Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
554 FXUS63 KMKX 211605 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1005 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather prevails into the weekend, with southwest winds allowing temperatures to climb to or slightly above normal by Sunday. - The warming trend continues into next week, with highs five to ten degrees above normal in many locations Monday through Wednesday. - Rain and snow returns to the forecast moving into next week. The best chances for precipitation are currently expected Monday night into Tuesday, and once again Wednesday through Wednesday evening. && .UPDATE... Issued 1005 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Influence from high pressure working its way across the Midwest continues to bring light winds and cooler temps to the region. Thus no major changes to the previous forecast other than chasing the latest temp trends with warmer temps closer to the lakeshore. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 348 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Today through Saturday: Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: 2 AM surface observations place an area of high pressure over the Kansas City vicinity. Apparent in the pressure and wind fields, a surface ridge extends along an approximate Des Moines-Twin Cities axis to the north of the high. The close proximity of this ridge is maintaining clear skies and light surface winds across southern Wisconsin, which has allowed for efficient radiational cooling & attendant chilly surface temperatures. Expect these trends to continue through the remainder of the overnight hours as surface ridging continues to pull closer, with most locations falling into the single digits by sunrise. The Kansas City high will progress into the Ohio Valley this afternoon, allowing surface winds to turn out of the southwest. Southwest flow will remain entrenched through the duration of the short term period, allowing milder air to return to southern Wisconsin. Currently moving ashore over the British Columbia coast, an upper jet streak will progress into the Northern Plains this evening, ultimately crossing the state on Saturday. Upper divergence & attendant lift affiliated with the jet will result in cloudier conditions Saturday, though the low levels will be too dry to support any precipitation. Quigley && .LONG TERM... Issued 348 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Saturday night through Thursday: Synopsis: Predominantly west-northwest flow will prevail in the mid to upper levels through the duration of the long term period. Embedded within the prevailing flow, a trio of disturbances are progged to track across the western Great Lakes from Sunday night through mid week. Each will bring chances for rain and snow to southern Wisconsin, with the disturbances crossing the region Monday night into Tuesday & Wednesday through Wednesday night forecast to bring the best precipitation chances areawide. West-southwest winds will continue into mid-week, allowing temperatures to climb five to ten degrees above normal in most locations Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will trend back toward normal on Thursday, when a northerly wind shift is forecast. Sunday Night Into Monday: The first of three disturbances will move in from the Northern Plains. Current model guidance suggests that the core of the mid-upper forcing & attendant support for precipitation will pass just north of the area, which leads to the placement of the best overall precipitation probabilities to our north in this forecast. Nevertheless, enough support for mainly light precip is still expected to be in place along/north of I-94, which has motivated ~15-30% precip chances over the northern half of the area. In the event precip occurs in these locations, temperatures will be cold enough to support primarily light snow. Current ensemble probs suggest that any accumulations would be very light (trace or less), though trends will be monitored over the coming forecasts. Monday Night Into Tuesday: The second of three disturbances is progged to move in from the west. Unlike the Sunday night/Monday system, most forecast guidance depicts the center of this disturbance moving directly over southern Wisconsin. Widespread precip probs thus overspread the region during this portion of the period. Several days of southwest surface flow & attendant warm advection should keep temperatures warm enough for all rain in this round of precipitation, though trends will be watched. Wednesday Through Wednesday Night: The last of three disturbances will move into the western Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley. Compared to the first two disturbances, greater forecast uncertainty is evident in this system, with global guidance disagreeing over the location of the best upper forcing & affiliated surface low position. What, if any, influences dry air entrainment will have adds further to uncertainty. At present, it does appear that a rain/snow mix will be possible areawide, with amounts & dominant precip types being heavily impacted by the aforementioned uncertainties. Will provide additional details in later forecasts as model solutions converge. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 1005 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period with high pressure working its way southeastward across the Midwest into the Ohio River Valley. Expect light westerly winds today turning more southwesterly through the afternoon. Will see southwesterly winds pick up into Saturday as the high slides further east. Otherwise, only looking at higher level clouds (>150kft) to build into the region overnight into Saturday. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 348 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Currently positioned over the central Great Plains, 1040 mb high pressure will progress into the Ohio River Valley today, allowing winds to turn southwesterly across the open waters. The high pressure center will continue to advance east into the Appalachian Mountains tonight through Saturday as 998 mb low pressure moves from the Hudson Bay into Quebec, maintaining west-southwest winds over Lake Michigan. Gusts between 25-30 knots are possible this evening into Saturday morning, which will combine with elevated wave heights & lingering cold air to support areas of light to moderate freezing spray over the northern half of the open waters. Southwest winds will continue into the beginning of next week, with 994 mb low pressure forecast to track from Manitoba toward the southern Hudson Bay on Monday. Areas of rain and snow will be possible along & ahead of said area of low pressure Sunday evening into Monday, with the best chances for precipitation over the northern half of Lake Michigan. Southwest winds will become established in nearshore zones today as high pressure moves into the Ohio River Valley. Winds could be breezy this evening & tonight, when a few gusts between 20-25 knots are possible. The breezy southwest winds will be accompanied by increasing wave heights, though the greatest of wave heights are forecast to remain over the open waters of Lake Michigan. Given the wave forecast, and the anticipated brief nature of any 22+ knot gusts, Small Craft Advisories aren`t expected to be needed at this time. Will nevertheless monitor trends through this afternoon and make any forecast adjustments if necessary. Quigley && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee