Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231606
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1006 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Largely quiet weather with near normal temperatures through
  the weekend

- Rain chances return to the area Sunday night into Monday.
  Uncertainty with precipitation chances increases mid next week
  and beyond.

- Colder weather is expected to settle into the area following
  the system Monday/Monday night

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1000 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

There have been some areas of light returns on radar this
morning over parts of Wisconsin. This is in association with
some weak warm advection on the leading edge of ridging to our
west. Most of this activity is not reaching the ground as
upstream obs have failed to produce ground reports of
precipitation and CAM soundings show a pocket of dry air
between 925 and 700mb. Light returns should continue to be seen
on radar into the afternoon as the mid to upper lvl WAA leans
over eastward into Wisconsin, but little, if any, of this
activity should reach the ground, as the soundings don`t show
much moistening of the dry layer through the afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 402 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Today through Sunday:

Quiet weather will continue today through tonight as high
pressure moves through the area. Mostly cloudy skies are likely
to continue, though high temps will still be near normal today.
The clouds will keeps temps a few degrees above normal again
tonight.

Low pressure will approach Sunday, moving through far southern
Wisconsin or just to the south of the state Sunday night. Kept
precip chances on the lower end for now given weak lift and
limited moisture. Looks mainly like sprinkles or drizzle would
be the best chance for precip at this time.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 402 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Sunday night through Friday:

Precip chances are little higher on Monday (20-40%) as the main
trough and cold front swing through. The colder air should
arrive largely after the deeper moisture exits, so precip should
be mainly in the form of rain.

Below normal temps will settle into the area for mid-week. High
pressure is expected to bring dry weather Tuesday, with a
shortwave possibly bringing light snow chances later Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

Another cold front is expected to move through by later in the
day Thursday, bringing even colder conditions to southern
Wisconsin Friday into the weekend.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1005 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings along with light west winds
should persist into early this evening. Light returns will be
visibile on radar today, but little if any activity should reach
the ground, owing to a deep dry pocket above the low cloud deck.
Overnight, ceilings may decrease to IFR in spots as low level
moisture gets trapped beneath a subsidence inversion amid light
and variable winds.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 402 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

High pressure will move through the area today into tonight,
bringing lighter winds to Lake Michigan. Southeast winds will
then pick up on Sunday ahead of an approaching low, with breezy
northwest winds then expected later Monday into Tuesday behind
the low and an associated cold front. A Small Craft Advisory may
be needed for this period. Lighter winds are expected to return
to the area Wednesday under weak high pressure.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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