156
FXUS63 KMKX 031604 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1004 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered flurries are expected this afternoon. Only a
  dusting is expected, and some locations may see no snow at
  all.

- Cold and blustery conditions with falling temperatures this
  afternoon. Wind chills tonight and early Thursday will fall to
  between -15 and -20.

- A cold and active pattern is favored into next week, with a
  few additional opportunities for light snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1004 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Flurries are possible in southeast WI through late morning as
southwest to west winds diminish within the warm sector of the
incoming (weak) system. The surface cold front reached Wisconsin
Dells and Fond du Lac and is almost to Madison. Gusty northwest
winds are expected through the daylight hours, although we are
only talking about 20 to 25 mph. In addition, the cooling
temperatures will allow cloud bases to be within the snow growth
zone this afternoon. Flurries are likely as they are occurring
upstream. Clouds will taper off overnight, as will the winds.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Today through Thursday:

An area of light snow is slowly making its way across central
and southern Wisconsin early this morning, though with little in
the way of meaningful accumulation, as a layer of dry air
around 5kft AGL is preventing much of the precipitation from
making it to the surface. Overall, expect to see patchy snow
showers and areas of flurries through early to mid morning, with
little more than a dusting (at most) of new snow.

This snow is occurring within an area of warm advection ahead of
a cold front. That front will pass through the area later this
morning, with winds turning northwesterly behind the front and
ushering a very cold airmass into the region. High temperatures
today will be reached mid to late morning (mid to upper 20s),
with readings falling through the 20s and into the upper teens
by late afternoon.

High pressure will build into the area from the northwest
tonight. Winds will ease over time as the high approaches, and
these lighter winds along with clearing skies and the widespread
snowpack should result in temperatures dropping significantly
late tonight. Forecast lows are in the mid single digits below
zero, which undercuts guidance by a few degrees. Despite the
relatively light winds, wind chill values will still be between -15
and -20 by early Thursday morning. -20 is the criteria for a
Cold Weather Advisory, but for now it appears that we will
mostly remain just above that level.

High pressure will move across northern Illinois on Thursday. A
mostly sunny day is expected, but highs will only reach the low
teens.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Another short period of southerly flow is expected Thursday
night into early Friday, with an additional cold front passing
through the area Friday and Friday night. This looks to begin a
pretty active stretch of northwest flow across the region, with
shortwaves and associated reinforcing cold fronts passing
through the area every day to every other day. A few of these
shortwaves will bring chances for additional light snow, but
pinpointing those specific time periods is tough at this
distance. That said, extended GEFS and EC ensemble members are
hinting at the Monday-Wednesday timeframe as being most favored
for additional snowfall, but again, with very low confidence
with exact timing and amounts.

For temperatures, other than the potential for a brief warm up
here and there ahead of a front, expect readings to remain below
average into next week.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1004 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Widespread MVFR ceilings are occurring across southern
Wisconsin this morning, both ahead of and behind the cold
front. The only exception is right along the lakeshore in SE WI where
some mixing is helping to lift the cloud bases. Flurries are
causing intermittent visibility reductions to 4 to 5SM at times
in southeast WI. Wind gusts diminished across all of southern WI
and winds are veering west just ahead of this front. The cold
front is currently from Lone Rock to Wisconsin Dells to Fond du
Lac and will makes its way through Kenosha by 1 PM. Expect gusty
northwest winds behind the front during the daylight hours,
along with persistent MVFR ceilings. Flurries are likely this
afternoon, but no accumulation.

Clouds will be quick to clear this evening. Winds will also
diminish for inland areas earlier than the lakeshore, but
expect much lighter winds by morning as surface high pressure
moves overhead. Very cold temperatures are expected early
Thursday morning, along with cold wind chills. Sunshine is
expected most of the day.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A strong cold front will move southeast across Lake Michigan
today. Gusty southwest winds are occuring ahead of the front this
morning, and will become gusty from the northwest this afternoon
and night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore
waters. Over the open waters, winds will remain just below
gales for most the lake, though a brief period of low end gales
is possible late tonight over the far northern part of the lake.
Very cold air with this system will result in periods of
freezing spray Wednesday night and again Thursday night and
Friday.

Lighter winds are expected Thursday, with the influence of strong
high pressure around 30.4 inches over Illinois and Indiana.
Another period of elevated southwest winds will occur Thursday
night into Friday. The potential for these winds to reach gale
force over the northern third of the lake is increasing, and a
Gale Watch has been issued from Thursday evening through early
Friday morning.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM
     Thursday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...9 PM
     Thursday to 6 AM Friday.

&&

$$

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