673
FXUS63 KMKX 031503 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1003 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and
  tonight, perhaps lingering into the morning on Independence
  Day. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with any stronger
  storms.

- Very warm and humid conditions are expected for Independence
  Day and Saturday, with heat index values in the middle to
  upper 90s.

- Better chances for thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday
  night, perhaps lingering into Sunday. Gusty winds and hail are
  possible late Saturday into Saturday evening, with locally
  heavy rainfall possible late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1002 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A warm and moist airmass may allow a few showers and storms to
develop this afternoon, most likely along the lake breeze.
Large scale forcing will not be present, so will keep precip
chances on the lower end. Otherwise, the forecast looks on
track through the afternoon.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Today through Independence Day:

Light winds this morning will allow for east to northeast winds
to develop off of Lake Michigan by midday and push westward
this afternoon. This should keep high temperatures in the 70s
toward Sheboygan and in the lower to middle 80s from Kenosha to
Fond du Lac. West of this onshore flow, upper 80s to around 90
degrees are expected for highs, with light south to southwest
winds. Diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by midday and
linger into the afternoon.

Forecast soundings become uncapped by peak heating later this
afternoon, with the warm front still to the west and southwest
of the area. The lake breeze boundary may touch off a few
showers and storms this afternoon into early this evening, so
kept the 20 to 30 percent chances going for this period.

There is enough mean layer CAPE and deep layer bulk shear for
gusty winds and small hail to occur with any stronger storms,
though the lack of good upward vertical motion suggests storms
should generally be widely scattered and short-lived.

The warm front is then expected to gradually push northeast
toward the area this evening and into the area overnight into
early morning on Independence Day, before exiting to the north.
The low level jet is generally to the west and northwest of the
area during this time, so the best upward vertical motion will
be in that area. Still, the front will be there to provide some
upward vertical motion, with CAMs suggesting scattered showers
and storms shifting through the area. So, kept the 20 to 40
percent chances for showers and storms later this evening into
the morning on Independence Day. Morning activities on
Independence Day will need to monitor trends with the showers
and storms.

The airmass should get capped off by midday and into Friday
evening, with increasing south to southwest winds developing and
bringing very warm and humid conditions into the area. Highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with heat index values
in the middle to upper 90s. There is some potential for south
winds to linger at the lakeshore, which may cool things down for
those right along the lake. Those with outdoor activities on
Independence Day should prepare for the very warm and humid
conditions.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Friday night through Wednesday:

A warm and breezy overnight is expected Friday night into
Saturday morning, with lows only dropping into the low to mid
70s. No precipitation is expected.

Increasing southwest winds Saturday will bring another very
warm and humid day, with highs in the upper 80s northwest to the
lower to perhaps middle 90s southeast. Heat index values in the
middle to upper 90s are expected once again.

Precipitation is currently expected to hold off until at least
late morning on Saturday, as a slow moving front and shortwave
move into the region from the central and northern Plains. Slow
forward motion of the front, high PWATs and storm motion
parallel to the boundary will support a threat for heavy rain. A
few of the stronger storms could also produce gusty winds, but
shear vectors parallel to the front will limit overall storm
organization.

Rain and thunderstorms look to continue for much of Saturday
night, before PoPs begin to gradually lower on Sunday as the
front pushes east of the region. There is still a fair amount of
uncertainty with how fast drier air will filter into the area,
so precip chances do remain rather uncertain for Sunday.

A moderately active, zonal pattern looks to persist for much of
next week, suggestive of temperatures generally around
climatological averages. Rain chances will be tied to the
passage of weak shortwaves and the interaction with various
mesoscale features (remnant outflow, lake breeze, etc.), so
predictability at this distance remains low.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1002 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A lake breeze will move in late morning into the afternoon,
with light westerly winds becoming easterly as the lake breeze
progresses inland. A few showers and storms may pop along the
lake breeze given the warm and humid airmass in place.

There will be a better chance for storms later this evening into
tonight as an area of warm air advection moves through the
region. The storms may linger into Friday morning as well. The
storms will be capable of producing some hail and gusty winds
along with locally heavy rainfall.

South to southwest winds on Friday should limit the lake breeze
from pushing very far inland.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

High pressure around 30.0 inches will linger across the Ohio
River Valley today, before moving to the east tonight into
Friday. Light west winds will become north to northeast today
and east to southeast tonight. Winds will then shift south on
Friday, as a warm front moves north through the region.

South to southwest winds will then increase Friday night into
Saturday night, as low pressure around 29.4 inches moves across
northern Ontario into Hudson Bay. The low will pull a cold front
through the region Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest winds
will become north behind this front Sunday and linger Sunday
night.

Gusty southwest winds and building waves Saturday afternoon and
evening may reach Small Craft Advisory levels for the nearshore
waters.

Mainly small chances for thunderstorms are forecast later
tonight into early Friday morning across southern portions of
the lake. More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms
are forecast for later Saturday into Sunday, as the cold front
crosses the lake.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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