969
FXUS62 KMLB 210001
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all east central Florida
  counties between 10 AM and 7 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to
  112F. Practice heat safety!

- Slight relief from high heat indices this weekend, with
  increased coverage of showers and storms, but high temperatures
  persist in the lower to mid-90s.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each
  afternoon through early next week. Gusty winds to 50-55 mph,
  small hail, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours will be the
  main storm hazards.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Storms continue to fire up this afternoon following a warm, humid
start to the day. Some storms could have strong gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Quiet conditions return
overnight. Tomorrow will have a similar setup featuring the return
of afternoon showers and storms. A heat advisory is looking less
likely for tomorrow as heat indices should remain below HA
criteria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Today-Tonight...Little change to the overall pattern today. A
stalled boundary over the Southeast keeps the Atlantic ridge axis
southeast of the Florida peninsula at the surface. Aloft, an upper
level low lingers over the the area. Light offshore flow
continues today, initially delaying the development of the sea
breeze to around 2 PM. Winds then back southeast at the coast and
increase to around 10 mph. As the sea breeze moves inland through
the day, this will be the primary focus for afternoon convection.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-60%) are forecast to
develop along the boundary, then push inland. Propagation of
storms will become increasingly erratic due to light storm
motions, with cells developing along outflow boundary collisions.
Upper level support from the low, drier air in the mid levels
(DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) due to a bit of Saharan Air Layer (SAL),
and steep low level lapse rates will lead to a few strong storms,
capable of wind gusts to 50-55 mph. A few locally higher gusts
will be possible. Other hazards include lightning strikes, locally
heavy rainfall, and small hail (500 mb temperatures near -8 C).
Convection looks to linger, mainly over the interior, through much
of the evening hours. However, expect storms to diminish by
midnight.

Hot August temperatures persist today, with highs reaching the
lower to mid-90s. Humid conditions will continue to produce max
heat indices between 108 to 112 degrees. Thus, another Heat
Advisory has been issued from 10 AM to 7 PM for all of the
forecast area, with increased precipitation and cloud cover
helping to moderate heat indices by the early evening. Overnight,
warm and muggy conditions continue, with lows in the mid to upper
70s.

Friday-Sunday...The upper level low lingers over the forecast area
Friday, before it then weakens and is picked up by an upper level
trough digging through the eastern US this weekend. At the
surface, southwesterly flow under 10 mph continues, as the
Atlantic ridge remains across South Florida. Near normal coverage
of showers and storms will persist through the weekend, with PoPs
40-60%. Strong to borderline severe wind gusts will remain a
threat from any storms, as another wave of SAL approaches the
peninsula. Steering flow increases slightly through the period
(from 5 kts to 10 kts) out of the southwest, helping to keep the
highest convection and the east coast sea breeze over the eastern
half of the state. Showers and storms will remain focused during
the afternoon hours, but will linger into the evenings before
drier conditions develop by around midnight.

While little changes with the overall pattern, drier air (PWATs
below 2") looks to advect into the area this weekend. This will
help with peak heat indices, ending the streak of advisory or near
advisory conditions. However, additional Heat Advisories will be
possible for at least portions of the area once again Friday.
Highs remain in the lower to mid-90s, despite the somewhat lower
humidity and apparent temperatures will linger at 100-106 degrees.

Monday-Thursday...The stalled boundary lifts northward next week,
allowing the Atlantic ridge axis to also move northward across the
area. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge over the southern
plains looks to shunt an upper level trough across the Florida
peninsula. Locally, the most appreciable change will be for
southerly flow to prevail, aiding the east coast sea breeze inland
each afternoon. While the highest coverage of showers and storms
will move inland, in turn, widespread scattered to numerous
coverage remains forecast, with upper level support from the
trough. High temperatures moderate into the lower 90s, but high
humidity will maintain peak heat indices 100-107. Fortunately,
heat indices are forecast to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail. The Atlantic ridge
axis remains south of the local waters through the weekend,
maintaining overall light offshore flow. Will see the ridge shift
northward next week, backing winds southerly. Regardless, daily
sea breezes at the coast will produce south to southeasterly
winds, with flow overall around 10 kts or less. Seas 1-3 ft.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each
afternoon. Chances for offshore-moving convection increases into
the weekend, especially during the evenings. Storms will be
capable of wind gusts in excess of 35 kts and the strongest could
produce gusts to near 50 kts, in addition to lightning strikes and
small hail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Isolated showers and lightning storms are ongoing, mainly south of
Cape Canaveral. Any lingering activity is forecast to diminish
over the next hour or two. Then dry conditions overnight. Light
and variable winds tonight will become west to southwesterly and
increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning Friday. The east coast sea
breeze will form in the afternoon, turning the winds onshore along
the coast. Scattered showers and storms may push across ECFL from
the west into early afternoon, with additional scattered showers
and storms forecast to form along the sea breeze. Have included
VCTS starting at 18Z across the interior, and VCSH along he coast
starting at 18Z and then VCTS starting at 20Z. Winds will then
become light once again Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  76  92 /  10  60  10  50
MCO  76  95  76  94 /  30  60  20  30
MLB  77  93  77  93 /  10  50  30  50
VRB  76  93  75  93 /  10  40  30  60
LEE  76  93  76  91 /  20  50  10  30
SFB  77  94  77  93 /  20  60  20  40
ORL  77  94  77  93 /  30  60  20  30
FPR  76  92  75  92 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pearce
AVIATION...Watson