Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
050 FXUS63 KMKX 110957 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 457 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Many rivers around the Milwaukee Metro remain in flood stage or will reach flood stage within the next 24 hours. These rivers are expected to stay in flood stage until mid-week. - Additional chances for thunderstorms will occur this evening into the overnight hours, and then again along a cold front on Tuesday evening. - Remaining humid until a cold front passes Tuesday night. Conditions then become more comfortable Wednesday and Thursday, before humidity returns Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 457 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Today through Tuesday: A weak trough is currently making its way east over southern WI. With weakened winds around the base of the trough and moisture remaining elevated, low stratus and patchy fog have formed over much of the area. Fog and stratus will likely continue until the trough exits east after dawn and daytime mixing mixes out the fog and breaks up the cloud cover. Most of the daytime hours remain dry, but this evening into the overnight hours, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible as an MCV from remnant convection over Kansas is expected to spark renewed thunderstorm development over Iowa. This activity should move from southwest to northeast over our CWA mainly after 7pm and linger into the early morning hours on Tuesday. It should be noted that some CAMs and ensemble guidance keep the bulk of this thunderstorm complex south of the state line, but given HRRR and RRFS solutions favoring a more northward track, have feathered PoPs as far north as Fond du Lac and kept PoPs around 50%. At this time rainfall looks to be progressive but PWATs between 1.8 to 2 inches will support more heavy downpours with this activity. Luckily HREF, EPS, and GEFS guidance suggest totals below an inch, though it should be noted that any convective elements will likely produce more rain locally than an ensemble can depict. Any rain falling on already saturated areas may cause additional flooding, though the progressive nature of tonights rain may limit high end concerns. Rain will linger until around dawn on Tuesday. A cold front is then expected to approach later in the day, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. CMiller && .LONG TERM... (Issued 423 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025) Tuesday night through Sunday: A weak cold front trailing from strong low pressure over Hudson Bay will finally pass Tuesday evening. A few lingering showers or storms are possible. A north to south sfc ridge extending from Canada will then build into WI for Wed and slowly shift ewd for Thu. Seasonal and dry summer conditions are forecast. Another round of strong cyclogenesis is expected from Saskatchewan to Hudson Bay from Thu into Fri nt, while a weaker shortwave trough will track from MN to Lake Superior on Thu. This will bring sly winds and a return of temps well into the 80s for Fri into the weekend. The trailing cold front to the low will become stalled over nrn WI Fri nt-Sat then possibly move through srn WI on Sun. Precipitation chances of 20-30 percent are forecast for the weekend. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 430 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 A weak trough is currently passing over southern WI. With the light winds around the base of the trough, low stratus has formed over the region along wiith areas of fog. This low stratus and fog should gradually rise and mix out after sunrise, eventually giving way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Conditions will remain dry through today, before another round of showers and storms approach southern WI tonight. Winds will remain light and variable this morning, then become light and southwesterly once daytime mixing kicks in after dawn. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 426 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Light to moderate southerly to southwesterly winds will continue early this week. The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Tuesday, with the best chances tonight into Tuesday morning. Low pressure of 29.8 inches and an associated cold front then sweep across the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night bringing northwesterly winds and drier weather for the middle of the week. Patchy dense fog may occur at times due to the abundant moist conditions. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee