214
FXUS62 KMLB 061728
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
128 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into
  early next week.

- Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic
will drift southward towards the Bahamas today, dragging the ridge
axis into south Florida. Meanwhile, the upper level high over
south Texas will expand its axis farther eastward through the
Gulf, towards the Florida peninsula. Ridging through the column
and the continued influence of the SAL give confidence that the
NBM PoPs are overzealous once again today. While slightly cooler
than yesterday, forecast 500mb temperatures around -6.5 to -7C and
modest lapse rates do not support the widespread 50-70% PoPs from
the NBM. Instead, have trended towards MOS and CONSAll guidance,
with PoPs generally 30-40% across the area. CAMs suggest the
highest coverage once again occurring along and north of the I-4
corridor, with the lowest chances across southern portions of the
forecast area. Similarly to Thursday, should a storm be able to
take advantage of drier air in the mid-levels, wind gusts up to 50
mph will be possible, along with the threat for lightning strikes
and locally heavy rainfall. Any showers or storms will peak in
activity from mid to late afternoon, then drift off of the coast
into the evening hours with dry conditions then prevailing
overnight.

With the ridge axis south of the forecast area, southwesterly flow
is forecast to prevail across east central Florida. This will lead
to a more dominant west coast sea breeze, helping to pin the east
coast breeze at or near the coast. Thus, little relief from hot
temperatures is expected this afternoon, with highs reaching the
lower 90s. Lingering moisture across the area will also lead to
humid conditions and heat indices from 100-105 degrees. Warm
temperatures will continue overnight, with lows in the lower to
mid-70s.

This Weekend...The pattern generally continues through the
weekend, with the ridge axis remaining south of the local area,
though the ridge over the western Atlantic will elongate/drift
eastward through the period. Slightly drier air (PWATs closer to
1.5" than 1.75") will be the main difference. Combined with
continued warm (~-7C) 500mb temperatures, have continued to
undercut the NBM through the weekend. PoPs 20-30% Saturday and
30-40% Sunday. Increasingly drier air could support a few stronger
wind gusts, should storms develop and be able to take advantage of
it. Temperatures will creep higher into Sunday, with highs
reaching the lower to mid-90s. Continued southwesterly flow will
limit the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Heat
indices remaining around 98-103 degrees.

Next Week...The ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic
next week, as the ridge axis drifts northward through the local
area. Meanwhile, a series of weak upper-level shortwaves are
forecast to pass through the Deep South. As the ridge axis moves
northward, higher moisture will return to east central Florida,
advected in by southerly flow. The east coast sea breeze will
drift increasingly inland, with a collision over the interior.
Higher shower and storm chances return, though likely not with
enough coverage to support the 90% produced by the NBM. Thus, have
gone with a more seasonable 50-60% each day next week. Temperatures
will remain hot through at least Tuesday, before a more dominant
east coast sea breeze develops into late week. Highs remaining in
the lower to mid-90s early in the week, then upper 80s to lower
90s for the rest of the period. Heat indices 100-105 remain
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week next
week, as high pressure lingers near to the local area. The main
threat will be scattered offshore- moving showers and storms in
the late afternoon and evening hours each day. South to
southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along the coast each
afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the sea breeze develops,
but remains pinned through at least this weekend. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Convective line of showers and isold TSRA from KLEE to 10N KZPH at
1725Z will continue to progress eastward into mid to late
afternoon. Added some short TEMPO TSRA windows for KSFB-KDAB-KMCO
with eastward propagating storms through 23z. Continued VCTS for
KISM-KTIX corridor and no mention for now from KMLB-KSUA as most
of the convection should stay north of the Treasure Coast. Expect
VFR conds overnight into Sat morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  93  73  93 /  10  30  10  40
MCO  74  93  74  94 /  10  30  10  40
MLB  74  91  73  91 /  20  30  10  30
VRB  73  91  72  91 /  10  30  10  30
LEE  74  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  40
SFB  74  94  74  94 /  10  30  10  40
ORL  75  93  75  93 /  10  30  10  40
FPR  73  90  72  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Volkmer