741
FXUS63 KMKX 231524 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
924 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temps climb to near/just above normal today, and 5-10
  degrees above normal from Monday through at least mid-week.

- Chances (20 to 35 percent) for precipitation enter the
  forecast Monday night, with even greater chances (40 to 60
  percent) arriving Wednesday. Most, if not all, precip will
  fall as rain.

- The combination of mild temperatures and rainfall will allow
  for melting of snow and ice through the middle of the week,
  which could result in ice jams and rises on area rivers.

- An additional system brings chances (15 to 25 percent) for
  rain and snow Friday night into Saturday, with the best
  precipitation potential northeast of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 924 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

There may be some flurries that occur into this afternoon across
mainly northern portions of the area, as some differential CVA
moves through aloft. However, this will be limited by drier air
in the low levels.

Otherwise, middle level clouds may linger a little longer than
currently forecast, but should still move west to east out of
the area by middle to late afternoon. Highs in the middle to
upper 30s are expected over most of the area, coolest where the
snow pack is greatest.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 356 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Today through Monday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: 3 AM surface observations place an area of
1020 mb high pressure over northern Ontario, with a second area of
1026 mb high pressure entrenched over the middle Mississippi Valley.
Gradient flow between the two features is maintaining light
southwesterly winds across southern Wisconsin at the current hour.
To the northwest of the region, a shortwave is evident in GOES water
vapor imagery over the SD-ND-MN border vicinity. A combination of
low level WAA & mid-level DPVA has provided sufficient lift for
light radar echoes along/ahead of the wave, with a scattering of
stations reporting light precip over the last several hours. The
shortwave will continue to advance southeast today, crossing central
& east-central Wisconsin from late morning through the early
afternoon. With just enough moisture in the low-mid portions of the
column, light flurries will thus be possible over our far northern
counties from late morning into the early afternoon. Neither
accumulations nor impacts are anticipated in any flurry activity.
Currently centered over northern Manitoba, an area of surface low
pressure will progress from the Canadian Prairies into northern
Quebec through the duration of the short term period, helping to
maintain southwest winds locally. The persistent southwest winds
will allow for a steady transport of milder air from the Great
Plains into southern Wisconsin, with the warmest high temperatures
of the period forecast on Monday afternoon.

Today: Light flurries will are possible (~10% precip probabilities
or less) from late morning through early afternoon over far northern
counties. Forecast soundings show just enough moisture both near the
surface & within the DGZ to support this activity, though upward
motion will be both too weak & brief to allow for any accumulations
or impacts. Highs will continue to trend upward relative to previous
days, though lingering snowpack will continue to hold readings back,
particularly over central and eastern portions of the area.

Monday: Anticipate the mildest high temperatures of the short term
period---and perhaps the entirety of the next seven days---as the
warmest 925-850 mb temperatures of the upcoming warm-up settle over
southern Wisconsin. Once more, lingering snowpack will likely hold
temperatures back from what would otherwise be possible, though it
is a near certainty (~95-100% probability) that all locations will
eclipse the 40 degree mark. Mid-upper 40s are possible along/west of
I-39, as well as over southeastern Wisconsin. 50 degree highs can`t
be ruled out to the west of Madison, particularly in the Wisconsin
River Valley where model guidance indicates low to medium (~20-40%)
potential of reaching the 50 degree mark.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 356 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Monday night through Saturday:

Synopsis: Southwest winds will persist across southern Wisconsin
through Wednesday, allowing above normal temperatures to linger
through at least the mid-week period. In addition to the mild air
temperatures, the pattern will turn more active as west-northwest
upper winds allow for a series of disturbances to cross the western
Great Lakes. These disturbances will bring chances for mostly rain
to the area Monday night, with even better potential existing on
Wednesday. The sustained mild air will allow for melting of snow and
ice, which will introduce the possibility of ice jams & attendant
rises on area rivers through the mid to late portions of the
upcoming week. These rises could be exacerbated by rainfall,
particularly during the day on Wednesday. Winds are forecast to
briefly turn northwesterly during the day on Thursday, prior to
pivoting backing out of the southwest on Friday ahead of the next
upper disturbance. Said disturbance will bring chances for rain and
snow to southern Wisconsin Friday night, though the best overall
chances for precipitation are currently expected to remain northeast
of the area.

