238
FXUS63 KMKX 220920
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures today through the
  weekend

- Rain chances return to the area Sunday night into Monday

- Colder weather is expected to settle into the area the second
  half of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Today through Saturday:

Clouds will hang on today under the influence of broad cyclonic
flow, with some clearing possible tonight as upper ridging
briefly leans into the area. Lingering drizzle early this
morning should wind down by around daybreak per latest model
soundings. Increasing mid-level moisture and warm air advection
later tonight into Saturday will bring a return of mostly cloudy
skies to southern Wisconsin. The lower levels look generally
too dry for precipitation with the forcing tonight into Sat, so
kept the forecast dry for this period. Temps are expected to be
within a couple degrees of normal today and Saturday.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Sunday through Thursday:

Weak upper level riding will build back into the area Sunday
ahead of an approaching trough. Another round of warm air
advection ahead of the trough will likely keep mostly cloudy
skies going through Sunday. Despite the clouds, temps are
expected to sneak to a few degrees above normal, likely pushing
50 in at least the southern forecast area.

The upper trough and associated surface low are expected to move
through Sunday night into Monday, bringing a return of rain
chances to southern Wisconsin. Kept precip chances on the lower
end (20-30%) for now given timing/strength differences with the
low among models. Could see some snowflakes Monday night as a
colder airmass moves in on the backside of the departing low.
The bulk of the precip with this system is currently expected to
be rain though, given the general model consensus is taking the
surface low across the forecast area.

High pressure is expected to return Tuesday, brining dry weather
to the area Tuesday and possibly also Wednesday. Models are in
decent agreement with the broad picture for late week, showing a
shortwave rolling through bringing more precip chances by
Thursday night and then even colder temps for the end of the week
into the weekend.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Clouds will hang on today under the influence of broad cyclonic
flow, with some brief clearing possible tonight as upper
ridging briefly leans into the area. Overall though, MVFR
ceilings are likely to continue much of the time today into
tonight. Will see some drizzle linger early this morning, with
model sounding showing mainly dry weather then the rest of today
through tonight. Breezy northwest winds today will gradually
ease later in the day into tonight as low pressure continues to
pull away from the area.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Breezy north to northwest winds gusting to 30 knots will
continue today between low pressure over the northeast United
States and high pressure over the Northern Plains. A Small Craft
Advisory continues into this evening across the nearshore
waters.

Winds will gradually ease tonight into the weekend as
the high moves into the area from the west. Southeast winds will
eventually pick up a bit by later Sunday as the high heads
eastward in advance of an approaching low. The low will move
through by Monday night, bringing breezy west to northwest winds
behind the low Monday night into Tuesday.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 6 PM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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