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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
384 FXUS63 KMKX 271607 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1007 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog this morning will end from west to east as high clouds move in from the northwest. - Windy conditions are expected Friday, with westerly gusts up to 40 mph possible. - The combination of mild temperatures and rainfall will allow for melting of snow and ice, which could result in ice jams and rises on area rivers through late week. - Confidence is increasing in southwest gales Friday morning then northwesterly gales Friday evening and night in the open waters of Lake Michigan. && .UPDATE... Issued 952 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Forecast details remain on track this morning. Scattered shower activity is still expected this afternoon, mainly over east central and southeast Wisconsin, as lapse rates steepen between daytime heating at the surface and colder temperatures aloft from a passing trough axis. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 411 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Today and Tonight: Light winds and period of clear skies overnight gave southern Wisconsin great conditions for fog development. Patchy to widespread dense fog this morning is gradually eroding as high clouds come in. This layer of fog has been transient throughout the morning as well, which helped western counties improve their visibilities faster than those in the east. Dense fog is growing increasing patchy and unlikely as the morning goes on due to increasing winds. The increased winds have contributed to increased mixing which helps erode the fog even more. All this is to say that those still under a dense fog advisory through 5 AM should see continues rapidly improve over the next hour or so. That being said the sneaky winter hazards are not over just because the fog is gone. The cloud deck that is moving in this morning is very scattered with some breaks. These breaks in the clouds have the potential to cause temperatures to lower to 32 or lower. This means that any moisture on the roadways this morning could lead to some slick spots on untreated surfaces in the form of black ice. This is especially true for locations where the winds are lighter or calm. Breezy conditions with high temperatures in the 40s are expected today. There is a small chance around 15% for some isolated showers today as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Lakes Region. This shortwave will pull east of the state tonight bringing an end to this low end chance for precip. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 411 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Friday through Wednesday: More chances for rain Friday as a strong low pressure system moves in from Saskatchewan into Northern Minnesota eventually making its way to New York. As it moves by to our north, gusty winds are expected across southern Wisconsin. Southwest gusts Friday morning of 30 to 35 mph is possible. Winds will shifting Friday afternoon/evening becoming westerly. Westerly winds are also expected to be gusty with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible. Can`t rule out the potential for westerly gusts up to 40 mph during this time. There will be a chance for some light rain showers Friday as this low passes. Any showers that do develop are expected to be scattered and light as there will be less lift and moisture across southern Wisconsin in comparison to locations further north. Northwest winds are expected to be gusty Saturday into Saturday night but with gusts topping out around 25 mph. So still windy but not nearly as strong as Friday. The prolonged northwest winds and slight CAA will bring a return to near normal temperatures for this time of year with highs upper 20s to mid 30s both Saturday and Sunday. These near normal temperatures will be short lived as another low pressure system advances toward the region for early next week. This low pressure system is expected to develop in the central high plains and eject toward the state Tuesday. This low pressure system will ride the ridge out west before making its way into Wisconsin. Chances for precipitation remain high(60-80%), however there is still uncertainty on precipitation type. The rain/snow line continues to waffle around. The likely reason for this is due to inconsistencies in the strength of the low and its subsequent warm/cold conveyor belts. Current average among guidance has this initially starting out as rain with the warm temperatures Tuesday with a potential transition to more wintry mix Tuesday night into Wednesday. Will have to keep an eye on this system as we head into the weekend. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 956 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Expect a continuing mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings ranging from as low as 1500 feet to as high as 4000 feet, and breaks in the clouds at times, as a weak trough aloft passes east of Wisconsin. This afternoon, scattered rain showers may impact lakeshore terminals. Winds will be northwesterly, with gusts to 25 knots. Gusts will then gradually taper off after sunset. Ceiling heights should rise to high VFR tonight and scatter, with lighter winds coming around to southwesterly with time. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 411 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Patchy fog will be possible across the southern half of the open waters early this morning as the low pressure of 29.7 inches located over northern Indiana will continued eastward into Lake Erie. As this initial low pressure moves out of the region, a second low pressure around 29.7 inches will cross southern Ontario today. Winds will become northwesterly and breezy this afternoon before diminishing tonight. Breezy northwest winds of 20 to 25 kts are expected, thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for late this morning through this evening. Stronger low pressure around 29.3 inches will track from northern Minnesota to northern Lower Michigan on Friday. Gusty southerly winds will develop Friday morning, shifting to become westerly behind a cold front Friday afternoon. This cold front pushes north to south across the lake Friday afternoon into Friday night. A Gale Watch is in effect for the entire lake Friday into Friday night. Small craft conditions will be possible in the nearshore waters during this time. Winds shift to north- northwesterly Friday night, and remain northwesterly but weaken into Saturday. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Thursday. Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee