Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
161 FXUS63 KMKX 210250 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 850 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stratus clouds and some fog and drizzle continue through tonight. - Temperatures several degrees above normal this weekend into early next week. - 70-80 percent chance of rain Monday night lingering into Tuesday. Then polar air to gradually arrive by Thanksgiving Day. && .UPDATE... Issued 852 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Forecast is largely on track this evening. 8 PM surface observations place a weak cold front along an approximate Rhinelander - Eau Claire - Twin Cities axis. The affiliated wind shift across the boundary becomes progressively weaker with southwest extent, which will translate to a gradual frontal progression across southern Wisconsin tonight. Given slow frontal progression, have thus nudged temperatures & dew points up slightly through the overnight period. With the post-frontal push of drier air lagging slightly behind the slow-moving cold front, have also maintained mentions of fog and drizzle across most locations through the predawn hours. Don`t currently see any robust signals for dense fog in model guidance, but will nevertheless be monitoring trends through tonight. The front should clear the area following daybreak Friday, resulting in clearing skies during the second half of the morning hours. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 259 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Tonight through Saturday morning: Swly winds and weak warm advection will likely maintain the stratus clouds and some fog and drizzle this afternoon into tonight. This is occurring well south of cyclogenesis from nrn Ontario into Hudson Bay with its weak, trailing cold front to gradually move across srn WI tnt. Fairly significant subsidence and drying will then take hold toward Fri AM with PWATs dropping to 0.20 inches. Thus expect to lose the stratus sometime during the morning hours. A separate shortwave trough in the srn USA jet stream will then track from the central Great Plains across the Ohio Valley for Fri-Sat. The QG dynamics and overall lift will remain to the south, but broken to overcast high cloud cover could occur over far srn WI on Fri. Otherwise a weak sfc ridge will prevail over srn WI with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies north of the high cloud cover into Sat AM. Temps will remain several degrees above normal. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 259 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Saturday afternoon through Thanksgiving Day: For Saturday afternoon and Sunday a Canadian shortwave trough in nwly flow aloft will track from the nrn Great Lakes to the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a trough/cold front will approach Sat afternoon with swly winds and warm advection ensuing. A band of cloud cover will occur with the QG lift but no precipitation is expected at this time. The weak cold front will then pass late Sat nt. High pressure will then follow for Sun afternoon and night. Relatively mild temps will continue for the weekend. Clouds will increase Monday with rain becoming widespread Mon nt as a shortwave trough tracks from the central or srn high plains toward IL and srn WI. This shortwave trough will shear out as it approaches due to a more dominant upper wave approaching the Upper MS River Valley in the nrn jet stream. Nevertheless, warm, moist advection and PVA will bring rain to the region. A sfc low associated with the dominant upper wave will then track across nrn WI or just north of Lake Superior on Tue with its polar cold front to arrive over srn WI Tue afternoon. The cold advection will initially be gradual but increase into Wed and Thanksgiving Day as the low moves into Quebec. Temps will fall below normal by Thanksgiving Day. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 852 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Mostly MVFR flight categories prevail this evening as a cold front slowly approaches the region from western Wisconsin. Pockets of IFR CIGs and VIS readings remain over southeastern and south-central Wisconsin. Will be accounting for latest obs trends in the coming 03Z update. The aforementioned front will gradually work through the area through daybreak Friday, resulting in a weak northwest wind shift. Drier air will slowly move into the region behind the frontal boundary, resulting in the eventual return of VFR flight categories Friday morning. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 259 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A weak cold front over the Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon will slowly move across Lake Michigan tonight. Modest southwest winds will shift northwesterly and continue through Friday. Light to modest north winds Friday night will become light and variable Saturday morning when high pressure moves across the region. Winds will become southwesterly again Saturday afternoon and evening, then westerly late Saturday night and Sunday with the passage of another weak Canadian cold front. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee