014
FXUS63 KMKX 081015
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
415 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of rain and snow this afternoon will transition to
  mainly snow by this evening. The rain/snow mix will hold on
  the longest in the southeast near the lake. Snow
  accumulations of less than an inch, mainly on grassy and
  elevated surfaces.

- First winter-like air of the season arrives late this weekend
  into early next week, with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
  below normal Sunday and Monday with wind chills in the teens
  and 20s.

- Temperatures return to near normal mid-week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 415 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Today through Sunday night:

The strong shortwave trough moving into the wrn Dakotas early
this morning will catch and merge with a shortwave over NE and
reach ne MO and se IA by 00Z Sun. A weak sfc low will move
across nrn MO this afternoon then move along the Ohio River
Valley through tnt, while the aforementioned upper wave moves
along the northern portion of the Ohio River Valley. Thus the
best PVA, Fgen, and WAA at the jet level sets up across nrn IL.
The ensemble mean QPF of the Canadian, ECMWF, and GEFS keeps the
axis over nrn IL with heavier amounts along the lake. Light
rain will first develop over sw WI this afternoon and transition
to light snow, while the light rain and snow will spread across
much of srn WI by 00Z Sun, but there is some doubt on precipitation
even occurring toward central WI. Any snow accums will remain
under an inch and mostly after dark for srn WI. The rain may not
change to snow within several miles of Lake MI until late
evening from Milwaukee south to Kenosha.

A rather large nrn stream upper trough will then dig swd from Canada
into WI for Sun and Sun nt. Very steep lapse rates due to -24C
500 mb temps will support scattered snow showers later Sun afternoon
and evening in addition to the potential for a lake effect snow
band to move onshore. High temps only in the lower to middle
30s on Sunday with wind chill temps climbing into the lower 20s.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 415 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Monday through Friday:

Ensembles continue to suggest cold temperatures below seasonal
normal values Sunday night into Tuesday, with highs only in the
middle to upper 30s Monday. Lows Sunday night should be in the
upper teens to lower 20s, with lower to middle 20s Monday night.
Wind chills should be in the teens Sunday night and Monday night
with 20s Monday.

500 mb cluster analysis suggests the deep and anomalously low
500 mb height trough should gradually push east of the region
by later Tuesday into Wednesday. General northwest flow with the
trough well east and a ridge developing to the west may result
over the region later in the week. Warm air advection may occur
at times Tuesday into the rest of the week, which should allow
for temperatures to moderate closer to seasonal normal values.
Gusty winds may continue to occur, with the relatively tight
pressure gradients over the region during the week.



&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 415 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Areas of MVFR Cigs continuing this morning especially over se
WI. The MVFR Cigs will then expand into much of south central WI
for the late afternoon and evening as rain and snow develops.
Areas of Cigs below 1 kft will be possible over far srn WI.
Vsbys within the light rain and snow will range from 1-3SM for
the afternoon and evening. Decreasing clouds are then expected
from west to east across srn WI late tnt with VFR conditions
returning, but with brisk north winds on Sunday.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 415 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Light to modest north to northeast winds today into the evening.
Low pressure around 29.7 inches will then move quickly from the
Central Great Plains this morning to the Ohio River Valley
tonight. North to northeast winds will pick up late this evening
as the low approaches, becoming north to northwest later tonight
into Sunday behind the low. Gusts Sunday and Sunday night may
reach gale force, and a Gale Watch has been issued for the
southern half of the lake. Heavy lake effect snow showers are
expected for Sunday night into Monday. Winds will vary between
northwest and southwest the first half of next week, while
remaining gusty through this period. Winds may approach or hit
gale force at times again Tuesday through Wednesday. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor
for late tonight through Monday due to brisk north winds and
high waves.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 AM
     Sunday to 6 PM Monday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Sunday to 6 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee