Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
669 FXUS63 KMKX 250204 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 904 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued waterspout potential over Lake Michigan into Monday. - Cool and breezy through the middle of week, then gradually warmer. && .UPDATE... Issued 904 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The main 500 mb shortwave trough has exited to the east of the area this evening, with the scattered shower activity dissipating. There may be enough stratocumulus clouds lingering within the cyclonic flow aloft upstream to keep skies partly to mostly cloudy overnight into Monday morning. For now, added more clouds until around 09Z Monday, but may need to keep them in the forecast into Monday morning. These clouds may keep lows up a bit from the current forecast of middle to upper 40s away from the lake. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 217 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Rest of this Afternoon through Monday Night: Widely scattered showers have developed over central Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with a shortwave trough digging through cold northwest flow aloft. This activity should be closely tied to daytime heating, so expect a quick drop off in coverage and clearing of clouds as sunset approaches. Clearing skies and persistent cold/dry advection will allow temperatures to quickly fall into the 50s this evening, with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 40s. Another breezy, fall-like day is expected Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Drier mid levels will greatly limit precip chances. With high pressure building in tomorrow night, look for lows to fall into the low to mid 40s. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 217 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Tuesday through Sunday: High pressure will move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, with more quiet weather expected. As the high shifts east on Wednesday, winds will turn back to the south, with a somewhat warmer and more moist airmass building into the region Wednesday night and Thursday, ahead of another cold front. That front should pass through sometime on Thursday with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the Great Lakes for the end of the week and at least first part of next weekend, with generally quiet and pleasant weather expected. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 904 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The scattered shower activity has largely dissipated across the southeast parts of the area this evening. There may be enough stratocumulus clouds lingering within the cyclonic flow aloft upstream to keep scattered to broken clouds around 6000 feet AGL overnight into Monday morning. For now, will add more ceilings until around 09Z Monday, but may need to keep them in the forecast into Monday morning. These may linger through Monday, or more may develop with daytime heating by midday Monday. Ceilings should be around 3500 to 4000 feet AGL. Light northwest winds overnight will become gusty once again on Monday, with gusts up to around 20 knots possible. Light northwest winds are expected again Monday night. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 904 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Low pressure around 29.4 inches will remain over James Bay through Monday, with brisk northwest winds lingering. The potential for waterspouts remains across the lake into Monday. The best potential will be across the northern and eastern portions of the lake, where lake effect showers will be most numerous. Favorable delta T values and convective cloud depth should keep the waterspout potential going during this period. The potential will lower Monday night into Tuesday, as the convective cloud depths decrease. High pressure around 30.2 inches will build into the region on Tuesday, ending the risk for waterspouts and bringing lighter winds. Winds will briefly turn westerly and southwesterly on Wednesday, as the high moves east of the region, before another cold front pushes south across the lake on Thursday. Boxell/Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee