978
FNUS73 KMKX 182234
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Puchyan Fire...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
534 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on October 18.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Mixing heights currently around 2000 ft will rapidly fall to near
500 ft as sunset begins. Southerly winds around 7 mph are expected
throughout the overnight hours tonight, and are not expected to
become calm. RH values are around 25 percent at the previous
observation, but are expected to increase to the upper 30s in the
next hour as temperatures begin to fall. Lows around 39 degrees
are expected.

Winds will shift to southwesterly shortly after sunrise on
Saturday, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph expected by the afternoon
hours. Expecting high temperatures around 72 degrees, with minimum
RH values around 30 percent in the afternoon. With breezy
conditions and mixing heights around 2000 ft, minimum RH values
may fall into the mid-20s.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Temperature.........62 at forecast start...Min 39.
RH..................39 percent at forecast start...Max 85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 7 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise 400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6000 knot-ft/ at forecast start.
                    Min...poor /5000 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........0      2      1      2      2      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............62     54     50     47     45     43
RH..............39     50     54     58     62     70
20 ft wind......S 7    S 6    S 6    S 5    S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.13     10     10     10     8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....500    400    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 13   S 14   S 15   S 15   S 15   SW 14
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10006      5      6      6      6      5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (42600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      3      3      4      8      16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............40     43     57     65     70     71
RH..............79     82     55     41     35     35
20 ft wind......S 5    S 5    SW 6   SW 8   SW 9   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.8      10     14     14     14     16
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    900    1400   2200   2500
Transport wind..S 14   S 15   SW 16  S 15   SW 18  SW 20
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10005      5      13     18     36     42

$$
Forecaster...MH
Requested by...Sarah Gollnick
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2424429.0/MKX
.DELDT 10/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sarah.gollnick@wisconsin.gov,scott.sullivan@wisconsin.gov,jason.hennes@wisconsin.gov