Monday Night: The first of several disturbances will track across
the region, bringing chances for a brief round of rain to southern
Wisconsin. The progressive nature of the disturbance will limit the
residence time of favorable synoptic forcing, with subsidence &
drier air quickly shutting down precip potential by Tuesday morning.
Ensemble probabilities thus point toward high (~80-100%) potential
of QPF remaining below 0.10" in this system.

Wednesday Through Wednesday Evening: A second disturbance will
progress across southern Wisconsin, bringing even greater chances
for precipitation. Depending on onset times of precip, some light
rain/snow mix is possible prior to sunrise, with a transition to all
rain quickly occurring after daybreak. Thus expect that all QPF will
come from rain in this system. Said QPF is notably higher than the
Monday night system, which is likely due to slower system
progression, as well as partial coupling of forcing from the mid-
level vort max & upper level jet dynamics. Should they materialize,
these factors would allow for an environment characterized by 0.50"+
precipitable waters (1-1.5+ standard deviations greater than late
February climo) to be better utilized for rainfall. Depending on how
snow/ice melt progresses through the early week period, this could
lead to an exacerbation of any localized ice jams & rises on area
rivers. Will thus be monitoring this portion of the period closely
for possible minor river flooding & impacts.

Friday Night Through Saturday: Additional precip is possible ahead
of another disturbance. Deterministic & ensemble guidance points
toward the core of said disturbance passing from the UP into Lower
Michigan, which explains the current placement of highest precip
probs to our northeast. Will monitor for potential changes in system
track over the coming forecasts.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 924 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

There may be some flurries that occur into this afternoon,
mainly in northern portions of the area. Dry air in the low
levels will limit this activity. Middle level clouds may linger
a little longer into this afternoon, before moving west to east
out of the area by later this afternoon. Light south southwest
winds are expected.

South southwest winds will remain light this evening, before
increasing overnight and becoming southwest to west on Monday.
Low level wind shear is expected from around 06Z to 15Z Monday,
with 2000 foot AGL winds southwest between 35 to 45 knots. More
middle level clouds will move in tonight and linger into Monday.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 356 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

1020 mb high pressure is situated over north-central Ontario this
morning, with 994 mb low pressure positioned further west over
Alberta. Both features will progress eastward today, with the
Alberta low deepening through 982 mb as it reaches the Ontario-
Manitoba border this evening. The approach of the surface low will
allow southwest winds to strengthen over the open waters this
afternoon, with widespread gusts between 20-25 knots anticipated by
early evening over the northern half of Lake Michigan. The low will
continue to deepen to near 980 mb tonight as it progresses across
the southern shores of the Hudson Bay, allowing southwest gusts to
increase further across the open waters. Widespread 20-30 knot gusts
are forecast across the entirety of Lake Michigan between midnight &
mid-morning Monday. Higher gusts exceeding 30 knots are possible
over the northern third of the open waters, with a few gale-force
readings possible. Conditions aren`t currently expected to be
widespread enough to warrant Gale Warnings, though trends will be
monitored through this afternoon and evening. Gusts will gradually
taper Monday afternoon and evening as 1010 mb high pressure builds
into the Canadian Great Plains.

Southwest winds will become breezy this evening through Monday
morning in nearshore zones as low pressure migrates across the
southern shores of the Hudson Bay. Widespread gusts between 15-20
knots are forecast between midnight and mid-morning Monday, with
brief periods of gusts between 22-25 knots possible. The greatest
chances for these locally higher gusts will be from North Point
Light north to Sheboygan. Given the relatively brief & isolated
nature of any such gusts, Small Craft Advisories aren`t currently
anticipated. Trends will nevertheless be monitored this afternoon
and evening for any possible changes.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee