465
FXUS62 KMLB 041743
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1243 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at
  Atlantic beaches today. This risk remains at least Moderate
  through the middle of this week.

- Expect a steady warming trend through late this week and the
  weekend, with only small chances for showers on Friday, mainly
  for the Treasure Coast.

- Much colder air is expected to arrive Monday and Tuesday of next
  week. The risk for wind chills dipping into the 30s by early
  Tuesday has increased for areas northwest of Orlando.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida rests beneath a pair of unusually strong H5 ridge axes this
afternoon, one across the W Atlantic and the other centered along
the Texas coast. A mid-level trough is located north of the Yucatan
Peninsula. This moisture-starved feature slowly pushes east toward
Florida later in the week, further weakening as it does so. By
the upcoming weekend, ensemble members indicate that a meridional
pattern quickly sets up over the U.S. This is courtesy of jet stream
energy, currently over the N Pacific, carving out an unseasonably
deep trough over the Great Lakes and Appalachians by Sunday and
Monday. Agreement in the large-scale pattern is good among the
04/00z members, but the exact timing and depth of the trough will
determine the local impacts. The pattern looks progressive, with
upper heights building again by the middle of next week.

Near the surface, high pressure will move off the Carolinas
on Wednesday while a weak cold front settles into the Deep
South. Another high-pressure area will move off the mid-Atlantic
coast this weekend, its axis extending southwestward toward Florida
on Saturday. A stronger cold front, associated with the deep trough
digging across the Great Lakes, is expected to move through Florida
late Sunday into Monday. After this front passes, winds will turn
from the north and northeast as a 1030+ mb cP surface anticyclone
dives out of the Canadian Prairies and into the Southeast U.S.

Total moisture values return slightly above normal from Thursday
through this weekend before sharply decreasing behind the cold front
early next week. Boundary-layer thermal profiles indicate subtle
warming through this weekend as ensemble-averaged H925 temps rise
to +18 to +20C - or the 75th to 90th percentile of climatology. By
late Monday and Tuesday of next week, these values fall to +8 to
+10C behind the strong cold front - near to just above the minimum
moving average (< 10th percentile) of climatology.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Tonight - Friday...

Largely tranquil weather persists across the district with
no significant impacts. The only rain chances we have during
this period come late Thursday into Friday, particularly south
of Melbourne, where moisture interacts with a very weak passing
disturbance. Expect increased cloudiness over the Treasure and Space
Coasts on Thursday and Friday as well. Despite this, comfortable
afternoon highs (upper 70s/low 80s) are forecast with lows ranging
from the upper 50s/low 60s northwest of Orlando to the upper 60s/low
70s close to Stuart. Winds will generally remain onshore, NE to E,
up to 10 mph.

A moderate to at times high risk of rip currents will persist at
area beaches.

Saturday - Much of Sunday...

Winds turn south and eventually southwest this weekend as the
next cold front draws closer. Ahead of the front, we should turn
warmer with mid to upper 80s common each afternoon. Skies should
be partly to mostly sunny. Overall, this looks to be our best
beach and boating weather of the coming week or more.

Late Sunday - Next Tuesday...

A brief surge of moisture gives us a 20% chance for showers from
late Sunday into Sunday night as the strong cold front passes
through the state. The bigger story will be the breezy northerly
winds dragging unseasonably chilly air down the peninsula early next
week. Just how cold it gets in Central Florida will be dependent
on the track of the high pressure center and just how quickly
we begin to pick up an onshore wind component. For now, we are
anticipating a wide range of high temps on Monday, from barely
reaching 70 near Leesburg to the low 80s south of St Lucie Inlet.

The coldest morning currently appears to arrive on Tuesday,
when widespread 40s are forecast except along the immediate
Space/Treasure Coasts. Worst-case scenario guidance places at
least a 10% chance of low temperatures in the upper 30s generally
northwest of Greater Orlando. Over this same area, our forecast
wind chills reach the upper 30s on Tuesday, and there is a ~10%
chance of wind chills as low as 33-35F. Bottom line, our first blast
of unusually cold temperatures appears to be on the way. After
cool highs in the 60s on Tuesday, we look to see a quick
transition to milder temperatures later next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Boating conditions continue to gradually improve as high pressure
drifts off the Carolinas. Late in the week, a reinforcing area of
high pressure also passes north of the local Atlantic. Moderate
onshore winds persist through the end of the work week before
gradually becoming southerly this weekend. The next significant
cold front arrives late Sunday or Monday with deteriorating boating
conditions thereafter.

Still somewhat brisk along the Treasure Coast this evening,
with occasional poor boating conditions. ENE winds decrease
to 10-15 KT tonight, becoming NE on Thursday and SE by Friday,
up to 12 KT. 5-6 FT seas in the Gulf Stream tonight. Thereafter,
seas 3-5 FT on Wednesday, diminishing to 2-4 FT on Thu, then 2-3
FT Friday - Sunday. A few showers and a slight chance for
lightning late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1225 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Mainly VFR conds forecast. Marine stratocu will continue moving
onshore with ocnl VFR CIGs. NE winds 10-15 knots spreading inland
this afternoon with gusts around 20 kt esp. at the coast. Winds
decrease and back north at interior terminals (MCO) after 00Z.
Winds turn East Thu around 10 knots and not as gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  79  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  62  81  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  67  80  66  79 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  67  81  66  80 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  59  81  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  61  81  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  67  81  66  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly