Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
818 FXUS63 KMKX 062044 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms with a cold frontal passage this afternoon becoming more widespread tonight with post frontal rain. - Dry and cooler with a return to seasonal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Tonight through Tuesday night: The cold front is currently located over far se WI with just isolated to scattered showers mainly behind the front. Deep surface based convection is occurring over Lake County, IL and will still be possible over Racine and Kenosha Counties through 6 PM CDT but chances are down to 40%. Farther to the north and west, post frontal showers and isold storms (30-50%) are forecast through sunset. Afterward, a 700 mb shortwave trough will approach from srn MN and nrn IA with 850 mb flow backing ahead of the trough. Well organized and fairly strong 850 mb frontogenesis will develop with 60-80% chances for showers tnt for much of srn WI. There remains very marginal elevated CAPE in the post frontal airmass so will still mention thunder. Temps will fall to 40s along and north of Highway 151 with lower to middle 50s to the south. Clearing skies are then expected Tue AM as dry air and subsidence arrives in the wake of the cold front and shortwave trough. High pressure will move along the US/Canadian border with the high arriving over nrn WI by 12Z Wed. Near normal high temps are forecast for Tue followed by middle to upper 30s inland from the lake for Tue nt. Areas of frost are likely along and north of highway 151 and a Frost Advisory may be needed. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Wednesday through Monday: The GEFS and ECMWF Ens mean show good agreement on upper ridging taking hold as well as sfc high pressure slowly moving across the Great Lakes through Thu. Near normal temps are forecast along with patchy frost over portions of south central WI Wed nt. A weak shortwave trough will then traverse across the nrn Great Lakes late Thu nt and Fri with a weak sfc trough or cold front dissipating across srn WI. Only 10-20 percent chances for rain are forecast at this time. Upper ridging will then return to the Great Lakes for the weekend while upper troughing will prevail from the Pacific NW newd into central Canada. Sly winds and above normal temps will return to srn WI. The trailing and decaying cold front from low pressure over Canada may then reach srn WI on Mon. 20-40 percent chances of showers are forecast at this time. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Cigs of 1000-1900 feet behind a cold front are prevalent over east central and much of south central WI and the low Cigs are expected to move into far se WI late this afternoon and early evening. The low Cigs will then last much of the night for all of srn WI. Scattered showers and storms are expected along and behind the front this afternoon then becoming more widespread tnt. Vsbys of 2-5SM BR will develop within any rain areas. Clearing skies are then forecast from nw to se across srn WI Tue AM. VFR conditions will continue Tue afternoon and night. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 A Canadian cold front will continue to slowly progress southward across the south half of Lake Michigan, reaching the southern tip of the lake by early evening. Modest southwesterly winds will turn northerly behind the cold front passage and last through Tuesday night. The northerly winds will become breezy during this time over the south half of the lake with building waves. High pressure builds to around 30.4 inches into the Upper Midwest Tuesday and settles over the Great Lakes Region through midweek resulting in lighter, varying winds. Increasing southerly winds return for the end of the week as the high pressure gradually slides further east. For the nearshore waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor, waves may build to 4 to 5 feet south of Port Washington late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee