Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
234 FXUS63 KMKX 180955 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 455 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures are expected into this weekend and early next week. - Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible today primarily along and west of the Interstate 39/90 corridor. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 440 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Today through Saturday: High pressure will keep conditions clear and dry today. Winds will be southerly and breezy with gusts between 20 and 25 mph as a tight pressure gradient will linger over the region between an approaching cold front and the high pressure to our southeast. Highs will reach the upper 60s to near 70 as warmer 925mb to 850mb temperatures work their way in aloft in combination with full sunshine. Dry conditions will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions over the western half of our CWA. See the fire weather section below for more details. Tonight expect similar overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s beneath clear skies. Saturday, the ridge aloft will lean over east a bit, promoting just a bit more warming. Temperatures will be in the low 70s amid slightly lower winds and continuing clear skies. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 451 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Saturday night through Thursday: High pressure will stay put through this weekend over the Ohio River Valley and Middle Appalachia. This feature, and ridging over the eastern US, will work to keep the polar jet confined to Canada. As result, we`ll remain warm and dry beneath an upper level ridge into early next week, with highs in the 70s expected into Tuesday. Ridging will break down a bit on Tuesday as a weak cut off low begins to lift back into the polar jet over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Right now the best chances for rain appear to be on Wednesday as a strong jet aloft will move overhead ahead of a digging trough, with the NBM painting 25 to 30% PoPs east of Madison. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 420 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected today as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Any remaining wind shear should ease at KMSN as we approach dawn. Winds will be southerly today, with breezes around 20 knots. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 416 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 High pressure will linger over the Ohio River Valley and Middle Appalachia through the weekend and into Monday. Breezy south to southwest winds will continue through the weekend as a weak cold front approaches the upper Great Lakes and weakens on Sunday. Locally, the gusty winds will create small craft advisory conditions north of Port Washington until tonight. The approach of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to the gusty conditions with the strongest gusts over the northern half to northern one third of the lake. Very slight chances for showers will occur over the northern end of Lake Michigan as the front draws close Saturday night into Sunday. CMiller && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued 416 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible today along and west of the Interstate 39/90 corridor. Min RH values are expected to be between 20 to 30 percent amid highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Owing to 20 foot sustained winds below 15 mph, BUI`s below 100, and temps below 75, and the more sporadic meeting of criteria, we have held off with a fire weather SPS for today. Still, some vigilance is required for any burns in affected areas, especially this afternoon when RH values will be the lowest. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 7 PM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee