798
FXUS63 KMKX 121543
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
943 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy west-northwest winds from 30 to 35 mph are expected
  late this morning through the afternoon.

- Temperatures warm through the week and are trending above
  normal for the end of the week.

- 20 to 40 percent chances for showers early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 945 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Low pressure continues to push out of the Great Lakes region
today with high pressure pushing in overhead by Thursday. Upper
level low will remain largely overhead through the day today but
lack of moisture will help keep skies clear. By Thursday,
ridging will move overhead and with the high will help keep
skies largely clear through most of the day. Breezy will
gradually weaken today as the low pressure pushes out.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 250 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Today through Friday:

Weak cold advection and brisk wly winds are expected today as
low pressure around 995 MB moves from nrn Ontario toward srn
Quebec. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are forecast. Mostly sunny skies
owing to large scale subsidence is forecast along with temps
warming into the lower 50s. Winds will trend lighter tnt as the
pressure gradient weakens and a weak inversion builds. Low temps
should fall below the freezing mark.

A weak sfc ridge will then slowly shift ewd across WI on Thu.
Aloft, warm advection and 500 mb height rises will occur with
some cloud cover for the afternoon and evening but no pcpn at
this time. The upper ridge axis will then arrive late on Fri in
response to a strong upper wave moving from sw Canada to south
central Canada. Ssely sfc winds and continued warm advection
will boost temps to upper 50s to lower 60s well inland from the
lake.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 250 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Friday night through Tuesday:

Strong low pressure tracking east across Canada will drag a cold
front across the region Saturday PM. Most ensemble forecast
members allow the front to arrive late enough for the warming
trend to peak Saturday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 60s
across the region and breezy southwest winds. Winds veer northwest
behind the front and remain breezy into Sunday before a weak
surface ridge allows surface winds to back off Sunday night. The
cold front itself is fairly potent on model charts, with a well
defined wind shift and surface trough, yet the upper level jet
flow over our region is predominantly laminar, with 500mb
vorticity maxima appearing to focus much further north than prior
model runs. As such, precip chances for this weekend`s cold front
have dramatically decreased, we`re only calling for 5-20% rain
chances Saturday PM, highest further north and east in the
forecast zone (towards Sheboygan).

Temperatures descend behind the cold front Sunday, likely reaching
seasonal norms early next week (highs in the 40s, lows in the low
30s to upper 20s). Pretty high confidence in dry weather behind
the cold front Sunday, but predictability drops sharply by Monday
in both deterministic and ensemble modeling systems. Take the
latest 00z GFS and ECMWF for example, the ECMWF prefers a deep low
forming over the Great Plains and tracking northeastward into our
region on Monday, dragging warmer temperatures and rain chances
into our region late Monday into Tuesday, whereas the GFS allows
strong surface high pressure to build in over Saskatchewan Canada
(and eventually the Dakotas / MN) early to mid next week, which
would allow dry weather and seasonal normal temps continue
through said period. The GEFS members are fairly confident in the
GFS solution for the time being. Our forecast grids give 35-45%
rain chances as a nod to the ECMWF solution late Monday into early
Tuesday, with nearly seasonal temperatures early next week as a
nod to the GFS solution.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 945 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions continue with largely clear skies expected to
continue. West to northwest winds will remain breezy through
the day but will gradually weaken and become lighter tonight as
higher pressure pushes in.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 250 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Brisk northwest winds will continue today into this evening as
low pressure around 29.4 inches tracks across Ontario. The low
will weaken tonight with lessening winds over the lake into
Thursday. A surface ridge around 30.1 inches will then move east
across the lake Thursday night with lessening winds becoming
variable. Modest southeast winds will then develop for Friday as
another strong low begins to move east across southern Canada.
Breezy southerly winds will develop Friday night into Saturday as
the Canadian low continues eastward. Its strong cold frontal
passage will then shift winds to brisk northwesterly for
Saturday night into Sunday over the lake. A Small Craft Advisory
will continue into this evening from Sheboygan to Winthrop
Harbor due to brisk wnwly winds.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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