174
FXUS62 KMLB 041857
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
257 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Holiday plans will be accompanied by numerous showers and storms
  through the weekend, as plentiful moisture and nearby low
  pressure affect the state. The highest coverage will be in the
  afternoon and evening hours.

- The low pressure system east of Jacksonville has a medium (70%)
  chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression.
  Regardless of development, localized heavy rainfall is the
  primary threat for East Central Florida.

- More typical summertime coverage of afternoon and evening storms
  return next week, along with increasing heat and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Showers and storms have developed early
this afternoon, with multiple boundary collisions ongoing west of
I-95 along the Space Coast. Models have struggled to resolve
convection today due to slow storm motions and boundary collision
driven propagation. However, the HRRR seems to be doing the best
so far today. Thus, convection is forecast to continue to
overspread the area through the afternoon, with PoPs around 80%
area-wide. Convection is expected to begin to diminish late
afternoon and into this evening. However, some locations, namely
west of I-4 and the Treasure Coast, could see showers and storms
linger into the evening hours. Keep this in mind for any firework
plans this evening. Have a plan to take SAFE shelter in the event
of a thunderstorm in your area. When thunder roars, go indoors!
Main storm threats today area frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds to 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall leading to minor
flooding.

Drier conditions are forecast to develop across the area by late
evening. However, a few showers will be possible towards morning
along the coast, especially north of the Cape, as Invest 92L
remains northeast of the forecast area. Overnight lows in the
lower to mid-70s are expected.

Saturday-Sunday...What is currently Invest 92L will drift onshore
into the Southeast US through this weekend, while deep moisture
(PWATs 2.15+") remains in place over the local area. Thus, upper
level support (though diminishing) and prevailing southwesterly
flow will continue to produce high coverage of showers and storms
each afternoon and into the evening hours through the holiday
weekend. PoPs 60-80% through Sunday across the area. Slow-moving,
boundary driven storms will continue to be difficult to pin down
to a specific time frame or location due to light steering flow.
However, developing ridging to the south of the local area will
help to increase southwesterly storm motions through the weekend.
Storm threats look to remain the same each day, with the strongest
storms capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to
45-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3" in a short period of
time causing minor flooding. The highest coverage will continue
to be in the afternoons, with convection lingering through the
early evening hours.

South to southwesterly flow will continue each day, backing
southeasterly along the coast as the sea breeze develops in the
afternoon. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Peak heat indices in the 100-105 will maintain a low to
moderate HeatRisk.

Next Week...The Atlantic ridge axis is forecast to build across
the Straits of Florida early next week. Then the axis is expected lift
northward into mid-week, where it will stall across the central
Florida peninsula, as high pressure builds in aloft. High moisture
(PWATs up to 2") looks to linger across the local area, with no
features to clear it out. Combined with south to southwesterly
flow on the north side of the ridge axis, this will lead to
continue coverage of showers and storms each afternoon and
evening. Although, coverage is forecast to be the more typical
50-60% for this time of year. High temperatures remaining in the
lower 90s, while humid conditions lead to apparent temperatures in
the 100-105 degree range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Invest 92L, currently just offshore from Jacksonville, is
forecast to remain north of the local Atlantic waters, before
moving inland along the Southeast coast this weekend. Main impacts
from this system to the local waters will be continued high shower
and thunderstorm chances. Otherwise, generally favorable boating
conditions prevail into early next week, as high pressure builds
into the area. South to southwest winds 10-15 kts each afternoon
will back southeasterly along the coast as the sea breeze
develops. Seas 2-3 ft, though up to 4 ft will be possible well
offshore north of the Cape Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will become numerous
between 18-19Z this afternoon, with all terminals soon to experience
MVFR/IFR conditions as convection develops. Highest confidence will
be from KMCO southward, where wind gusts over 35 knots and
torrential downpours cannot be ruled out. All terminals have TEMPO
for thunderstorm conditions, ending between 22Z and 00Z this
evening. Light prevailing winds overnight becoming southwesterly by
daybreak, with another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms
anticipated again tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  74  90 /  40  80  30  70
MCO  75  88  75  90 /  50  80  40  70
MLB  74  89  75  91 /  60  80  40  60
VRB  71  90  71  92 /  50  80  30  60
LEE  74  87  75  88 /  40  80  40  70
SFB  75  89  75  91 /  40  80  40  70
ORL  75  88  75  90 /  50  80  40  70
FPR  71  90  72  91 /  50  80  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper