Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
214 FXUS63 KMKX 221808 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 108 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well below normal temperatures will continue through Friday, with highs gradually rebounding back to normal by mid-week next week. - Rain chances (20-35%) return on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 108 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Tonight through Friday night: A cool northwest flow will continue across southern Wisconsin through tomorrow, with well below normal temperatures persisting. Mostly cloudy conditions this afternoon should improve a bit this evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating, though some mid and high level clouds will likely move through tonight. Surface high pressure will move overhead tomorrow, with a dry day expected. Looks like a good chance for another round of scattered to broken diurnal cumulus again tomorrow. Temperatures will warm just a couple degrees from today, with not much change in the overall airmass across the region. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 108 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Saturday through Thursday: Surface high pressure will remain in place through the holiday weekend, with the upper level flow gradually becoming more zonal. Dry weather will likely persist Saturday through Monday, with partly cloudy to partly sunny conditions each day. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb through this period, with highs into the mid and upper 60s by Monday. Cooler conditions will persist near Lake Michigan under onshore winds. The next chance for precipitation is currently expected on Tuesday, as a trough slides in from the west. Latest deterministic models vary quite a bit with the strength and placement of the trough and associated surface low, so kept precip chances on the lower end for now (20-35%). The driest deterministic solution for this period is the ECMWF, though the 06Z ECMWF ensemble is still showing a 45-65% chance for measurable precip over a 24 hour period. So, overall confidence is gradually increasing at a return for rain at some point Tuesday into Tuesday night. The overall picture among models gets a bit messy mid-week next week, depending on how quickly low pressure exits to the east and upper level ridging begins to build in from the west. Kept some low precip chances (~20%) for Wed and Thu given the uncertainty of timing and the chance for some lingering precip if the low is slow to depart. Temperatures should continue to gradually warm through mid-week as the upper ridge attempts to build in, which is also supported by long term NBM temp probabilities. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 108 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 BKN ceilings around 4-6 kft will persist this afternoon and likely into at least early evening. Clouds will decrease by later this evening into tonight with the loss of daytime heating, though some mid or high level clouds may hang on overnight. Diurnal VFR cumulus in the 4-6 kft range will be likely again Friday afternoon. Breezy northerly winds through this afternoon will become light and variable this evening and overnight as high pressure builds in. Winds will be lighter out of the northwest tomorrow, becoming northeast near the lake by the afternoon. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 108 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Breezy northerly winds will continue through at least late afternoon between low pressure of 29.7 inches over the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure of 30.2 inches centered over the Northern Plains. A few gusts to 30 knots will be possible across southeast portions of the lake into early this evening. Winds will turn lighter Friday into the weekend as the high moves overhead while strengthening a bit to 30.3 inches. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee