Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
367 FXUS63 KMKX 250801 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 301 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today near the IL state line. Better chances (30-50%) late tonight and Saturday. - Hot and very humid Sunday and Monday. - Increasing MCS chances and eventual cold front passage mid week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 301 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Today through Saturday Night: A weak frontal boundary has settled to around the state line early his morning. Patchy ground fog will remain possible through sunrise across southern Wisconsin, but mid and high level clouds streaming north across the area should mitigate the risk for widespread dense fog this morning. Thunderstorm chances today look to be mainly confined to northern Illinois, especially through early afternoon. By late afternoon and this evening, the weak front will begin to return north, ahead of a shortwave approaching from the Missouri Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand northward in response, with scattered activity persisting through the overnight hours and into the mid day hours on Saturday. Weak shear and mediocre mid level lapse rates will greatly limit the severe risk with this activity. PWATs around 2 inches will favor locally heavy rain. Thunderstorm activity should push east of the area by Saturday afternoon as the mid level wave moves into northern Indiana and Michigan. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 301 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Sunday through Thursday: A broad upper ridge will become established across the central and srn USA for Sun-Tue then retrograde into the nrn Rockies while an upper trough digs into se Canada and toward New England. This will keep srn WI on the srn periphery of the westerlies with MCS potential at times. This will end when a slow moving cold front finally shifts south later in the week and high pressure settles over the Upper MS River Valley. Hot and humid conditions with potential heat headlines will be possible Sun-Mon, possibly lingering into Tue, but clouds and convection will be limiting factors. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 301 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Patchy ground fog and areas of low ceilings will be possible through sunrise this morning. Vis and cigs may vary considerably over space and time, with lower flight conditions more favored over open/rural areas. Winds will be light and variable. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are then expected this afternoon, initially near the IL state line. Activity will expand northward later this afternoon and evening, continuing tonight. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 301 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A weak cold front has stalled over the southern quarter of the lake early this morning. Light northeast winds are in place north of the front, with south to southwest winds across the far southern portion of the lake. This front will lift back north as a weak warm front tonight, with winds becoming southerly again across the entire lake by Saturday. Winds will generally remain southerly though mid week next week, with the exception of the far northern portion of the lake, where thunderstorm complexes may occasionally result in periods of northerly winds. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee