976
FXUS63 KMKX 050238
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
938 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humid conditions are expected again Saturday,
  with heat index values into the middle 90s.

- There is a moderate swim risk Saturday afternoon and evening
  for Sheboygan County. Breaking waves and currents are
  expected.

- Thunderstorm chances increase later Saturday into Saturday
  night, perhaps lingering into Sunday morning. Gusty winds and
  hail are possible late Saturday into Saturday evening, with a
  heavy rainfall potential Saturday into Sunday.

- Not as hot but still humid, with occasional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through the end of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 938 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Quiet weather expected through the remainder of tonight, with
temperatures remaining in the upper 70s and lower 80s through
the next couple hours during the end of the Independence Day
festivities. Lows in the lower 70s are expected late tonight,
with dew points near the temperatures. Generally expecting light
breezes to prevent fog formation, but cannot rule out a few
patches in low-lying spots.

Forecast remains on track for Saturday, with continued hot and
humid conditions through at least early afternoon (later farther
east) ahead of cold frontal passage and thunderstorm
development. There is a moderate swim risk for Sheboygan County
Saturday afternoon for breaking waves and currents. Stay away
from dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls, and river outlets
and always have a floatation device with you in the water.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Tonight through Saturday:

Could see a shower or storm pop this afternoon into early
evening, but most places will be dry through tonight with the
lack of any large scale forcing. Lows will be on the mild side
again tonight given the warm and humid airmass in places, with
temps only dropping to the low 70s most places.

A shortwave and cold front will approach from the west
Saturday. Dry weather will continue through the morning and
likely into at least early afternoon, with current model timing
suggesting the better forcing and associated storms will reach
the forecast area mid-afternoon into the evening. A couple strong
to severe storms will be possible, especially across the
northwest half of the forecast area where instability will be
higher when the forcing arrives. Locally heavy rainfall will be
a concern again with very high precipitable water values in the
2-2.25" range.

Hot and humid conditions are likely Saturday ahead of the
approaching cold front, with approaching or hitting 90 most
places, possibly pushing mid-90s in the southeast. Looks like heat
indices will top out around 95, but could push 100 in a few
spots, depending on how high the dewpoints get. Breezy southwest
winds tomorrow should at least provide a little relief to the
hot conditions, especially for any outdoor holiday activities.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Sunday through Friday:

Shower and storm chances could linger into at least early
Sunday, depending on how fast the system moves through and
sweeps the deeper moisture out of here. Temps will return to
around normal Sunday behind the exiting cold front.

Dry weather is likely Monday, with a quick return of
shower/storm chances Tue-Fri as an active shortwave pattern
sets back up across the area. Near normal temps are likely to
continue through next week.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 938 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions and light southwesterly winds expected through
the remainder of tonight, with increasing southwesterly winds
shortly after sunrise on Saturday. Expect gusts between 20 and
25 kt at all terminals throughout the afternoon hours, while VFR
conditions largely continue.

Isolated to scattered storms will develop mid afternoon
Saturday ahead of a cold front (30 to 50 percent chance),
progressing southeastward and becoming more numerous into the
evening hours (60 to 80 percent chance). Periods of lower
visibilities and ceilings are expected within these storms. A
few storms may become strong to severe during the afternoon and
evening hours. Storms will weaken after sunset, but local
showers and weaker thunderstorms may linger into the late
overnight hours (30 to 40 percent chance).

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure of 30.1 inches over the eastern Great Lakes will
continue to gradually move east tonight, with broad troughing of
29.7 inches persisting over the central and northern Great
Plains. South to southwest winds today will increase Saturday
ahead of a cold front, which will pass through the lake late
Saturday night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tomorrow
afternoon and early evening. Northwest winds behind the front
by late Saturday night will become more northerly Sunday and
Sunday night. Winds will remain from the north on Monday as weak
high pressure noses into the region, before southerly flow
returns on Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Saturday night and early
Sunday with the front.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM
     Saturday to 8 PM Saturday.

&&

$$

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