Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
302 FXUS63 KMKX 230341 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 941 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Largely quiet weather with near normal temperatures through the weekend. Very slight chance for a shower Saturday (~10%). - Rain chances return to the area Sunday night into Monday. Uncertainty with precipitation chances increases mid next week and beyond. - Colder weather is expected to settle into the area following the system Monday/Monday night && .UPDATE... Issued 941 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 A thick blanket of clouds will linger across the region throughout tonight, keeping temperatures in the mid-30s in most areas. In southwestern Wisconsin, northwesterly winds will continue to bring in cooler, drier air through tonight, which will allow temperatures to fall to just below freezing. Otherwise, winds slowly diminish to become light and westerly into Saturday morning. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Tonight through Sunday: A largely quiet period expected through this weekend with large scale ridging dominating the region in the upper levels. At the surface weak high pressure will sit over the region through most of the weekend. The only uncertainty with this period is the possibility for a period of light showers Saturday as a result of a fairly deep moisture plume pushing through that with weak PVA pulling through could allow for some light rain showers. CAMs seem to indicate a least a chance but right now given the uncertainty in the forcing and a little bit of dry air in the lowest levels we will carry just 10% chance from rain showers. Into Sunday we expect quiet conditions as the weak high pressure gradually shifts west with a low pressure system lifting through the Central Plains though no chance for precipitation during the day Sunday especially given the lack of midlevel moisture. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Sunday night through Friday: Within a weak large scale ridge we will see some PVA/shortwave activity pushing in for Sunday night but primarily for Monday as a surface low develops over the Central Plains and lifts northeast into the southern Great Lakes region. While the uncertainty in this development remains relatively high the there appears to be a decent chance for precipitation given the upper level troughing expected to pull through Monday into Monday night. The key in this potential seems to come down to track of the system and correlative moisture. Most of this system would bring rain showers but as the system tails off cooler temperatures pushing in behind should yield the potential for some snow showers. Tuesday through Wednesday will feature weak high pressure overhead with mostly weak zonal flow aloft that typically results in very uncertain short term weather, which will lead us to Thanksgiving Thursday. While models appear quite uncertain there seems to at least be strong potential for some kind of system aloft pushing through. However latest trends have been drier as moisture becomes an issue with this system. This is an area to watch especially given cooler conditions likely leading to snow but the uncertainty remains high. For the end of the week and through the weekend uncertainty balloons as the upper levels become fairly hectic with the systems the models produce but models also produce high pressure of varying degrees over the Central US. The other thing to monitor in this period is the fact that after the system comes through Monday we should expect much cooler conditions with highs only reaching near freezing and lows in the teens as the upper low finally brings us our first dose of true winter cold. And this will be somewhat of a pattern change as the colder temperatures will be expected to stick around into at least early December with no real warmth in sight in the short term. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 941 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Northwesterly winds will continue to diminish tonight, becoming light and westerly into Saturday morning. Ceilings between 1000 and 1900 ft look to remain firmly in place through the overnight hours, rising to VFR into late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon. A few pockets overnight may see IFR conditions briefly, primarily in southwestern Wisconsin. MH && .MARINE... Issued 150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Breezy north to northwest winds gusting to 30 knots will gradually decrease as low pressure over the northeast United States pushes further east and high pressure weakens and moves into the area from the west. Southeast winds will eventually pick up a bit by later Sunday as the high heads eastward in advance of an approaching low to the south. The low will move through by Monday night, bringing breezy west to northwest winds behind the low Monday night into Tuesday as the low deepens over the eastern Great Lakes region with high pressure developing to the west. West high pressure expected through the middle part of the week with much weaker winds overall. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee