179
FXUS63 KMKX 212136
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
336 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Steady light rain will continue away from the lake counties
  into the early evening. Patchy drizzle elsewhere and late tnt.

- The next chances for rain arrives Sunday night and Monday.

- The Wind Advisory has been cancelled. A Gale Warning remains
  in effect for the south half of the lake into the early
  evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 336 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

The filling low over se Lake MI will continue to weaken as it
moves into nrn IN this evening. The wind field has been weaker
than expected so cancelled the Wind Advisory. Persistent light
rain and drizzle will continue over much of srn WI into the
evening. This is due to the lingering deformation band and PVA,
and possibly some minor lake effect rain.

Stratus clouds and modest nwly winds will then prevail on Fri as
another occlusion will be located over the Mid Atlantic States,
while a sfc ridge prevails over the Great Plains. The winds will
weaken Fri nt as the ridge approaches from the west.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 336 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

A weak sfc ridge will slowly move across WI for Sat-Sat nt.
Mid level clouds may be thick enough for mostly cloudy skies but
there is some hope for sunshine in the afternoon.

A sfc trough will then extend from the srn Great Plains into ern
IA by 00Z Mon with a warm front possibly moving into nrn IL. The
trough will pass Sun nt with nwly winds and cold advection
developing, but an upper wave will pass on Mon with 30-40
percent chances of rain.

A sfc ridge will then arrive late on Tue and into early Wed, but
a sfc trough will pass to the south Wed-Thu but may extend far
enough north for lgt rain and snow.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 336 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Light rain and drizzle will linger into the evening over much of
S WI. Cigs will range from 600-2500 feet late this afternoon
through Fri. Areas of MVFR Vsbys will occur with the rain or
drizzle at times. The brisk nwly winds will quickly diminish
this evening but redevelop on Fri.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 336 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Low pressure of 29.6 inches over southeast Lake Michigan will
continue to weaken as it moves into northern Indiana this
evening. Thus the sporadic northerly gales over the south half
will dissipate during the evening hours. Brisk northerly winds
will then redevelop during the overnight and continue into
Friday evening, although gales are not anticipated. A very weak
pressure pattern will then settle over the lake for Saturday
into Sunday morning.


Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876 until 6 PM
     Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ878 until 9 PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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