southwesterly flow across the peninsula around the ridge axis
will still bring inland baked air to East Central Florida again,
but without subsidence from the ridge aloft and little more cloud
cover, afternoon highs have shaved off a degree or two (though
still technically remain in the L-M90s, just closer to the L90s),
which combined with subtly lower humidity, has brought peak
afternoon to just below Heat Advisory criteria between 103-107.
That said, temperatures remain a couple degrees above normal,
especially along the coast where the sea breeze looks to be very
slow to develop today (if not pinned), and conditions will
continue to be quite unpleasant. Moderate to Major HeatRisk risk
impacts are forecast, and a few hotter locations could still
briefly reach a heat index around 108.

PWATs again range from 1.8"-2.1" (slightly below to slightly
above normal), highest in a band extending across Osceola,
Brevard, and portions of their adjacent counties, and lowest to
the far north and southeast. As usual instability will be
plentiful with MUCAPE increasing to 2,000-4,000 J/kg, and even
MLCAPE pushing 2,000-3,000 J/kg. Low level lapse rates will be
sharp as always, but flatten a bit in the mid-levels by warm 500mb
temperatures around -6C. DCAPE has increased a bit, pushing
towards 1,000 J/kg. All in all, strong storms capable of gusty
winds 45-55 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and
torrential downpours will be possible. We get some W-SW steering
flow around 10 kts, helping to usher storms along, but given the
number of boundaries coming together and everything crashing into
the east coast sea breeze near to just west of the I-95 corridor,
some storms could become essentially stationary, delivering a
quick 2-4" of locally high rainfall leading to minor flooding.

Sunday-Monday...The front stalls across North Florida, becoming a
stationary feature for much of the rest of the forecast. A
disturbance or two are likely to develop along the boundary, with
models consistently developing one off the Carolinas before
eventually ejecting it into the open Atlantic, and while they are
not expected to impact East Central Florida, they`ll keep the
ridge axis of the Bermuda high suppressed to our south through
Sunday, and very weak Monday as it lifts towards Central Florida.
With continued southwesterly to southerly flow, hot and humid
conditions with afternoon highs in the L-M90s, peak afternoon heat
indices 101-107, and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will
continue.

PoPs have actually come down a bit since previous forecasts as
moisture convergence south of the front across ECFL is looking
less impressive. PWATs increase to 1.9-2.1", a bit above normal,
but most of this higher moisture is above 500mb. Biggest
adjustment to the forecast is Sunday, where PoPs have dropped to
mostly 30-50% as dewpoints come in a few degrees lower (less
surface moisture), and drier air in the 850-700mb layer critical
to updraft development overspreads much of Central Florida. Based
on HRRR and RRFS CAMs, which are very pessimistic, wouldn`t be
surprised if Sunday`s PoPs further decreased in coming forecast
packages. The environment becomes more favorable Monday, with PoPs
back up to 40-60%. Strong storms capable of gusty winds, deadly
lightning, and torrential downpours will be possible, better
chances for which Monday.

Tuesday-Friday...The stagnant upper-level pattern continues
through mid-week as disturbances migrating through the pattern
reinforce troughing over the Southeast, then may finally loosen up
late week. The stationary front oscillates a bit, but some portion
of it looks to remain draped across North Florida. There remains
potential for additional disturbances to develop along the
boundary, which combined with how weak the pressure gradient
becomes, casts some doubt in the wind forecast, but for the most
part odds favor onshore flow developing. There is some uncertainty
how much moisture there will be across ECFL south of the front,
with ensemble mean PWATs ending up near climatology around
1.8-1.9", while deterministic guidance varies from slightly below
normal to slightly above normal. Official forecast continues above
normal rain chances, but by no means a washout. Temperatures
remain above normal, but there is a very gradual "cooling" trend
closer to normal (for what that`s worth) by late week from the
onshore flow. Until then, peak afternoon heat indices continue to
flirt with advisory criteria mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week.
The ridge axis of the Bermuda high remains suppressed south of the
area through the weekend as a stalling front slowly sags into
North Florida. Seas 1-3 ft. A weak disturbance or two developing
along this front, notably offshore of the Carolinas, could further
weaken the ridge through Monday. Winds remain out of the
southwest, switching to the south in the afternoon and evening
with the sea breeze circulation at 5-15 kts. While these
disturbances are forecast to remain well outside of the local
Atlantic waters, swell could produce choppy seas 2-4 ft around
mid- week, especially in the Gulf Stream. A very weak ridge axis
lifts back towards Central Florida mid-week as the disturbance off
the Carolinas ejects into the open Atlantic, shifting winds more
southerly which become southeasterly with the sea breeze at 5-15
kts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Light SSW winds increase to 10 kt or less inland after 15z with
VFR conds in place. Iso/sct SHRA/TSRA are forecast to develop from
W-E across ECFL after 17z-18z. Maintained VCTS at LEE with added
TEMPOs now at SFB/MCO/ISM. TEMPOs were also added at DAB/TIX/MLB
for TSRA after 19z-21z. Activity approaching from the west is
forecast to collide with the ECSB and lead to increasing TSRA
development, esp. near TIX/MLB. Lower confidence in impacts exists
from VRB southward. MVFR/IFR conds are possible at impacted
terminals, along with 30+ kt wind gusts.

Drier conditions are forecast after 02z-03z Sun. with light SSW
winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  77  92  76 /  60  30  60  30
MCO  94  77  94  77 /  70  30  50  30
MLB  92  77  92  77 /  50  40  40  30
VRB  92  75  92  75 /  40  30  40  20
LEE  93  77  93  77 /  60  20  50  20
SFB  94  77  94  77 /  70  30  50  30
ORL  94  78  94  77 /  70  30  50  30
FPR  93  74  92  75 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Schaper