471
FXUS63 KMKX 172005
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
305 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Swim Risk and Beach Hazards Statement will continue
  into this evening for the Lake Michigan beaches from
  Sheboygan to Kenosha County.

- High pressure will bring pleasant conditions tnt-Fri.

- A weak wave of low pressure and warm front will bring 50-60
  percent chances for showers and storms late Fri nt-Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Tonight and Friday:

High pressure and clearing skies will continue to build into WI
this evening, with the high slow to move away on Fri. Cool low
temps in the lower to middle 50s is forecast away from the Lake
MI shoreline tnt, with high temps in the middle to upper 70s
for Fri.

A Beach Hazard Statement will continue into this evening from
Sheboygan County south to Kenosha County via 3-5 foot waves, but
it could be cancelled early if waves subside sooner.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Friday night through Thursday:

A 700 mb shortwave trough will track from the nrn Great Plains
into the wrn Great Lakes Fri nt-Sat while a sfc trough tracks
from the central Great Plains into srn WI. A 20-25 kt low level
jet will veer ahead of these features bringing warm, moist
advection and elevated CAPE to the region. Showers and storms
are likely for this time period with a cold front to follow Sat
afternoon as the weak low moves east of the area. Some
redevelopment may occur along the cold front over far srn WI Sat
afternoon but chances are greater over nrn IL.

High pressure will then build across the nrn Great Lakes for Sat
nt-Sun nt with only slight chances for showers and storms near
the IL border.

For next week a srn USA upper ridge will become established with
srn WI on the srn periphery of the westerlies. Increasingly warm
and humid conditions are forecast with small chances for showers
and storms each day.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

MVFR Cigs will continue to dissipate from north to south across
srn WI through 00Z Fri. VFR conditions will then prevail tnt-
Fri with sct035-045 cumulus on Fri.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Modest northerly winds will gradually weaken into the evening as
high pressure around 30.1 inches moves from northern Minnesota to
northern Lake Michigan by this evening. The high will then move to
the Mid Atlantic States by Friday night while low pressure around
29.8 inches moves into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Thus
light to modest northeast winds this evening will become light and
variable late tonight into Friday evening. Light to modest
southerly winds will then develop Saturday morning ahead of the
approaching weak low with winds turning northerly again after the
lows passage by Saturday evening. Light to modest northeast winds
will then prevail late Saturday night into Sunday while another
high pressure area around 30.1 inches sets up over Lake Superior.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 1 AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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