848
FXUS63 KMKX 062022
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
322 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief band of light rain and snow will quickly move across
  southern Wisconsin early Monday morning, with additional
  isolated to scattered snow showers afterward. This will most
  be focused over east central WI early Monday morning where
  minor travel impacts are possible.

- Below normal temps are expected this week with highs
  rebounding to near & just above normal by late in the week.

- The next disturbance approaches Wednesday through Thursday,
  bringing additional chances for rain and snow to southern
  Wisconsin. Minor snow accumulation could occur.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Tonight through Monday night:

High pressure will shift south of srn WI this afternoon with wly
winds becoming established, with the exception of the lake
breeze in far ern WI. High temps in the lower to middle 50s away
from the lake looks good for this afternoon.

Otherwise the strong upper wave over wrn Ontario will dig and
slightly amplify as it reaches east central WI by 12Z Mon.
Modest cyclogenesis is expected from nrn WI to Lake Huron during
this time with a strong cold front to shift swd across the
region from 05-10Z. A narrow band of low to mid level saturation
is expected although measurable precipitation will likely stay
confined to east central WI where the upper dynamics are more
focused. Nevertheless, a brief period of lgt rain changing to
lgt snow is possible with 60 percent chances for east central
WI. Very lgt snow accum is possible on grassy surfaces. The
upper wave will then shift ewd across MI for the late morning
and afternoon. Unstable but increasingly dry conditions are
settling over srn WI for the late morning and afternoon with PWs
falling below 0.20 inches. Forecast soundings produce very
marginal CAPE with fairly high cloud bases expected over ern WI
with just partly cloudy skies over south central WI. Isolated to
scattered brief snow showers are forecast for ern WI into the
afternoon with brief and minor visibility restrictions
possible.

The winds will weaken Mon nt as polar high pressure approaches
from the nw. Temps may drop into the upper teens by sunrise Tue.
Polar

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Extended models are focusing on numerous shortwave troughs
within nwly flow aloft affecting the region for Wed-Fri. Low
pressure development is expected from the Mid MO River
Valley across the Ohio Valley but much uncertainty with the
strength of the low and associated lift. Nevertheless, rain and
snow chances of 50-70 percent are forecast and would not be
surprised by some snow accum on grassy surfaces at night.
The final shortwave trough should pass on Fri with upper ridging
to then move into the wrn Great Lakes from the nrn Great Plains.
Sly winds and warm advection will begin along with temps warming
above normal.


Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions this afternoon and evening followed by a strong
cold front moving south across srn WI during the early morning
hours. LLWS is forecast for the late evening into the overnight
via a wly low level jet of 40 kt. A brief period of light rain
and snow is possible especially toward east central WI, along
with a brief period of MVFR Cigs and Vsbys. Isolated to
scattered snow showers are then expected for the remainder of
Monday but is expected to be light. Sct-bkn cloud cover with
bases at 5-7 kft are forecast for the afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Breezy south to southwest winds will develop into this evening as
low pressure over northwest Wisconsin moves and deepens to 29.7
inches over far northern Lake Michigan around midnight. The low
will then reach southern Ontario at 29.6 inches by early Monday
afternoon. A strong cold front will sweep south across Lake
Michigan during the early morning hours. Winds will abruptly shift
northerly and increase to gales. A Gale Warning is in effect for
much of Monday morning into the afternoon. Areas of light to
moderate freezing spray are forecast on Monday over the north half
of the lake. Gusts will taper Monday night as 30.2 inch high
pressure moves into Wisconsin. The high will then shift across
Lake Michigan on Tuesday bringing light and variable winds for the
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect late
tonight and last well into Monday night from Sheboygan to
Winthrop Harbor due to the brisk nly winds and high waves.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868...5 AM Monday to 4 PM Monday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 AM Monday
     to 4 PM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...3 AM Monday to 1 AM
     Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...5 AM Monday to 7 AM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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