384
FXUS63 KMKX 271607
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1007 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog this morning will end from west to east as
  high clouds move in from the northwest.

- Windy conditions are expected Friday, with westerly gusts up
  to 40 mph possible.

- The combination of mild temperatures and rainfall will allow
  for melting of snow and ice, which could result in ice jams
  and rises on area rivers through late week.

- Confidence is increasing in southwest gales Friday morning
  then northwesterly gales Friday evening and night in the open
  waters of Lake Michigan.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 952 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Forecast details remain on track this morning. Scattered shower
activity is still expected this afternoon, mainly over east
central and southeast Wisconsin, as lapse rates steepen between
daytime heating at the surface and colder temperatures aloft
from a passing trough axis.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 411 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Today and Tonight:

Light winds and period of clear skies overnight gave southern
Wisconsin great conditions for fog development. Patchy to
widespread dense fog this morning is gradually eroding as high
clouds come in. This layer of fog has been transient throughout
the morning as well, which helped western counties improve their
visibilities faster than those in the east. Dense fog is growing
increasing patchy and unlikely as the morning goes on due to
increasing winds. The increased winds have contributed to
increased mixing which helps erode the fog even more. All this
is to say that those still under a dense fog advisory through 5
AM should see continues rapidly improve over the next hour or
so. That being said the sneaky winter hazards are not over just
because the fog is gone. The cloud deck that is moving in this
morning is very scattered with some breaks. These breaks in the
clouds have the potential to cause temperatures to lower to 32
or lower. This means that any moisture on the roadways this
morning could lead to some slick spots on untreated surfaces in
the form of black ice. This is especially true for locations
where the winds are lighter or calm.

Breezy conditions with high temperatures in the 40s are expected
today. There is a small chance around 15% for some isolated
showers today as a shortwave trough moves through the Great
Lakes Region. This shortwave will pull east of the state tonight
bringing an end to this low end chance for precip.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 411 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

More chances for rain Friday as a strong low pressure system
moves in from Saskatchewan into Northern Minnesota eventually
making its way to New York. As it moves by to our north, gusty
winds are expected across southern Wisconsin. Southwest gusts
Friday morning of 30 to 35 mph is possible. Winds will shifting
Friday afternoon/evening becoming westerly. Westerly winds are
also expected to be gusty with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible.
Can`t rule out the potential for westerly gusts up to 40 mph
during this time. There will be a chance for some light rain
showers Friday as this low passes. Any showers that do develop
are expected to be scattered and light as there will be less
lift and moisture across southern Wisconsin in comparison to
locations further north.

Northwest winds are expected to be gusty Saturday into Saturday
night but with gusts topping out around 25 mph. So still windy
but not nearly as strong as Friday. The prolonged northwest
winds and slight CAA will bring a return to near normal
temperatures for this time of year with highs upper 20s to mid
30s both Saturday and Sunday. These near normal temperatures
will be short lived as another low pressure system advances
toward the region for early next week.

This low pressure system is expected to develop in the central
high plains and eject toward the state Tuesday. This low
pressure system will ride the ridge out west before making its
way into Wisconsin. Chances for precipitation remain
high(60-80%), however there is still uncertainty on
precipitation type. The rain/snow line continues to waffle
around. The likely reason for this is due to inconsistencies in
the strength of the low and its subsequent warm/cold conveyor
belts. Current average among guidance has this initially
starting out as rain with the warm temperatures Tuesday with a
potential transition to more wintry mix Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Will have to keep an eye on this system as we head
into the weekend.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 956 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Expect a continuing mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings ranging
from as low as 1500 feet to as high as 4000 feet, and breaks in
the clouds at times, as a weak trough aloft passes east of
Wisconsin. This afternoon, scattered rain showers may impact
lakeshore terminals. Winds will be northwesterly, with gusts to
25 knots. Gusts will then gradually taper off after sunset.
Ceiling heights should rise to high VFR tonight and scatter,
with lighter winds coming around to southwesterly with time.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 411 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Patchy fog will be possible across the southern half of the open
waters early this morning as the low pressure of 29.7 inches
located over northern Indiana will continued eastward into Lake
Erie. As this initial low pressure moves out of the region, a
second low pressure around 29.7 inches will cross southern Ontario
today. Winds will become northwesterly and breezy this afternoon
before diminishing tonight. Breezy northwest winds of 20 to 25
kts are expected, thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued
for late this morning through this evening.

Stronger low pressure around 29.3 inches will track from northern
Minnesota to northern Lower Michigan on Friday. Gusty southerly
winds will develop Friday morning, shifting to become westerly
behind a cold front Friday afternoon. This cold front pushes
north to south across the lake Friday afternoon into Friday night.
A Gale Watch is in effect for the entire lake Friday into Friday
night. Small craft conditions will be possible in the nearshore
waters during this time. Winds shift to north- northwesterly
Friday night, and remain northwesterly but weaken into Saturday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Thursday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Friday to 2 AM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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