901
FXUS63 KMKX 110932
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
432 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures well inland from Lake Michigan are
  expected Wednesday into Friday, with high confidence (greater
  than 90 percent) of lower to middle 70s for highs. Much cooler
  temperatures are anticipated with onshore winds closer to the
  lake.

- Widespread showers (90 percent chance) and scattered
  thunderstorms are then forecast for Friday night, with showers
  lingering into Saturday, as strong low pressure and its
  associated frontal boundaries pass through the area.

- Some stronger storms may occur Friday night, though still
  uncertain with moisture return and timing of any boundaries.
  Will monitor potential as this period draws closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 432 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Today through Wednesday:

A strong cold front will push southeast through the area into
early this morning, exiting to the southeast by 12Z to 14Z.
This should bring a quick wind shift to the north and eventually
northeast behind the front, with cold air advection kicking in.
Some low clouds may accompany the front. Much cooler
temperatures are expected today, with the northeast winds
cooling temperatures into the 30s near Lake Michigan. Highs
should be in the middle to upper 40s well inland.

High pressure passing by to the northeast of the region will
maintain dry conditions today and tonight, with winds becoming
lighter and more easterly later tonight into Wednesday. Some
middle to high clouds may pass through at times. Dry conditions
should linger Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to around
60 well inland, and 40s near Lake Michigan.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 432 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Wednesday night through Monday:

Dry conditions should linger Wednesday night into Thursday, with
light east to southeast winds. Temperatures are expected to
gradually warm up well inland from Lake Michigan, with lower to
middle 60s expected. Onshore winds will keep 40s to lower 50s
closer to the lake on Thursday.

Deterministic models and ensembles remain in good agreement with
cyclogenesis occurring in the Central High Plains Thursday
night, then deepening Friday across Nebraska and Kansas. Gusty
southeast winds are expected to develop across the area during
this period, with warm air advection kicking in and bringing
warm temperatures back into areas well inland from Lake Michigan
for Friday.

Highs Friday should reach into the lower to middle 70s in these
areas, where the NBM has small spreads/high confidence (greater
than 90 percent) in this temperature range. Much cooler
temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s should remain near Lake
Michigan.

The main area of showers and scattered thunderstorms should then
move through the area Friday night, as the main low level
jet/moisture advection pushes through. Kept NBM PoPs for this
period, which remain high (around 90 percent). NBM QPF has
consistently ranged from around 0.40 to 0.90 inches for the 25th
and 75th percentiles across the area, so a good soaking rain
should occur and help wet things down from the dry stretch this
week. The ground should gradually thaw as well with the warmer
temperatures, so at least some of this rain should absorb into
the ground. Any convection could lead to runoff with the
subsoils still frozen.

There is some potential for stronger storms to occur Friday
night, especially inland from Lake Michigan, where most unstable
CAPE values range from 200 to 700 J/kg per NBM LREF and deep
layer bulk shear values are 35 to 40 knots. There is still some
uncertainty with how much moisture will make it into the area.
The timing of the showers and storms Friday night may also limit
instability values. Some kind of trough axis or other boundary
would also help focus any convection, but its too early to tell
if this will happen.

SPC has the southwest half of the area in a 15 percent severe
risk for Day 4/Friday/Friday night. For now, will continue to
monitor this potential, and ramp up messaging if confidence
increases.

A dry slot may move through Saturday, which could lead to a
lull in the precipitation. Showers should linger in northwest
parts of the area Saturday, before pushing southeast Saturday
night, where a little light rain/light snow mix may occur before
ending. Cooler temperatures then return for Sunday into early
next week.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 432 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Light winds will quickly veer north behind a strong cold front
this morning, which should exit to the southeast of the area by
12Z to 14Z. Some ceilings around 2500 feet AGL may occur with
and after the frontal passage this morning. Gusts of 20 to 25
knots may occur for terminals closer to Lake Michigan this
morning.

Winds should gradually weaken later this afternoon and evening,
as high pressure moves through the region. Winds will become
lighter and easterly later tonight into Wednesday. Some middle
to high clouds may move through at times.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 432 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters
until 7 PM CDT this evening for areas north of North Point
Lighthouse, and until 10 PM CDT this evening to the south there,
for gusty north to northeast winds and building waves.

A cold front will sweep from north to south across Lake Michigan
into this morning, exiting to the southeast by later this
morning. Winds will quickly veer to the north and northeast as
the front passes. Winds are expected to remain just below gale
force along the front over the open waters.

Winds then gradually weaken through the rest of today, as high
pressure around 30.0 inches moves across the Western Great Lakes
region. The high will quickly move east of the region tonight,
with winds shifting east to southeast for Wednesday. A Small
Craft Advisory may be needed for building waves on Wednesday,
though it looks borderline at this time.

Winds will weaken further Wednesday night into Thursday, with
high pressure around 30.3 inches well east of the region.

Strong low pressure around 29.0 inches is expected to develop in
the Central Plains Friday, then shift northeast into Minnesota on
Saturday. Expect increasing south to southeast winds across Lake
Michigan Friday into Friday night, with gusty south to southwest
winds on Saturday.

Some gale force gusts may occur Friday night into Saturday
across the open waters, with winds and waves possibly reaching
Small Craft Advisory levels across the nearshore waters Friday
into Saturday night.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 7 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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