Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
933 FXUS63 KMKX 111612 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow may just clip areas southwest of Madison tonight. Any snow accumulations under a half of an inch expected. - Light snow may occur Friday afternoon and evening, with the passage of an Arctic cold front. - An Arctic airmass is expected this weekend, with wind chills as cold as 15 below to 30 below zero for the overnight and early morning hours. - Next week temps return to near normal with daytime temps around or above freezing. && .UPDATE... Issued 1000 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 No major changes to the prior forecast other than lower clouds holding firm in southwestern WI and not looking to go anywhere through the afternoon. Still expecting light snow to clip southwestern WI this evening as a low tracks from the Lower Missouri River Valley and up the Ohio River Valley into Friday. With most of the upper-level forcing staying out of the area, still expecting to see a dusting to around half of an inch of snow for areas southwest of a line from the WI Dells through Lake Geneva. Looking at upstream obs and radar trends, might see light snow begin later this afternoon, but the better chances remain this evening and generally ending around midnight. Overall, not much in the way of impacts from this activity. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Today and tonight: Stubborn low clouds may hang on across much of southern Wisconsin through early to mid-morning. Models keep trying to show the clear slot expanding farther into the forecast area, but satellite trends don`t reflect this potential through the next couple hours. Will continue to monitor the back edge of the clouds near Eau Claire this morning to see if there is a significant southward push. These clouds have kept temps from falling as much as expected across much of the area early this morning, so will continue to modify short term temps to match the slower exit of the clouds. High temps may have to be updated for today if the clouds hang on through early to mid- morning, as temps are trending towards starting out warmer at daybreak than the current forecast highs. Otherwise, expect quiet weather today under high pressure, with light winds through tonight. It sill looks like there could be a little light snow southwest of Madison this evening into early tonight, though some forecast models keep the snow completely southwest of the state. If the snow does sneak into southwest Wisconsin, only a dusting to a half an inch is expected. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Friday through Wednesday: Another shortwave is expected to move through Friday, with models still suggesting a little light snow possible in the afternoon and evening. Colder temps will move in behind this wave, with highs likely not getting out of the single digits over the weekend. Lows will be below zero at night, with wind chills of 15 to 30 below. Cold weather headlines will be possible both Friday night and Saturday night, with the coldest wind chills expected Saturday night into early Sunday. Another wave may clip the area on Saturday, with more snow chances possible, though latest forecast models largely keep the snow south of the state line. Winds will become southerly Monday into Tuesday on the back side of high pressure and as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. This should result in warming temps early next week, with highs back around normal by Tuesday. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1010 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Southern WI is dissected generally along I-94 corridor between lower MVFR ceilings between 1-2kft to the southwest and scattered high clouds to the northeast. Expecting this pattern to persist through the afternoon with MSN ceilings potentially bouncing in between categories as it sits on the edge of this stratus deck. Areas southwest are also looking to see a few light snow showers this evening as well, but accumulations and rates are looking lighter with only a dusting to around half an inch through the evening and ending by 06z. Otherwise, will see mid to high clouds spread into the northeastern areas through the afternoon, but remain above MVFR levels and remain dry tonight. Winds will remain lighter under 10 knots and vary from the northwest to westerly through the period. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Northwest winds will continue to diminish today as high pressure around 30.1 inches moves in from the northwest. A period of west to northwest gales may return Friday night through Saturday night as a strong Arctic cold front moves through the region. Heavy freezing spray will likely develop during this period as the colder airmass moves in. Strong high pressure around 30.8 inches will then move southeast through the region Sunday and to the south early next week. Gusty winds may return early next week behind the exiting high. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee