413
FXUS63 KMKX 200324
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1024 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall drier and less humid through the rest of the week.

- Fog is expected inland from Lake Michigan tonight. Areas near
  and west of Madison may see some dense fog.

- Chance for a few isolated to scattered sprinkles area-wide
  through Wednesday afternoon.

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from 7am Wednesday to
  4am Thursday for waves of 3 to 6 feet and dangerous currents.
  It is advised to stay away from piers and breakwalls during
  this time, and avoid swimming at Lake Michigan beaches during
  this time period.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1024 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

There are some lingering light rain showers just to the
northwest of the CWA late this evening. These showers are along
a dying outflow and should continue to dissipate, but its
possible that northern Sauk, Columbia, and Marquette Counties
could see some very light rain and drizzle from these dying
showers. As these showers dissipate so to does the associated
cloud cover, but its likely the clouds will move further into
southern Wisconsin before dissipating. These clouds could delay
the potential for fog development for a couple hours yet. Fog is
still expected to develop for inland areas due to the incoming
subsidence, light and variable winds and mostly clear skies
expected. Fog still has the potential to be dense in a few
spots, mostly in low lying area west of Madison.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Areas of stratocu will persist into tonight, generally becoming
a bit more scattered with time. Models seem to suggest a
weakening inverted trough will sink south across the state
tonight, bringing chances for showers. Given the subsidence
visible on water vapor over the state, there is some skepticism
in this. Even so, the potential for isolated to scattered
sprinkles were added to the forecast, mainly during the early
morning hours.

Along with the sprinkle potential, fog is expected inland from
Lake Michigan tonight, owing to subsidence, light winds, and
lingering low level moisture. Fog may grow dense in spots,
especially for areas along and west of the longitude of Madison.

Toward daybreak tomorrow, northeast winds will take hold driving
some potential for sprinkles during the afternoon as a result of
shoreline convergence. Scattered stratocu clouds will continue
to linger, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The northeast winds will be breezy over the lake tomorrow,
causing high swim risk conditions at Milwaukee, Racine, and
Kenosha counties. Waves of 3 to 6 feet are expected along with
dangerous currents. Swimming is not advised between 7am
Wednesday to 4am Thursday while the Beach Hazard Statement is in
effect.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

An upper level ridge will sharpen Thursday, promoting continued
seasonable warmth. High pressure near the surface will continue
to drive northeast flow off of the lake, keeping near surface
dew points relatively low. Winds will come around to southerly
on Friday as the low exits and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Said cold front will move over the area from
northwest to southeast Friday evening, but a lack of convergence
along the front and relatively low moisture/PWATs ahead of the
front will keep shower activity fairly broken. NBM PoPs range
from 15 to 25% chances along the boundary at this time.

Following the frontal passage, cool dry air will be pushed into
the Great Lakes by a large occluded extra-tropical cyclone near
the Hudson Bay. Highs will only top out near 70 toward the end
of the extended period amid continuing dry conditions.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1024 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Scattered mid level clouds around 4 to 10 kft will continue to
gradually move through southern Wisconsin this evening before
scattering out due to subsidence aloft overnight. Low level
clouds around 1-2 kft have developed along the Lake Michigan
Shore. These low level clouds are mostly focused along and south
of Milwaukee county and should move south out of the area over
the next couple hours or so. Its likely that these low level
clouds are latching onto the last of some sfc frictional
convergence with winds coming off the lake. Winds will become
more light and variable and prevent any additional clouds from
developing as we head into the overnight hours. Terminals within
a few miles of the Lake will be those at risk for these lower
clouds.

Lingering low level moisture, light and variable winds and
mostly clear skies will allow for some fog development
overnight, particularly for inland areas. Visibilities are
expected to fall to 1-4 SM for inland terminals. There is a
small chance for some dense fog to develop in river valleys and
other low lying areas west of Madison (MSN). Any fog that
develops should dissipate/burn off after sunrise.

Daytime cumulus clouds return tomorrow and there`s a 10% chance
for some occasionally sprinkles from these clouds. Light north
winds are becoming light and variable this evening. These light
winds will continue overnight before becoming northeasterly
tomorrow. Light northeast winds will continue through the rest
of the period.


Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 220 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Higher pressure will remain over the Great Lakes through
Friday. A breezy period of northerly winds will persist today
through tomorrow as the high pressure moves in behind retreating
low pressure. Light to moderate north winds are then expected
Wednesday night into early Friday, before winds turn southerly
Friday morning head of an approaching cold front.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 AM
     Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Wednesday
     to 4 AM Thursday.

&&

$$

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