395
FXUS62 KMLB 261105
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
705 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Increasing moisture through early next week and beyond will
  allow rain chances to return to near and above normal values.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon & evening
  (2-5" totals within reach). In addition, a few strong to severe
  storms will be in play with potential strong to damaging wind
  gusts of 50-60 mph.

- Highs in the low to mid 90s will continue, with peak heat
  indices reaching 102-107F each afternoon, and potentially
  nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the
  area into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Current-Tonight...Yet another hot day on tap, with max temps
generally in the L90s south of a central Osceola-Melbourne line and
M90s northward (ISOLD U90s possible) with peak heat indices
continuing 102-107F ahead of sea breezes and precipitation. Expect a
day similar to yesterday with surrounding offices standing down for
now on another HT.Y issuance, which could be re-visited with next
shift. As such, will continue to monitor for Heat Advisory criteria
(108-110F). Consideration of timing of sea breezes, clouds, precip
will be key. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk (ISOLD Extreme)
conditions will continue. Residents and visitors planning to spend
extended periods of time outdoors will need to remain adequately
hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning
in order to avoid developing heat-related illness. Lows continue in
the 70s with conditions muggy.

Deep moisture (PWATs well above 2") surge across ECFL. A weak
pressure gradient remains in place with associated ridge axis
south/east of the area and light W/NW flow forecast. The ECSB will
develop but it will be delayed with slower movement inland during
the afternoon. The offshore flow remains fairly deep, but very
light. There will be a weakness in mid-level ridging across the
region with NW/WNW flow overhead. It remains fairly warm aloft with
500 mb temps at -4.5C to -6.0C, though there will be occasional weak
shortwave impulses embedded in the flow that will aid diurnal
convection. Initial convection will develop near the east coast by
late morning and early afternoon with coverage and intensity
increasing across the eastern FL peninsula by late day as stronger
boundary collisions occur. Storm steering likely light NWRLY at 5-10
mph as local CAMs show convection "zippering" southward along the
sea breeze boundary, though slow movement and multiple rounds for
some could increase precip totals locally (2-5") with minor/nuisance
flooding resulting. Continue to cap PoPs at 70% areawide and the
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps much of the eastern FL
peninsula in a Marginal (5-14%) Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

In addition to a heavy rainfall threat, The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has placed Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, and north Brevard
counties under a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms today. Lightning
strikes and gusty winds 50-60 mph locally will also be possible with
stronger convection. Activity will gradually diminishing across the
peninsula through the mid-late evening.

Mon-Sat...Persistent pattern developing for the week ahead as the
Atlc ridge axis remains south of the area thru the extended. The
offshore flow at 925 mb strengthens from Mon onward and the ECSB
will be hard-pressed to develop Mon/Tue (if at all) with very
limited movement inland, then not likely over the remainder of the
period. PWAT values remain stout and nearly 2" or above each day. A
frontal boundary is still forecast to drop towards north FL mid-week
and remaining quasi-stationary into late week well north of ECFL.
The pattern aloft will remain rather "troughy" along the Atlc
Seaboard extending south into the FL peninsula, thus allowing
periodic shortwave features to dive across the area enhancing
diurnal convection daily. SCT-NMRS (30-70%) PoPs (aftn/eve) each
day. Main focus will be on heavy rainfall potential on top of
frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds with storms.

No real break in sight with high temps (90-96F) and peak heat
indices continuing to average 102-107F each afternoon ahead of sea
breeze/storms. Will continue to monitor for the need of any Heat
Advisories, as portions of ECFL could still see heat index values
reach around 108-110F. Heat safety will remain key for residents and
visitors. Adequate hydration, frequent breaks in the shade or air
conditioning, and dressing in lightweight, lightly colored clothing
if spending extended periods of time outdoors will help reduce the
chance of developing heat illness for the upcoming week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The Atlc ridge axis remains shunted south of the local waters
thru next week. The ECSB may be delayed this afternoon but will
likely form with slow movement inland. This feature will most
likely be pinned at the coast Mon/Tue should it develop at all,
and most likely will not make an appearance thru the remainder of
the week due to a deepening and strengthening offshore wind
component. Wind speeds may approach 15-20 kts (esp offshore)
occasionally Tue night-Thu night with Cautionary Statements
potentially necessary here. Seas 2-3 ft but may build to 4-5 ft
well offshore surrounding stretches of stronger offshore winds.

Increasing shower/lightning storm potential into next week as
moisture surges into the area. Mariners will need to keep an eye to
the sky westward during the afternoon/evening as activity will be
offshore-moving. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection.
Some storms could become strong to marginally severe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 705 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

An active afternoon and evening is forecast with scattered to
numerous showers and storms. VCTS mentioned at all terminals
around 18Z. TSRA TEMPOs have been added at most sites no earlier
than 19Z, and have leveraged PROB30s at LEE/DAB/TIX where
confidence is slightly lower. Winds mostly remain less than 10
kts, except in vicinity of storms. Light southwest winds shift
west-northwest by late morning. A delayed and slow moving sea
breeze will shift winds east along the coast this afternoon and
evening while interior winds may shift south late in the day as
the sea breeze struggles to move far inland. Most convection
diminishes by 02Z, but cannot rule out a lingering shower or storm
a little later.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  92  76 /  70  50  60  10
MCO  96  78  94  77 /  70  30  70  30
MLB  92  77  92  76 /  70  20  70  20
VRB  92  75  93  75 /  60  20  60  30
LEE  95  79  93  78 /  60  30  70  30
SFB  95  78  93  77 /  70  40  70  30
ORL  95  78  93  78 /  70  30  70  30
FPR  92  74  92  74 /  70  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law