594
FXUS62 KMLB 221004
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
604 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- A HIGH Risk of deadly rip currents and rough surf will persist
  at area beaches today and into this weekend. Do not enter the
  Ocean!

- Offshore flow and a moist airmass will lead to higher shower
  and storm chances (~70-80%) during the afternoon and early
  evening hours today and into the weekend.

- Poor boating conditions will linger over the gulf stream waters
  today and Saturday, with hazardous conditions near inlets during
  the outgoing tide.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Today-Sunday...A wetter pattern will continue today and into the
weekend as a weak front pushes southward and eventually stalls
across north Florida into the weekend. This will keep the Atlantic
ridge axis south of the area, with an offshore (W/SW) flow
persisting across east central Florida. The front will also focus a
moist airmass across the region, with PW values 2.0-2.3 inches.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop and push
eastward across east central Florida and offshore each afternoon and
evening. Rain chances remain high, up to 70-80 percent today and
around 70 percent Saturday and Sunday.

Similar to yesterday, some lingering pockets of drier air aloft
may still lead to some stronger storms each day, producing
frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts to 45-55 mph, and
heavy downpours. However, a very low threat will exist for a
severe storm or two, producing localized damaging wind gusts to 60
mph. Also, can`t completely rule out a funnel cloud or brief
tornado with any storms that can interact or develop along the
stalled sea breeze near the coast, mainly south of the Cape this
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will occur with
any heavier showers/storms. Repeated rounds of heavier rainfall
into the weekend could increase the threat of mostly minor
flooding issues. A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall exists near
to NW of the I-4 corridor on Saturday and north of Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee County Sunday.

Higher coverage of showers and storms and cloud cover should limit
highs to near normal values in the low 90s most locations, but could
still see a few spots along the coast reach the mid 90s this
afternoon. Humid conditions will still lead to peak heat index
values around 102-107 degrees each afternoon, before
convection/cloud cover increases across the area.

Monday-Thursday...Stalled front will linger across north Florida
early this week and potentially shift southward into central
Florida into the middle of next week. This will continue above
normal rain chances across the region, with PoPs as high as
60-70%. An offshore flow will continue to transport scattered to
numerous showers and storms across east central Florida and
offshore each afternoon and evening early in the week. However,
steering winds then weaken as front is forecast to move into the
area, giving the sea breeze a better chance to move inland each
afternoon and focusing greatest coverage of showers and storms
inland. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible each
day. Highs remain near to slightly above normal, mostly in the low
90s, but may see mid 90s inland on Tuesday. Peak heat index
values will still continue to range from 102-107 degrees through
at least early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Today-Sunday...Poor boating conditions will persist across the
gulf stream waters today and into the weekend for lingering seas
up to 6 feet. Otherwise, seas will range from 3-5 feet closer to
the coast. However, long (11-13 sec) period swells will also lead
to hazardous boating conditions at inlets during the outgoing
tides today and through the weekend. A weak front moving southward
and stalling across north Florida will maintain offshore winds
out of the west-southwest for much of the period, but may become
more variable into this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
tries to form.

Wind speeds forecast to remain below 15 knots. However, a wet
pattern will persist, with scattered to numerous showers and
storms pushing eastward and offshore each afternoon and evening.
Some stronger storms will be possible each day, producing frequent
lightning strikes and gusty winds near or in excess of 34 knots.

Monday-Tuesday...W/SW winds (speeds remaining below 15 knots) will
continue across the waters into early next week, with scattered to
numerous offshore moving showers and storms (some strong) still
occurring each afternoon and evening. Seas will slowly decrease
from 3-5 feet Monday to 2-4 feet Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 604 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The signs of an active day underway on the Nature Coast where
showers/storms are making their way off the Gulf. Handled with
VCSH at LEE to start. Elsewhere, VCTS will kick off after midday
through early evening. TEMPOs were required with overall coverage
expected from 60-80%, including at MCO (18-21Z peak timing).
Activity will move west to east, and there remains a low threat of
35+KT gusts. Prevailing winds remain SW/W 5-12 KT, except along
the pinned sea breeze which has the best chance of reaching
VRB/FPR/SUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  89  75 /  80  50  70  40
MCO  93  76  91  76 /  80  40  70  30
MLB  93  76  92  76 /  70  40  70  40
VRB  94  74  93  74 /  70  40  70  40
LEE  88  76  88  76 /  80  50  70  40
SFB  91  76  90  76 /  80  40  70  30
ORL  91  76  90  76 /  80  40  70  30
FPR  94  73  93  73 /  70  40  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil