598
FXUS62 KMLB 041106
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
706 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

- Heat and humidity continue for the next few days,
  especially Tuesday, with Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts
  lasting through the first half of the week

- Daily shower and storm chances, maximized in the afternoon and
  evening hours, bring the potential for gusty winds, frequent
  lightning strikes, and localized flooding

- Above normal rain chances are forecast late in the week as a
  disturbance slowly approaches the area

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Today-Tonight...An area of deep moisture convergence led to the
redevelopment of showers and lightning storms early this morning,
stretching from western Osceola County to the northern Brevard and
Volusia coasts. A few of these storms were prolific lightning
producers, especially from Titusville to Playalinda Beach. MRMS 3-
hour estimates approached nearly 4" of rainfall at Kennedy Space
Center (KMLB estimates closer to 6"). Showers are forecast to
dissipate and move offshore by 4 AM, gradually unwinding as the
environment loses support for organized convection.

Heat, humidity, and afternoon/evening storms are the main focus
again today. A stationary surface front is forecast to remain draped
over north FL as a weak blocking pattern stays in place over the
eastern CONUS. Light southwesterly flow this morning gradually veers
east-southeast along the coast by midday, marking the initial
development of the afternoon sea breeze. Temperatures once again
make a run at the low to mid 90s, combining with higher humidity to
produce heat indices between 102 and 107 degrees. Keep this in mind
if working or recreating outdoors, making sure to stay cool and
hydrated.

Both the west and east coast breezes are forecast to become
active with isolated showers and storms by early to mid afternoon,
with additional development forecast along the eventual sea
breeze collision. Today, this collision will be a little farther
inland, which is where the highest rain chances (60-70%) are
focused. Weak steering flow out of the south-southwest may help to
push some activity back toward the Atlantic coast, much like
yesterday. The most organized storms will produce wind gusts of
40-50 mph (DCAPE 1000+ around Greater Orlando), frequent
lightning, and torrential rainfall. High rain rates that produce a
quick 1-3" of rainfall will make urban and suburban locations
more susceptible to minor street flooding and ponding of water in
low-lying areas. Locally higher rain totals to 4-5" cannot be
ruled out. By late evening (after 10 PM), most activity will be
winding down, though a lingering shower or storm will remain
possible through early Tuesday morning.

If heading to area beaches today, keep in mind that a moderate risk
of rip currents exists. Always swim near a lifeguard, never enter
the water alone, and if thunder roars, go indoors!

Tuesday-Wednesday...Weak ridging aloft stays put over central
Florida on Tuesday, breaking down on Wednesday as a disturbance
approaches the southeast U.S coast. The stalled surface front
remains in a similar location across north Florida, perhaps drifting
closer to the local area by the latter half of Wednesday. As a
result, we will remain in a similar pattern of hot temperatures and
scattered to numerous showers/storms. Tuesday looks to be the
hottest day of the next seven, with 500mb temps around 18-19C.
Combined with PW of 2.1"+ in place, heat index values will range
from 103-107 in many locations (especially inland). Reaching Heat
Advisory levels (108 degrees) is feasible for several sites across
the interior, so long as convection does not reach those locations
first. With onshore flow returning Wednesday, the east coast breeze
should push a little farther inland, taking the higher rain chances
with it. Heat indices are still forecast to hover in the 102-107
degree range Wed. afternoon. Overnight lows settle in the mid to
upper 70s, prolonging muggy conditions and offering little relief
from the daytime heat.

Thursday-Sunday...An elongated area of low pressure is forecast to
organize into a surface low off of the Carolina coast later in the
week. With the aforementioned stationary front still draped across
Florida and reaching into the western Gulf, there will likely be
some interaction between the low and this front before it begins
to lift northward this weekend. Plumes of higher PW, associated
with a mid level wave, look to move over the FL Peninsula
Thursday through Sunday. Above normal rain chances are forecast as
a result, maximized each afternoon and evening along the sea
breeze and storm-scale boundary collisions. DCAPE looks less
impressive in this moisture-laden environment, so gusty winds from
storms would be a result of water-loaded downdrafts. With a few
more clouds and rain around, temperatures will settle closer to
normal for this time of year (low 90s daytime / low-mid 70s
overnight). Looking ahead into early next week, slightly lower
rain chances could briefly return as mid level energy exits toward
the Gulf.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Ridging begins to lift northward early in the week with a stationary
surface front remaining north of the local waters. SSW winds 5-10 kt
turn onshore in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms
(gusts around 15 kt possible along the coast). Light winds turn ENE
Wednesday and Thursday, becoming southerly again on Friday. Incoming
swell builds seas up to 4-5 ft offshore through Tuesday morning,
followed by decreasing seas mid to late week. Showers and storms are
forecast through the week, especially by Thu.-Fri. as a disturbance
approaches. Locally higher winds (34+ kt) and frequent lightning
strikes will accompany the most organized activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 617 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Winds become more SSW today, allowing the ECSB to develop in the
early afternoon and collide with the WCSB across the interior in
the evening. Initially ISO TSRA/SHRA could form on the sea breezes
as soon as they develop. Coverage/confidence for this initial
round along the coast too low for TEMPOs, and continue VCTS but
can`t rule out short-fused AMDs for TSRA that develop near the
terminals. Activity should push inland of KMLB-KSUA by around 22Z.
Coverage of TSRA/SHRA gradually increases as the sea breezes move
inland, becoming SCT-NUM INVOF MCO and area terminals after 21Z
with the sea breeze collision, which could push back towards KDAB-
KTIX in the late evening. Some uncertainty how late TSRA/SHRA
will persist, but some CAMs push impacts as late as 03Z. High
coverage of TSRA/SHRA today should tap instability and much lower
chances for overnight activity again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  77  92  76 /  60  30  70  30
MCO  95  77  95  77 /  70  40  80  30
MLB  92  78  93  78 /  40  30  50  20
VRB  93  76  93  76 /  40  20  50  20
LEE  94  77  94  77 /  70  40  80  30
SFB  94  77  95  77 /  70  40  80  30
ORL  95  78  95  77 /  70  40  80  30
FPR  93  74  93  74 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley