812
FXUS63 KMKX 031526
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1026 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Gale Warning is in place across northern Lake Michigan into
  early this afternoon.

- Rain is likely later Friday into Friday night, especially for
  southeast WI.

- Near normal temperatures into this weekend will fall below
  normal early next week.

- Light snow is possible on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1015 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Far southern and southeast WI have seen gradual dissipation of
lower level clouds with higher clouds pushing in. Given the
dissipation of these clouds temperatures should raise a bit more
today than some of the shorter term models might suggest but
further north where lower clouds will stick around will likely
stay cooler. No major updates to the forecast overall as we
expect to remain dry today into tomorrow.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Today through Friday:

Clouds will continue to move in from the northwest this morning
as a trough swings through the area. Breezy westerly winds are
expected into at least early afternoon behind the strong
departing surface low over Lake Superior and a high approaching
from the west. Some sunshine should poke through the clouds at
times, so still expecting high temps near normal into the low
50s most places.

Clouds may decrease for a time tonight before increasing again
later tonight into Friday as another low pressure system
approaches the area. This low is expected to slide by to the
south later Friday through Friday night. Model ensembles
continue to show a high (70-90%) chance of measurable precip
across the forecast area as the surface low and upper trough
move through, so kept higher precip chances going. Looks like
all rain per latest model runs. Near normal temps are expected
again Friday, except for cooler conditions near Lake Michigan
under onshore winds.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Saturday through Wednesday:

Dry weather is expected through the weekend, with surface high
pressure in control much of the time. A cold front is expected
to push through later Saturday into Saturday night, with near
normal highs Saturday falling to a bit below normal Sunday.

Models continue to suggest a shortwave will swing through on
Monday, with confidence increasing in a shot of colder air and
a round of light snow. Increased precip chances to up to 50%
for now, but will need to go higher if models continue to show
this vigorous wave dropping through the area. Colder conditions
are expected to continue through at least Tuesday, with some
recovery likely on Wednesday.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1025 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MVFR CIGS will stick around in the north at least into the
afternoon but will dissipate a bit more further south likely
becoming VFR by the afternoon across far southern and
southeastern WI. Other than the lower cigs the only other main
aviation concern would be winds which continue to gust up toward
35 mph across much of southern WI. Winds will gradually decrease
into the afternoon as the high pressure moves overhead.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Low pressure over Lake Superior will pull away to the northeast
today, while high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Gusty west to southwest winds are expected today as a result,
especially this morning into early afternoon when a Gale Warning
is in effect across northern portions of the lake into early
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the
nearshore waters into this afternoon. Lighter winds are
expected Friday under the high, as it strengthens a bit. Breezy
winds are expected at times over the weekend as low pressure and
a cold front swing through the region.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 until
     2 PM Thursday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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