753
FXUS62 KMLB 120527
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
127 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Scattered rain and storms continue this weekend, along with
  seasonably hot temperatures and peak heat indices in the low
  100s, staying just below Heat Advisory levels.

- A moderate risk for rip currents continues at east central
  Florida beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim
  alone!

- Temperatures closer to normal middle to latter part of next week
  as rain chances remain near to slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Now-Tonight...Cumulus continues to build northward this afternoon,
filtered by plenty of sunshine. Scattered showers and storms are
well under way, emanating from the Space and Treasure Coasts,
gradually shifting westward. The east coast breeze and individual
outflow boundaries will help push convection inland through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Storm motions will be erratic at
times, and gusty winds (40 to 50 mph) may accompany the stronger
storms. The overall risk for flooding is low, though poorly-drained
and low-lying areas could briefly experience ponding of water where
rain rates are high (15z XMR PW 2.33").

Based on radar and guidance trends, a sea breeze collision
near/just west of the Orlando metro is likely after 5 PM,
potentially making for a stormy evening commute. There could be
some push back of rain/storms toward the coast (models are hinting
at Melbourne southward) prior to dissipating around 10-11 PM.
Overnight, rain and storms will stay focused over the Atlantic,
with some activity brushing the Treasure Coast closer to daybreak
Saturday. Temperatures remain mild tonight, ranging through the
70s.

Saturday-Sunday...Little change to the overall pattern is forecast
this weekend as an upper level ridge axis stretches E-W across the
state. Each day may start with isolated showers or a few storms
offshore, approaching the Treasure/southern Space Coasts closer to
daybreak. Light SE winds will be locally enhanced along the east
coast breeze each afternoon as it drifts inland, sparking scattered
showers and lightning storms. Subtle differences in CAM guidance may
alter the exact timing/location of an afternoon/evening sea breeze
collision each day. However, onshore flow both days favors a
collision across interior locations. A strong storm or two cannot
be ruled out, producing gusty, water-loaded downdraft winds at
times. Temperature trends remain similar both days, reaching the
low 90s in the afternoon and retreating into the 70s overnight. It
will continue to feel quite muggy out there, and heat index
values 100-106 degrees are forecast. Stay cool and hydrated,
taking breaks out of the heat!

Monday-Friday...There are some changes on the way next week, moreso
from Wednesday onward, as an upper ridge axis weakens over central
Florida. The northern jet stream becomes more progressive to start
the week with an H5 high building across the central and southern
U.S. Monday-Tuesday. Tuesday into early Wednesday, models indicate
upper level low pressure builds south and west along the Mid
Atlantic/Carolina coast, eventually reaching this part of the state
later Wednesday into Thursday. There is some uncertainty, namely if
the elongated low pressure can organize into an upper low by
Wednesday. Into Thursday and Friday, H5 low pressure retrogrades
toward the Gulf underneath weak ridging to the north.

Surface high pressure expands southward on Tuesday and Wednesday,
tightening the pressure gradient a bit. Monday`s light onshore
flow will strengthen in response by Tuesday and Wednesday, with
NBE probabilities of 20+ mph winds around 30-40% at the coast
Tuesday, expanding inland (40-50%+) Wednesday. There are still
some glaring differences in available moisture advertised between
the models beyond Tuesday, so this forecast maintains rain chances
near or slightly above climatology. With the potential for an
upper low overhead or nearby, and increased onshore flow,
scattered showers and occasional storms look to continue next
week. Above-normal temperatures settle closer to normals beyond
Monday, with the exception of warmer overnight lows closer to the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Outside of scattered showers and storms, boating conditions will be
generally favorable. Light onshore (SSE) flow continues each
afternoon as the east coast breeze moves inland. Winds shift SSW
overnight as a few storms continue over the local Atlantic. Gusty
winds cannot be ruled out with more organized lightning storms. Seas
1-3 ft.

High pressure over the northeastern U.S. expands to the local
Atlantic waters early next week, increasing onshore (ENE) winds. As
a result, less favorable boating conditions are anticipated,
especially from Tuesday onward. Occasional rain and lightning storms
remain possible through the middle of next week. Seas build up to 4-
5+ ft late Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Scattered showers
and storms begin along the sea breeze at the coast around 17-18Z,
then become numerous as they move inland by around 19-20Z. TEMPOs
have been added, with a collision expected near MCO/ISM/SFB
through 0Z. Convection is forecast to linger through at least 1Z
near the sea breeze collision. Winds remain 10 kts or less through
the period, becoming SE behind the sea breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  10
MCO  92  76  92  75 /  60  30  60  20
MLB  90  76  90  75 /  50  20  50  10
VRB  89  74  89  73 /  60  20  50  10
LEE  92  76  91  76 /  60  30  60  20
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  60  30  60  10
ORL  91  77  91  77 /  60  30  60  20
FPR  89  74  89  73 /  60  20  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Wishard