727
FXUS62 KMLB 081936
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions expected to worsen again
  going into the weekend. Coastal flooding, life-threatening rip
  currents, and rough surf with minor to moderate beach erosion
  especially near times of high tide are expected.

- Rain chances increase Thursday and Friday. A Marginal Risk for
  excessive rainfall exists along the coast each day where soils
  are saturated from recent rainfall.

- A cold front passes central Florida late week, bringing a more
  fall-like airmass late this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...A band of dry air with PWATs as low as 1"
is sliding across Central Florida, between higher moisture to the
north from an approaching weakening front, and another band of
higher moisture to the south associated with a weak surface trough
extending from the local Atlantic waters towards the Straits of
Florida and Caribbean, both bringing PWATs to around 1.6" across
the far north and south. Other than scattered sprinkles and light
showers supported by low-level moisture from the more muted
onshore flow today, mainly across the southern counties at this
point, relatively quiet conditions are present across East
Central Florida, other than the continued hazardous beach
conditions. Rip Current Statements and Coastal Flood Advisories
remain in effect for our coast, and entering the surf is not
advised. Generally quiet conditions are expected to continue
through the night, then towards morning, rain chances and winds
begin to increase as the front nears.

Thursday-Saturday...Beach and marine conditions deteriorate
again, especially Friday and Saturday. A weakening cool front
approaches Florida from the north, causing an ENE pressure
gradient across the area between the approaching front and a weak
surface trough/broad area low pressure extending from the Florida
east coast into the Caribbean to tighten once again, resuming
brisk onshore flow. Still a little uncertainty how far into
Central Florida, if at all, this front will make it Thursday or
Friday. Then Saturday, a low pressure system is forecast to
develop along the boundary offshore response to a mid-upper level
trough that quickly digs down the southeast and over Florida.
There is also some uncertainty in the exact timing and location of
the low`s development. Given the deep synoptic forcing this low
is expected to remain extra tropical, but that won`t lessen the
impacts to the beaches and local Atlantic waters as the pressure
gradient further tightens and onshore winds further increase the
same time as we see the highest astronomical tides of this set.
Water levels along the coast and Intracoastal waters waterways are
forecast to reach 2-3 ft above normal tides, which is about 0.5-1
ft above the levels we`ve seen the last several days. A Coastal
Flood Advisory remains in effect through Thursday evening, as
water levels are currently forecast to come in near to slightly
above today`s levels, and a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued
for Thursday night through at least Saturday night for the
increasing levels. There is potential for these higher water
levels to arrive as early as Thursday. Conditions at the beaches
will remain dangerous, including numerous life- threatening rip
currents, rough surf, and minor to moderate erosion. Northeasterly
winds will become breezy to windy, especially along the immediate
Volusia coast Friday and Saturday where there is potential for
winds to around 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Along the
Brevard coast and across the inland northern counties, winds could
reach to around 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

The band of dry air across Central Florida is pinched off by
increasing moisture from the north (approaching front) and south
(band of higher moisture associated with the weak surface
trough), which combined with the increasing onshore flow will
return above normal rain chances and potential for heavy rainfall
leading to flooding, especially along the coast due to coastal
convergence Thursday and Friday. Coastal locations that receive
repeated rounds or training of heavy rainfall are likely to
receive 1-2" of rainfall, with locally high amounts over 4"
leading to flooding possible. Areas outside of these
bands/targeted spots will see lower rainfall amounts. Locations
that have received significant rainfall the last couple weeks, and
low- lying coastal/Intracoastal areas, will be especially
sensitive to flooding. Isolated thunderstorms capable of
occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also be
possible, but the primary threat will be heavy rainfall. Once the
low develops it is forecast to quickly depart to the north,
filtering much drier air over Florida, knocking down rain chances
and delivering a Florida version of fall by Saturday.

Sunday-Tuesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...A dry post-frontal
airmass spreads central Florida on Sunday with no mentionable rain
chances and more moderate winds forecast through early next week.
A taste of fall is welcomed with lower humidity and afternoon high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Morning low temperatures range
from the low to mid 60s across the interior and the mid to upper
60s along the coast. While the weather becomes more pleasant, long
period swells and high astronomical tides will cause dangerous
beach and marine conditions including rip currents, rough surf,
coastal flooding, beach erosion, and high seas to continue into
Sunday. Some gradual improvement is expected going into the work
week, but some impacts will be very slow to shake off.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas have finally subsided a bit,
but this will be short-lived as a cold front approaching from the
north Thursday and Friday causes conditions to deteriorate again,
and non-tropical low pressure system developing offshore Saturday
further worsens conditions. East-northeast winds around 15 kts
today increase to 20-25 kts across the Volusia waters, and to
around 20 kts across the Space Coast waters Thursday and Friday. A
push of 20-25 kt northerly winds spread the local waters behind
the front Friday night into Saturday while lower wind speeds 15-20
kts may be maintained along the Treasure Coast. Seas begin
building southward across the waters Thursday night becoming 5-8
ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore on Friday. Seas further peak 8-11
ft offshore Saturday night, gradually subsiding into early next
week. Isolated to scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast
today becoming unsettled with increasing rain chances tonight into
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Widely scattered showers are ongoing this afternoon, especially
south of MLB and around LEE. Have added VCSH for LEE for this
afternoon, and maintained VCSH from VRB southward through this
evening. The showers will dissipate or move out of the area across
the interior after sundown, with dry conditions forecast
overnight. Coastal showers will continue from VRB southward
tonight, so have maintained VCSH across those terminals, with MLB
northward remain dry. Showers increase by midmorning, so have
added VCSH for all terminals starting at 14Z across the coastal
terminals, and 15Z across the interior, with VCTS starting at 17Z
for all sites. NE winds 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT this
afternoon will decrease to 5-10 KT overnight across the interior,
and 8-12 KT with gusts up to 20 KT along the coast. Winds will
increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT by mid morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  83  73  80 /  20  60  60  70
MCO  74  86  73  83 /  20  40  40  50
MLB  76  84  74  83 /  30  60  60  60
VRB  76  85  74  83 /  40  60  60  60
LEE  72  86  71  82 /  10  30  30  40
SFB  73  85  73  82 /  20  40  40  60
ORL  74  86  73  82 /  20  40  40  60
FPR  75  85  74  83 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Saturday
     night for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ552-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Watson