315
FXUS62 KMLB 261053
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
653 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

- Strong ridge of high pressure will persist into early next week,
  keeping rain chances much below normal and increasing
  temperatures and heat indices.

- Dangerous, long-lasting heat is forecast this weekend into next
  week.

- Heat Advisory conditions begin today for portions of east
  central Florida and will likely persist for several days. Near
  Extreme Heat conditions possible early next week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Today-Monday...Strong mid-level ridge currently over the SE US
coast will gradually retrograde westward to the lower MS Valley
Mon. Resulting subsidence and compressional warming will promote a
period of much below normal rain chances and dangerous heat
locally. This heat wave looks to be the most significant so far
this summer. High temperatures warm a degree or two each day,
widely ranging the mid to upper 90s across the north interior with
low to mid 90s elsewhere. Monday still looks to be the hottest
day with widespread upper 90s across the interior. Above normal
temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat index
values up to 110F across the I-4 urban corridor this weekend,
ranging 105-109F further south. An increase in moisture early next
week will further produce heat index values near 112F north and
west of I-4 on Monday. While the most significant heat impacts
will occur during the afternoon, expect only gradual relief
through the evening with temperatures slow to fall through the
80s, especially near urban centers. Due to prolonged periods of
daily heat, a Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast near and north
of I-4, particularly on Monday. Low temperatures range the mid to
upper 70s across the north with low to mid 70s across the south.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for Osceola/Brevard counties
northward from 11am-7pm today for peak heat indices up to 110 from
I-4 corridor northward and 104-108 for the remainder of Osceola
and Brevard. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed for
portions of east central Florida in the coming days with near
Extreme Heat conditions possible. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to follow the forecast and plan to take the proper heat
safety actions to prevent heat stress and know the signs of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay
informed.

Winds light and variable today with sfc high overhead with only
a weak sea breeze along the coast up to 10 mph. Record highs look
out of reach along the coast but near record highs are forecast at
Sanford (97 in 2010) and Orlando (98 in 1936).

Tue-Fri...Shortwave energy dives southward around the eastern
periphery of the upper ridge and temporarily bisects this ridge
that extends into the SW Atlc. The combination of slightly
decreasing heights/subsidence and some increase in moisture should
increase rain/storm chances back to more typical coverage (40-60
percent) each aftn. This will bring some relief to the heat but
conditions will remain hot and humid prior to any aftn
rain/storms. Model guidance shows the mid level ridge rebuilding
over the area late week so max temps look to remain well into the
90s with heat indices 105-110.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

High pressure centered over the Florida peninsula today will push
westward into the Gulf by Sunday, maintaining favorable boating
conditions. Variable winds around around 5 knots over the open
Atlc with E-SE winds up to 10 knots behind the sea breeze near the
coast. A weak, reinforcing ridge axis will nose westward across
south Florida early next week and produce a south flow around 10
knots. Seas 1-2 ft through Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Patchy ground fog this morning may lead to some tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions, mainly along the coast through 13Z. Drier airmass and
ridge aloft will limit shower/storm development today, with rain
chances limited to only around 20 percent northwest of the I-4
corridor from late afternoon through early evening. Will therefore
continue to keep any mention of VCSH/VCTS out of the TAFs. VFR
conditions forecast to generally prevail through today into
tonight, with winds mostly light and variable, except increasing
to 8-10 knots out of the east behind the inland moving east coast
sea breeze this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  94  77 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  97  77  97  77 /  10   0  20  10
MLB  91  76  92  77 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  92  73  92  74 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  95  78  97  79 /  20  10  20  10
SFB  96  77  97  78 /  10   0  20   0
ORL  97  78  97  78 /  10   0  20  10
FPR  91  72  92  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Weitlich