846
FXUS62 KMLB 052003
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
403 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- A wet weather pattern will persist through early next week. The
  main storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally
  heavy rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices
  in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
  today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim
  alone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Today-tonight... Upper level high pressure will remain in place as
an upper level trough across the eastern US will continue to slowly
shift south and eastward through the period. At the surface, high
pressure axis will shift southward into central Florida today.
Locally, light south/southwest winds will shift onshore along the
coast this the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea
breeze and more westward across the interior with the west coast sea
breeze. However, the east coast sea breeze is not expected to push
as far inland today, given the deep offshore flow. The sea breeze
collision is forecast to occur a little closer to the coast than
yesterday, generally around the I-95 corridor, later this
afternoon/early evening. Much like yesterday, upper level shortwave
energy will aid in storm formation.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to form this
afternoon (PoP 50-70%). Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
currently moving across the northern CWA from the west coast of
Florida this afternoon, with additional isolated showers forming
along the sea breeze in southern Treasure Coast. Highest coverage of
storms will be along the sea breeze collision, along the I-95
corridor later this afternoon and into early evening. Storm motion
will generally be westerly today, which will bring activity back
towards the coast and offshore into the Atlantic. Forecast soundings
show a very moist profile, with PW values of 2.0-2.3". The
environment supports convection, with plenty of instability (MUCAPE
of 1800-2300 J/kg), sufficient buoyancy (lifted index of -5 to -8),
and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg). However,
temperatures aloft remain rather warm (-5C to -6C at 500 mb).
Because of this, main storm hazards will be frequent lightning,
gusty winds up to 45 mph, and torrential downpours. Quick amounts of
2-4" of rainfall  in a relatively short period of time in these slow-
moving storms will be possible, promoting minor/nuisance flooding in
urban and poor drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
maintains a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for
portions of east central Florida today, mainly from Cape Canaveral
to Lake Kissimmee southward.

Temperatures will be humid with seasonable to slightly above normal
temperatures once again. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid
90s with peak heat indices of 100-107F. Warm and muggy conditions
will continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday-Friday... Upper level high pressure across the Great Plains
will shift eastward through mid next week as the trough over the
eastern US shifts eastward and offshore through early next week. At
the surface, and weak frontal boundary will drop into the Deep south
and northern Florida by early next week. There is some discrepancy
with exactly how far this frontal boundary will make it before it
washes out by mid next week. Regardless, this will result in deep
moisture shifting over the area into at least Tuesday. Drier air
will begin to filter across the area mid-late week. Because of this,
higher coverage of showers and storms are forecast early next week,
with PoPs forecast to be 30-50% on Sunday, before increasing to 70-
80% Monday, 70% areawide on Tuesday and Wednesday, and 40-70%
Thursday and Friday. Storm motion will generally be light and
offshore. Storm hazards will be similar to what they are today. WPC
has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Marginal (level
1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Sunday and Monday. Seasonable
temperatures and humid conditions are forecast each day, with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Warm and muggy conditions will continue
overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Today-Thursday... Generally favorable boating conditions through
the period. High pressure will remain in place through the period.
Light S/SW winds will become S/SE at 10-12 KT each afternoon as
the east coast sea breeze forms. Diurnal offshore-moving
showers/storms into early next week. A few strong storms possible
with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds in
excessive of 34 KT or greater, and heavy downpours. Coverage of
storms will be fairly high into early next week. Seas locally
higher in the vicinity of storms. Seas 2-3 ft today will subside
to 1-2 ft Saturday through Monday, before building to 2-4 ft on
Tuesday, and up to 5 ft in the offshore waters possible by Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue to approach from the
west-northwest this afternoon. In addition, the east coast sea
breeze has initiated showers along the Martin Coast. Prevailing
westerly flow around 6-10 kts has slowed development of the sea
breeze along the rest of the east central Florida coast, and the
sea breeze will struggle to push far inland this afternoon and
evening. VCTS at all terminals this afternoon with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
reductions within thunderstorms. Peak convection should clear from
north to south late this afternoon and into the evening,
lingering across portions of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast a
few hours beyond sunset. Dry conditions are then forecast
overnight. Light south winds into late this evening turn west
again on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  90 /  10  40  40  80
MCO  76  93  76  92 /  20  40  20  80
MLB  75  93  75  91 /  30  40  20  80
VRB  73  91  74  90 /  40  40  20  80
LEE  75  92  75  90 /  10  40  30  80
SFB  76  93  76  91 /  10  50  30  80
ORL  77  93  77  92 /  10  40  20  80
FPR  74  91  74  90 /  30  40  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Law