732
FXUS62 KMLB 091124
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
724 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions expected to worsen again
  going into the weekend. Coastal flooding, life-threatening rip
  currents, and rough surf with minor to moderate beach erosion
  especially near times of high tide are expected.

- Rain chances increase today through Friday. A Marginal Risk for
  excessive rainfall exists along the coast each day where soils
  are saturated from recent rainfall.

- A cold front passes central Florida Friday night, with a more
  fall-like airmass gradually settling into the area late this
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure centered across the Great Lakes region
shifts eastward today, with a weakening cold front moving southward
into north Florida this afternoon. Pressure gradient tightens across
the region today, with a breezy northeast flow developing. Winds
will increase up to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph for much of
the area, but conditions may be a little bit more windy along the
immediate Volusia coast, with sustained speeds up to 20-25 mph
possible late afternoon. The breezy onshore winds combined with an
increase in moisture will lead to an rise in rain chances today.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms will push
onshore and inland through the day, with greatest coverage of
this activity and greatest storm potential focused south of the
Cape where PoPs will increase to 60-70%. Near to north of Orlando,
rain chances will be lower, around 30-50%. Surface winds will
diminish some into tonight, but low level winds above the surface
will maintain an onshore breeze that will continue to transport
rounds of scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms
onshore into tonight, with greatest rain chances up to 60-70%
focused along the coast, decreasing to 30-50% across much of the
interior.

Locally heavy rainfall and mostly minor flooding issues will again
be a concern today into tonight from any persistent or repeated
rounds of heavier showers or storms, mainly along the coast where
a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall exists. Localized totals
of 1-3" will be possible, with some spots up to 4" not out of the
question. Wet antecedent conditions from heavier rainfall over the
past several days will already make coastal areas prone to quick
re-flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas. Any storms will
also be able to produce occasional lightning strikes and gusty
winds up to 40 mph. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today
into tonight, with highs near normal around 83-87 degrees, and
overnight lows remaining mild in the low to mid 70s due to onshore
winds.

The onshore breeze will also lead to worsening surf conditions, with
a high risk of rip currents continuing at area beaches and breaking
waves up to 5-7 feet developing along the Volusia coast tonight. A
High Surf Advisory goes into effect for the coast of Volusia
County starting at 8 PM this evening. Minor coastal flooding will
also continue during the times of high tide with a Coastal Flood
Advisory remaining in effect today through much of tonight.

Friday-Saturday...A digging trough/cut-off low aloft will swing
southeast through Florida into Friday. This will allow an area of
low pressure to develop off the Florida east coast Friday night into
early Saturday, which will drag the cold front southward through the
region. Breezy northeast winds will continue on Friday as will
higher rain chances and the threat for locally heavy rainfall and
mostly minor flooding concerns, especially along the coast. A
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall will persist along the coast
for Friday. PoPs will be around 60-70% across much of the area,
except around 50% west of Orlando. As low takes form, pressure
gradient to the northwest of this system will tighten even
further, and may see northerly winds increase to Wind Advisory
criteria along the immediate coast of Volusia County as wind
speeds around 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph will be possible, mainly
in the afternoon and evening. Either way another breezy day is in
store with north winds up to 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph
possible. Scattered showers and isolated storms will still be
possible across the area on Saturday, with PoPs up to 30-50%,
before drier air continues to filter in behind the front and
exiting low pressure into Saturday night.

Highs will be below normal in the low 80s both Friday and Saturday.
Lows will still be in the low 70s for much of the area Friday night,
but may see some upper 60s filter in northwest of I-4. As drier and
cooler air continue to move into the area Saturday night,
temperatures will fall even lower, with min temps in the mid to
upper 60s across the interior and upper 60s/near 70 degrees along
the coast.

As low pressure develops through the period, the continued breezy to
windy conditions combined with astronomical high tides and
building seas will lead to the potential of worsening coastal
flooding issues during high tide. Water levels along the coast and
Intracoastal waterways are forecast to reach 2-3 ft above normal
tides, which is about 0.5-1 ft above the levels we`ve seen the
last several days. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for
late tonight through Saturday night. The highest of the high tides
will be during the morning hours each day. Dangerous surf
conditions will also continue, with a high risk of rip currents at
area beaches and a High Surf Advisory continuing for the Volusia
Coast.

Sunday-Wednesday...As low pressure lifts NE toward the Mid-
Atlantic coast, drier air will continue to filter into the
region keeping rain chances out of the forecast from late weekend
through the middle of next week. More fall-like temperatures
forecast through at least early next week as values will be near
to below normal. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s, with
lows in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Strong area of high pressure across the Great Lakes region will
shift eastward through late week. This will nudge a cold front
southward into north Florida as a low gradually develops off the
east coast of Florida Friday night into Saturday, pushing the front
southward across the waters during this time.

The pressure gradient will tighten today, with boating conditions
continuing to deteriorate and becoming hazardous across the Volusia
and Brevard County waters. NE winds north of Sebastian Inlet will
increase from 15-20 knots this morning to 20-25 knots this
afternoon, and across the Treasure Coast waters will increase from
10-15 knots to around 15-20 knots this afternoon. A Small Craft
Advisory will go into effect for the Volusia waters starting at
11AM EDT and for the Brevard County waters at 4PM EDT. Winds may
decrease a tad past midnight, but a moderate to fresh onshore
breeze will continue. Seas will respond by building up to 5-7 feet
by late afternoon and 6-9 feet into tonight (highest seas north
of Sebastian Inlet).

Winds will remain NE on Friday and then become northerly on
Saturday as low gradually takes form and front shifts south of the
area. Boating conditions will remain hazardous to potentially
dangerous during this timeframe as winds around 15-25 knots
continue and seas continue to build from 6-9 feet over much of the
waters Friday to 7-10 feet Saturday. More frequent gusts to gale
force will be possible across the Volusia County waters into
Saturday-Saturday evening. The Small Craft Advisory extends
southward into the offshore waters of the Treasure Coast Friday
morning as seas continue to build, and this may need to be
expanded to the nearshore Treasure Coast waters Friday night.

As low lifts northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic late weekend,
northerly winds will begin to diminish and swells will slowly
subside. However, boating conditions look to remain poor to
hazardous from Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Onshore flow with VFR and occasional MVFR forecast thru the
period. VCSH remains at coastal sites this morning as iso.
-SHRA move ashore. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA expands as deeper
 moisture overspreads the area, especially MLB southward. SHRA
 activity, locally heavy at times, will continue beyond 00z as a
 front approaches from the north. CIG/VIS reductions to MVFR
 (briefly IFR) and TEMPO groups are possible. Thru 00z, NE winds
 around 12-16 kt gust 20-25+ kt, perhaps up to 30 kt near DAB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  72  80  70 /  50  60  70  60
MCO  87  73  83  70 /  40  30  60  30
MLB  85  73  81  72 /  60  60  70  50
VRB  85  73  83  72 /  70  60  70  50
LEE  86  72  81  68 /  30  20  50  30
SFB  85  72  81  70 /  40  40  70  40
ORL  86  73  82  70 /  40  40  60  40
FPR  85  73  83  72 /  70  60  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for
     FLZ141.

     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Saturday
     night for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ552-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Schaper