531
FXUS62 KMLB 281734
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
134 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of east central
  Florida today, with heat indices 102-109 degrees.

- High temperatures in the 90s and humid conditions will maintain
  hot and humid conditions through at Wednesday. Additional Heat
  Advisories will be possible.

- Increasing coverage of showers and storms late week and into the
  weekend; Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Thursday and
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today-Tonight...A strong mid/upper level ridge over the plains
drifts southeastward today, as a trough dips through the
Northeast. Locally, ample moisture, with PWATs 2-2.15", and upper
level perturbations will support scattered shower and
thunderstorm development this afternoon. PoPs are forecast between
30-50%, highest south of Orlando. Coverage looks to begin after 2
PM, peaking in the late afternoon and early evening, before
activity drifts offshore and drier conditions prevail overnight.
Prevailing SW flow around 10 mph will pin the east coast sea
breeze, which may locally enhance any storms. The main threats
today will be lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 55 mph,
thanks to DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates.
But, slow storm motions and deep moisture could lead to locally
heavy rainfall and minor flooding in low- lying and poor drainage
areas.

A Heat Advisory has been issued once again today for areas from
Orange and northern Brevard Counties northward. Humid conditions
and temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in this area are forecast
to produce heat indices up to 109 degrees. A limiting factor will
be an earlier start to convection than forecast. However, mid-
level cloud cover looks to be lower than yesterday, favoring
warmer conditions. Regardless, conditions will be hot and muggy
across east central Florida. Be sure to practice heat safety
today. Know the signs of heat stroke and take action, if needed.
Very warm conditions persist through tonight, with overnight lows
in the mid to upper 70s.

Wednesday...The upper level ridge axis stretches eastward towards
Florida Wednesday, as a surface front slowly sags through the
Southeast. Slightly below normal PoPs are forecast under upper
level convergence. However, deep moisture lingers over the
peninsula, supporting scattered coverage in the afternoon and
evening (30-40%). Dry air in the mid levels maintains DCAPE values
near 1100 J/kg and the threat for a few strong wind gusts near 55
mph, in addition to lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.
SW flow increases as the pressure gradient tightens between the
front and the Atlantic ridge axis south of the area. Winds
increase to near 15 mph Wednesday afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph.
Likely the hottest day of the week, highs reach the lower to
mid-90s once again. Additional Heat Advisories will be possible,
as heat indices reach 105-110 degrees.

As showers and storms drift offshore in the evening, drier
conditions develop Wednesday night. However, will see isolated
to scattered activity drift southward into areas north of I-4 into
early Thursday morning, as the front continues southward.
Overnight lows may not dip below 80 in some locations Wednesday
night.

Thursday-Monday...Southwesterly flow prevails through most of the
remainder of the forecast period, as the Atlantic ridge axis
remains pinned the Straits of Florida. A low pressure system
moves offshore from the Northeast US Thursday, dragging a cold
front into the Southeast, where is it forecast to stall in the
vicinity of north Florida. Support near the front and PWATs in
excess of 2" will lead to above normal coverage of showers and
storms into the weekend. PoPs 50-70+% across the area will linger
into Sunday, before high pressure builds aloft early next week.
Will need to monitor the threat for some locally heavy rainfall,
with multiple rounds of training showers and storms possible. Most
of the forecast area has been highlighted in a Marginal Risk (1/4)
for excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday. Enough lingering drier
air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts
Thursday, with peak gusts near 50 mph.

High coverage of clouds and precipitation will give east central
Florida a break from the persistent higher heat indices. However,
highs are still forecast to reach the lower 90s each afternoon
into the weekend, creeping towards the mid-90s early next week. In
addition, peak heat indices are still forecast to reach 100-105.
Breezy SW flow with gusts 20-25 mph Thursday will diminish into
the weekend, as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail, as the
Atlantic ridge axis remains south of the local area. SW flow will
increase to around 10 kts this afternoon, pinning the east coast
sea breeze. Near normal shower and thunderstorm coverage (30-50%)
is forecast, with activity developing over land, then moving
offshore in the afternoon and evening. Seas 2-3 ft.

Tonight-Thursday Night...A low pressure system moves offshore
from the Northeast US through Thursday, tightening the pressure
gradient locally. SW flow increases to 15-20 kts well offshore
late tonight. Winds then around 15 kts by daybreak across the
local waters reach 20-25 kts briefly Wednesday night again well
offshore, before returning to near 15 kts Thursday. Seas build to
2-4 ft, with up to 5 ft possible north of Sebastian Inlet
Wednesday night. Lower than normal coverage of showers and storms
will become above normal by Thursday. Lingering dry air aloft will
support a few strong storms with wind gusts to near 45 kts, as
well as lightning strikes.

Friday-The Weekend...Boating conditions improve into Friday and
the weekend, as SW flow diminishes to 10-15 kts and seas return
to 1-3 ft. However, high coverage of showers and thunderstorms
persists through the weekend. Boaters should remain alert for
offshore-moving storms, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered showers and storms ongoing this afternoon, mainly around
Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Southwest winds around 10
KT, gusting to around 20 KT at times mainly along the coast, will
shift south to south- southeast along the immediate coast as the
sea breeze struggles to move inland this afternoon. Additional scattered
showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and evening with
the latest CAM guidance showing the highest coverage into this
evening will be from MCO to TIX southward. VCTS remains mentioned
at all sites but DAB after 18Z/19Z. Have added TEMPOs for MCO,
ISM, TIX and MLB where the greatest coverage looks to be from
20-23Z for MVFR conditions. Have maintained PROB30s at
VRB/FPR (20Z-23Z). Any lingering activity will diminish after 00Z
with mostly dry conditions forecast. Southwest winds will become
light overnight before increasing to 10 KT or less by mid morning
on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  95  77  90 /  10  20  50  70
MCO  77  94  78  91 /  10  40  50  70
MLB  77  93  77  90 /  10  30  30  70
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  20  30  20  60
LEE  78  93  78  90 /  10  30  60  70
SFB  78  94  79  91 /  10  30  50  70
ORL  78  93  78  90 /  10  40  50  70
FPR  74  92  75  91 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-
     144-247-347-447.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Watson