Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
144 FXUS63 KMKX 021358 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 858 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke will create haze and air quality at unhealthy levels at times again today - More comfortable conditions continue through the weekend with drier air over the region. - Humidity gradually returns early next week, along with shower and thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued 858 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 The patchy fog will continue to diminish in the river valleys and low spots. The diurnal cumulus clouds will be sparse today due to the smoke aloft. Expect the smoke to mix down and begin to reduce surface visibility at times this morning, but most likely by late afternoon. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Today and Tonight: Quiet weather will persist through Sunday under high pressure. Light winds along with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected, with temperatures remaining a just a bit below normal. The latest HRRR runs suggest that elevated smoke will persist today into Sunday, with near surface smoke possibly increasing by this afternoon. The Air Quality Alert remains in effect through noon today. An extension of this may be needed based on the latest model projections of the smoke. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Monday through Friday: High pressure continues to shift eastward becoming situated over the Hudson Bay region for the start of the work week. Will begin to see southerly flow increase and advect warmer temps back into the 80s and moisture back into southern WI Monday through the middle of the week. Will it will take a bit for enough moisture to build PWATs back above 1.5 inches with isolated chances later Monday, but better shower/storm chances return Tuesday with a passing mid-level shortwave trough. Then midweek through the end of next week will see series of mid-level ripples and another shortwave trough passage. Pair with persisting southerly flow along with a building surface low across the Plains with associated frontal boundary stretching into the region, will see daily shower and storm chance into next weekend. Right now the strongest forcing and highest moisture align more toward Thursday with a better potential for stronger storms not out of the question. However, continue to see differences between long-range models, thus uncertainty remains given the run-to-run variability of the timing and forcing of this activity. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming days. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 858 AM AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 High pressure will bring continued quiet weather today and tonight. The localized fog will continue to diminish through late morning. By afternoon, the latest HRRR suggests that there will be an increasing chance for reduced visibilities due to near surface smoke. This smoke may linger into Sunday. Another round of localized fog is expected tonight. Otherwise, mainly high clouds and light winds are expected through tomorrow. DDV/MRC && .MARINE... Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 High pressure around 30.4 inches centered over Wisconsin will slide across Lake Michigan this weekend and become centered over Michigan on Sunday after weakening to around 30.1 inches. Light and variable winds are expected under the high. Look for winds to become east to southeast early next week as low pressure around 29.9 inches slowly approaches from the Northern Plains. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee