Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
740 FXUS63 KMKX 200246 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 946 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain returns Sunday afternoon (90%+ potential), with a few thunderstorms Sunday night. - Windy conditions later Sunday and on Monday. - Warmer with additional rain chances Tuesday and Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued 945 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Quiet conditions will continue tonight with high pressure over the region. This will gradually slide east Sunday morning as a low pressure system lifts through the region bringing high chances (90%) for rain with a few storms possible into the evening hours. Kuroski && .SHORT TERM... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Rest of this Afternoon through Monday: Low clouds have cleared out this afternoon, with filtered sunshine across the region. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 50s. Light winds are expected for tonight, with lows falling into the mid to upper 30s to around 40. Low pressure will form tomorrow morning in the Southern Plains, quickly lifting northeastward to near the Quad Cities by tomorrow evening. Rain will develop and lift northward on Sunday afternoon as ascent increases across a strengthening warm front to our south. Additional rain and some thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening and night as the low moves across the region. Small hail will be possible with the storms Sunday evening and night. Storm total rainfall looks to be between about a half and three-quarters of an inch in most spots, with some higher amounts possible west of Madison. Brisk east winds on Sunday will turn westerly late Sunday night and Monday morning as the low begins to lift north of the region. Gusts to around 30-35 MPH are expected. Some showers may linger into Monday morning, but should largely end by afternoon. Highs Monday will be in the mid 50s. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Monday Night through Saturday: A ridge of high pressure briefly moves across the region Monday night and early Tuesday, before another shortwave brings a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday evening. The active pattern continues for the remainder of the week, with additional chances (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Highs during this stretch look to generally be in the 60s, though we may touch 70 on Wednesday depending on the amount of clearing. Lows will be in the 40s. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 945 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 VFR conditions will continue tonight as high pressure remains in the vicinity but as the high slides east Sunday a low pressure system will be lifting through. By early Sunday afternoon expect showers to lift into the region as well as MVFR CIGS and possibly some reduced VSBYS with the rainfall. Some IFR and maybe even LIFR CIGS will be expected with this system into the evening and overnight period. And with any storms in the evening we could expect some greater impacts to VSBYs. Otherwise these conditions will continue into Monday morning before eventually clearing. Winds will be breezy from the east Sunday. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Variable winds are expected overnight tonight as high pressure pushes over Lake Michigan. The high quickly shifts eastward on Sunday as low pressure lifts into the area from the Southern Plains. Expect increasing east to northeasterly winds to develop Sunday as Lake Michigan sits in between the departing high and an approaching low. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for the nearshore waters during this time due to the builds winds and waves. The low will lift across the northern half of the lake on Monday, with winds turning westerly across the lake as it departs. Gusts to around 30 knots are expected, but some gales can not be ruled out, especially over the western portions of the open waters and across the Wisconsin nearshore waters. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee