796
FXUS63 KMKX 012153
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
353 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow through this evening with accumulations between 0.5
  and 1.5 inches.

- Another light snow event early Wednesday morning with amounts
  of an inch or less.

- Much colder Wednesday night through Thursday night.

- Several chances for light snow late in the week, though with
  low confidence on details.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 353 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tonight:

Snow is spreading into southern Wisconsin this afternoon. This
is due to a mid level shortwave trough making its way across the
region. Once the low levels saturate, visibilities are dropping
down to 1 to 2 miles. This saturation is filling in from west to
east. Despite the healthy layer (up to 5000 ft) of clouds within
the dendritic growth zone, the overall lift (omega) is weak.
Therefore, still expecting snowfall totals just shy of an inch
north of I-94 from Madison to Milwaukee and US-14 west of
Madison, to up to 1.5 to 2 inches near the WI/IL border.

We are seeing an elongated area, or axis, where snow is
beginning earlier than surrounding areas, primarily from Dubuque
to Madison and Oshkosh, and now over to Sheboygan. There is
weak frontogenesis ongoing at the 600mb level and also warm air
advection at 700mb. This led to mid clouds producing snow aloft
to help saturate the lower levels quicker than surrounding
areas. The deeper moisture is translating into southeast WI now,
and it is beginning to snow in Milwaukee.

The steadier snow is expected to exit southeast WI from west to
east from 9 pm to 1 am. However, upstream obs in the Twin Cities
area are showing light snow coincident with the lagging edge of
the mid level shortwave trough. This feature should exit eastern
WI between midnight and 3 am. We will keep an eye on trends this
evening and potentially extend the light snow/flurry chances
into the overnight hours. This would not affect the overall
snowfall totals. Winds will be light throughout this snowfall
event. Lows will be in the lower teens tonight, although single
digits will be possible northwest of Madison if any clearing
occurs.

Tuesday through Wednesday:

The surface high pressure ridge will be passing by to our south
on Tuesday. With a weak low pressure trough crossing the
northern Plains, expect steady southerly winds across southern
WI. We should manage to see breaks in the clouds at times. Highs
are expected to top out in the lower to mid 20s, similar to
today.

Tuesday night, clouds and moisture will return to southern WI
ahead of a strengthening surface trough and a weak shortwave
trough. Look for increasing southerly winds overnight. Lows will
be in the mid to upper teens, but those lows will occur in the
evening and then gradually rise toward morning.

Light snow along the surface trough will likely begin in
central WI prior to daybreak Wednesday and then slide across the
rest of srn WI through midday. This is looking like a half to
one inch light snow event with this clipper. High temperatures
will occur while it is snowing, in the lower 30s.

Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the cold front
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Arctic air will bring low
temperatures down to the single digits below zero for all of
southern WI except the lakeshore counties. While this is much
colder than normal for early December, the lows are not quite in
record territory. Wind chill values early Thu morning will be in
the 17 to 20 below range which is approaching Wind Chill
Advisory levels.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 353 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Thursday through Monday:

High pressure and the arctic air should allow for sunshine on
Thursday and highs around 10 to 15. The next clipper system
should arrive Friday afternoon but this looks like it could just
be flurries.

A weak warm air advection precip feature with a shortwave will
slide across the Midwest on Saturday afternoon or night. This
snow may clip southern WI.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 353 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Visibilities dropped to the 1 to 3 mile range quickly as the
light snow spread in from west to east this afternoon. Ceilings
will also fall quickly to MVFR with pockets of IFR possible
toward southwest WI. The snow will wind down between 03Z and
06Z, although flurries may linger into the overnight hours. Dry
weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

Snow totals of around an inch are possible through the I-94
corridor, with lesser amounts toward the north and totals
pushing 2 inches towards the WI/IL border. The snow will likely
be a drier snow given temps in the low to mid 20s, with snow to
liquid ratios 14-16 to 1. Winds should remain on the light side
through during the snow event. Visibilites will likely improve
for overnight and Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possibly hanging
around much of the day.

DDV/Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 353 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Steady southerly winds will become west to southwest late tonight
and Tuesday as an area of high pressure moves through the Ohio
Valley.

A strong cold front along a low pressure trough will cross Lake
Michigan Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of
this front early Wednesday morning, with gusty northwest winds
behind it Wednesday afternoon and night. Winds are expected to
remain just below gale force, although a few gale force gusts
look possible. Very cold air with this system will result in a
risk for freezing spray Wednesday night and Thursday.

Light winds are expected Thursday with the influence of high
pressure over Illinois and Indiana. Another period of elevated
southwest winds will occur Thursday night into Friday as another
low pressure trough crosses the Upper Great Lakes.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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