075
FXUS62 KMLB 242325
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
625 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

- A gradual warming trend into the week ahead.

- Dry conditions through at least late week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Current-Monday...A weak sea breeze has developed along the southern
Brevard and Treasure Coasts this afternoon allowing a small field of
cumulus clouds to develop. Otherwise, sunny skies persist.
Temperatures are observed just below normal values in the low to mid
70s. Clear skies and dry conditions will help temperatures to
quickly cool after sunset with overnight lows falling into the upper
40s and low 50s. Models have hinted at the potential for patchy fog
late tonight and into early Monday morning. The greatest confidence
in fog development lies across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee
county where light onshore flow this afternoon has allowed for
modest moisture return. The forecast for tomorrow remains similar to
today, although a tad warmer. Dry conditions continue with
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Weak surface high pressure will
continue across ECFL, ahead of a weak frontal boundary that will
move into north FL late Tues/Wed becoming diffuse. A stronger cold
front is then forecast to push into/through central FL on Fri. This
boundary will only have a thin line of modest moisture associated
with it and for now we keep PoPs below mentionable for its passage,
but will continue to monitor. Post-frontal conditions late Fri into
the weekend, with weak high pressure moving back into the region
with drier/cooler conditions.

A warming trend will continue into mid week with U70s to near 80F
Tues/Wed and L80s on Thanksgiving Day. Fri temperatures forecast in
the L70s north of I-4 with M-U70s southward. L80s possible for the
Treasure Coast as cooler air behind the front will take extra time
penetrating further southward. Mins in the 50s for much of the
interior with Fri morning the warmest (U50s to L60s areawide).
Cooler again by the weekend with morning lows widely ranging the
M40s-M50s. Generally light/variable winds into early Thu, then S/SW
flow returns Thu/Thu night (pre-frontal), with winds veering NW/N
behind the boundary for Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Tonight-Thursday...High pressure will keep mostly favorable boating
conditions through the period. However, hazardous conditions may
develop near inlets during the outgoing tide early this week as an
increasing (ENE/NE) long period swell (12-14 seconds) is forecast.
Seas widely range 1-2 ft early this week, increasing to 3-4 ft
Thursday. Light and variable winds continue through Thursday before
becoming southwest ahead of a cold front. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds will remain
light and variable around 5 knots. There is the potential for some
patchy fog development late tonight into early Monday morning, but
confidence in development near the terminals was not high enough
to include quite yet. Will continue to monitor and amend as
needed. Skies forecast to remain clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Today-Extended...Weak high pressure remains in place across the
region. Sensitive fire conditions continue along and north of the I-
4 corridor Monday due to low RH and dry soil. Otherwise, min RH
values gradually recover into mid week. Winds remain light and
variable through at least Thursday keeping poor to fair afternoon
smoke dispersion. Patchy fog will be possible across the Treasure
Coast and interior counties tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  76  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  51  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  52  76  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  52  77  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  48  77  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  49  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  52  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  49  77  57  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Tollefsen