575
FXUS62 KMLB 072004
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
404 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

- There is a low threat for lightning storms producing gusty winds
  tonight mainly Orlando north, and a lingering low threat for
  storms south of Orlando Tuesday.

- Low rain chances after Tuesday and turning cooler this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Current...Sea breeze is pinned to the coast with scattered showers
lifting NE within a patch of increased PWats. These showers will
get a boost as they interact with the sea breeze boundary at the
coast and a few could develop into lightning storms but they will
push quickly offshore. The cloud cover has probably squashed any
record highs over the interior but Vero Beach has at least tied
their record high of 90F (see below).

Tonight...Band of showers and storms over the eastern Gulf and FL
panhandle will reach our northern sections late this evening,
weakening somewhat as it does. CAMs are in decent agreement with
timing associated with the front arriving at Lake county 10 PM-
Midnight and the I-4 corridor/metro Orlando 11PM-2AM. Here, across
Lake, VOlusia, Seminole and Orange counties, the environment will
be marginally favorable for a strong storm or two, with gusty
winds being the primary threat. Southward, instability becomes
more limited, with more shallow convection and a very low chance
of lightning storms. The showers and isolated storms will reach
south Brevard, Okeechobee and Treasure coast during the overnight
and will bleed into the morning hours of Tue.

Tuesday...The front and assocd NW wind shift is forecast to be
located over our southern counties at 8 AM roughly from OBE-VRB
and will push south of Jupiter by Noon. Drier air will begin to
filter into northern sections so after a slight chance for showers
Lake/Volusia counties early, rest of the day should be dry. Deeper
moisture will remain over southern sections and with some daytime
heating, expect highest rain chances across Okeechobee and
Treasure coast (60-70%). The sfc NW flow behind the front will be
quite shallow with stronger W/SW flow just above the sfc. Upper
level support assocd with mid level trough will remain well to the
west, so the environment will be marginally supportive of
lightning storms. Those that form will be capable of gusty winds,
occasional cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Wed-Sun...Weak low pressure forms along the stalled front near the
northern Bahamas Tue night and Wed. This will produce a north wind
flow, breezy at the coast and cooler. Winds veer Thu NE to E and
this will transport some low level moisture and isolated coastal
showers pushing onshore. A reinforcing cool front is forecast to
cross the area Fri night with little chance for rain due to a
dearth of moisture. Temperatures still a bit below normal
Wednesday gradually increase to above normal Friday, then get
knocked back down to slightly below normal this weekend, esp at
night with lows in the 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

The tight southerly pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold
front will weaken and veer SW tonight. So wind speeds will drop
below 20 knots overnight and SCAs should be allowed to expire. The
front will push into central FL tonight and south of Jupiter Inlet
by afternoon Tue with a wind shift out of the NW and speeds 10-15
knots. A weak low pressure system develops over the northern
Bahamas Tue night/Wed which will tighten the N/NE gradient and
support around 15 knots. Winds veer NE to E Thu and although
speeds remain below 20 knots, seas in the Gulf Stream are
expected to build to 7-9ft late Wednesday into Thursday as the
current interacts with local winds and swell from the low to the
east. Flow veers offshore Friday ahead of another frontal passage
Fri night with NW flow 10-15 knots returning Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions through this evening. A few showers are moving into
the area from the west, mainly KISM/MCO. Have added a quick tempo
for -shra for these showers over the next hour for those
locations. Breezy/windy and gusty this afternoon with SW winds at
15-20 KT with gusts 25-30 KT. The east coast sea breeze may be
able to form from VRB southward later this afternoon and move as
far inland as I-95, backing the winds to the S/SE. While some
models hint at isolated showers forming from VRB-SUA this
afternoon along the stalled ECSB, confidence remains too low this
will occur to put in TAF at this time. Increasing rain chances
into this evening across northern terminals, mainly along and
north of I-4 corridor, ahead of the approaching cold front. Have
kept VCSH starting at 01Z at KLEE and 03Z at KISM/KMCO/KSFB/KDAB,
05Z at KTIX, at 07Z at MLB, and to KVRB-KSUA around 09Z. Have
added a TEMPO for -SHRA for a couple hours starting at 03Z for
KLEE, and 04Z for KMCO/KISM/KSFB/DAB. May need eventually add
TEMPOs for TIX southward, but band of showers and storms are
forecast to be on a weakening trend at that point. MVFR CIGs are
forecast build in tonight across the north, mainly from KISM/KMCO
northward. There will still be a low potential for an isolated
strong storm or two, especially north of KMCO as this activity
initially moves into the area this evening. Winds diminish to
around 10 KT tonight with winds veering NW behind the front. Have
VCSH lingering across the north until 16-19Z Tuesday from MCO
northward.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Record Highs Temperatures for April 7th and last year set:

April 7th:       High
Daytona Beach   90 1956
Leesburg        89 2023
Sanford         91 2014
Orlando         92 1908
Melbourne       91 2018
Vero Beach      90 2018
Fort Pierce     92 2014

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  75  59  76 /  60  20  10  20
MCO  65  77  59  79 /  50  40  10  20
MLB  65  76  62  77 /  50  60  30  30
VRB  66  77  61  77 /  50  70  40  30
LEE  62  76  57  79 /  60  20  10  10
SFB  63  78  58  78 /  50  30  10  20
ORL  65  77  60  79 /  50  30  10  20
FPR  66  78  61  77 /  50  70  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson