787
FXUS63 KMKX 191953
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
253 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures are expected
  into this weekend and early next week.

- Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
  again Sunday and Monday, primarily along and west of the
  Interstate 39/90 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Tonight and Sunday night:

The dry weather continues through the weekend across southern
Wisconsin. A broad and strong high pressure system over the
eastern CONUS today will gradually weaken and slide south
as we head into Monday. As the high pressure moves south and low
pressure centered over northern Minnesota moves northeast the
pressure gradient will weaken resulting in light winds.

Fire weather concerns continue to be at the forefront of the
forecast as conditions remain dry. Across our CWA the main areas
of concern are areas west of Madison with the northwest and
southwest corners having BUI(Build Up Index) indices nearing
100. Which highlights the dry and combustible fuels available.
These values also light up very well with the D2 areas of the
drought monitor across southwestern Wisconsin. Relative humidity
values will be a bit higher Sunday around 30%, but breezy
conditions will remain until that high pressure system weakens
and shifts. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Monday through Saturday:

As the high pressure weakens and shifts south Monday, winds are
expected to relax. The lighter winds will be a bit of relief
with the growing fire weather concerns. The fuels and air will
remain dry with low dewpoints and lack of rain fall. There will
be little in the way of recovery of moisture and dewpoints
overnight as the diurnal mixing from Sunday comes to an end
leading into Monday. This will allow the Relative Humidity
values to fall back into mid to upper 20s across southwestern
Wisconsin.

Heading into Tuesday an upper level trough is expected to swing
through the Great Lakes Region. Not expecting much in the way
of precipitation as this trough swings through. While there will
be lift, we are lacking in moisture across the region. While
cloud cover is expected to increase Tuesday, the dry low and mid
level air will keep us dry. Guidance has increasing confidence
on this as the better chances for POPs has been pulled further
north and south well out of the forecast area.

While this first trough doesn`t bring great chances for
precipitation, the next one directly on the heels of the first
will bring much better chances. This second trough is expected
to dig out of the northwest. As the first trough exits there are
indications that there could be some moisture returns from the
south. Guidance still shows some uncertainty here, but the
15-30% POPs continue late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Behind this system high pressure and dry weather is expected to
return. From midweek into the following weekend, there are
signals for the return of cooler near normal temperatures.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. High
pressure to the east and low pressure to our northwest will keep
conditions a bit breezy this afternoon with gusts to 20 knots
possible. Southwesterly winds will continue through Sunday.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

High pressure over the eastern CONUS will gradually weaken
shifting south Sunday into Monday. Low pressure over
northeastern Minnesota will keep the pressure gradient tighter
over the northern half of the lake and bring a chance for some
showers as well. Breezy south to southwest winds over the lake
are expected through into Monday. The pressure gradient will
slow relax as the low pressure in Minnesota moves northeast and
the high weakens moving south.

By Monday a developing low in the western US will gradually
impinge and weaken the high in the east and pushing the high out
by Tuesday evening with a front expected to slide through as
the low slides northeast through the Hudson Bay area. Better
chance for showers comes Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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