253
FXUS63 KMKX 031924
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
224 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain is likely later Friday into Friday night, especially
  south and east of Madison.

- Near normal temperatures into this weekend will fall below
  normal early next week.

- Light snow is possible on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

Quiet weather expected tonight as the high pressure overhead
strengthens a bit into the day Friday. Despite plenty of
activity aloft (which will keep higher clouds overhead) the
drier low levels will keep us dry tonight through much of the
day Friday. Late Friday afternoon into the evening we will start
to see the lower levels moisten up with another wave of PVA
aloft pushing in through Friday night. By Friday evening/night
rain will start to push into our southeast primarily associated
with the greatest moisture and the best forcing aloft. Chances
south and east of Madison with range from 65-85%. Further north
and west the forcing drops off a bit and thus there will be
lower overall chances (30-50%) for precip in those areas.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

By daybreak Saturday morning precip should largely have pushed
out of the southeast parts of the CWA as weakening high pressure
nudges in from the west. The upper level trough will finally
start to pull through the region Saturday/Saturday night, though
the upper closed low will remain stagnant over the southwest US
through Saturday but as the low in Canada slides east the trough
will start moving again, pushing east Sunday into Monday. Dry
weather is expected for southern Wisconsin through the weekend.

Into Monday, we will see increased chances for a brief quick
hitting snow event as a weak low develops over the region. This
would be associated with a shortwave aloft and a brief period of
low to midlevel moisture. The uncertainty with this primarily
remains with how much snow we could actually get, though most
models suggest low overall QPF. However, models also signal some
low to midlevel Fgen playing into the forcing mechanisms but any
fgen does appear transitory. With limited timing this appears as
though it would not produce much in the way of accumulations.

Beyond Monday, high pressure will likely push in but there is
some uncertainty aloft on how long quieter weather might last.
Models generally show drier conditions through midweek but the
same system still over northeast Canada will still be trying to
eject shortwaves into the CWA. However, toward next weekend
there is increasing chances that we move into a ridging pattern
over the region which would mean warmer and likely drier
conditions.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High clouds have really pushed in overhead while the low levels
have seen BKN CIGS raise to VFR for at least parts of southern
WI. CIGS should raise even further through the afternoon with
lower CIGS becoming more scattered. However High CIGS will
remain through tonight for much of the area ranging from SCT to
BKN. Winds have and will continue to decrease today as the low
pressure to the northeast slides further northwest with high
pressure building overhead. SCT high CIGS will continue Friday
but into the afternoon BKN midlevel CIGS will push back in ahead
of the system expected to bring some rain Friday night,
particularly across far southern and southeast WI. This may
include some MVFR CIGS Friday night.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Developing high pressure around 30.3 inches begins to build in
from the west today into tonight. Gusty west to southwest winds
have begun to decrease with gales ending across the far northern
parts of the lake. Small Craft Conditions will linger this
afternoon in the nearshore but will lighten into this evening.
Lighter winds are expected Friday under the high, as it
strengthens to 30.4 inches. Breezy winds are expected at times
over the weekend as low pressure and a cold front swing through
the region.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until
     4 PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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