837
FXUS63 KMKX 040157
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
857 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for areas
  southwest of Milwaukee until 11 PM.

- There is a High Swim Risk today from Sheboygan County south
  to Racine County due to dangerous longshore and structural
  water currents.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  tonight. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds through
  this evening. Urban and small stream flooding will be possible
  later today into tonight due to repeated rounds of storms.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to move through at times
  through Wednesday, with an Air Quality Alert in effect until
  noon Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 855 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Wisconsin
this evening ahead of a cold front. The majority of activity has
remained sub-severe, though brief pockets of strong wind gusts
between 40-50+ MPH have been observed both in radar and surface
observations. Thus can`t rule out an isolated strong to severe
storm with the ongoing activity, particularly over inland areas
of southeastern Wisconsin. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains
in effect for areas south and west of Milwaukee until 11 PM.
Have multiple ways to receive warning information through late
evening. Additional rain will continue overnight, with severe
weather not expected. Will continue to monitor for locally heavy
downpours & urban/small stream flooding given high precipitable
waters lingering across the region.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Tonight through Wednesday:

The first round of storms on the leading edge of the deeper
moisture has weekend and pushed east of the area. A break in
the widespread precip has allowed temperatures to begin to
recover across southwest and south-central Wisconsin. Short term
model guidance shows moderate recovery of instability as a
result, with a chance for another round of storms as the next
push of forcing associated with a cold front moves in from the
west. The main threats with these storms later this afternoon
into the evening hours will be strong winds along with locally
heavy rainfall. Given precipitable water values pushing 2 inches
and the fact that the front will be moving slowly, repeated
rounds of showers and storms may lead to some higher rainfall
totals.

Thunder chances will wind down by midnight or so, with lingering
light to moderate rains showers overnight into early Wednesday
as the cold front gradually moves through. Clearing skies
expected northwest to southeast during the day tomorrow, with
some afternoon cumulus possible within the areas of clearing.
Warmest temps tomorrow will be in the northwest where a longer
period of sunshine is expected, with cooler conditions towards
the southeast. Northeast winds near the lake will keep it even
cooler in the far east.

The high swim risk continues into this evening from Racine
County northward. Life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water, and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

Dry weather is expected on Thursday under high pressure.
Moisture will be on the increase though, likely allowing for a
fair amount of clouds by the afternoon hours. High temps will
be near normal, aside from a few degrees below normal near the
lake under onshore winds.

A shortwave is expected to move through late week, with
shower/storm chances returning Friday into Friday night. Models
currently show high pressure briefly moving through Saturday and
bringing quiet weather to the area, with another shortwave
bringing shower/storm chances Saturday night into Sunday. Yet
another wave is expected to move through on Monday per latest
guidance, with more shower and storm chances for southern
Wisconsin. High pressure will likely then bring a return of dry
conditions on Tuesday. Temps look to be with a few degrees of
normal through this extended period.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 855 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A line of +SHRA & embedded +TSRA continues to progress east across
the region this evening, bringing reduced VIS readings &
occasionally gusty winds to southern Wisconsin terminals. Have timed
the line of precip out based on radar trends, and will continue to
make refinements as conditions warrant. A brief lull in precip is
possible behind the aforementioned line of +SHRA/+TSRA, with -SHRA
gradually overspreading all fields through the remainder of the
overnight period. The steady -SHRA will gradually reduce VIS & CIG
readings, with IFR anticipated at all aerodromes by the predawn
hours Wednesday. Can`t rule out brief periods of LIFR, though
confidence was too low to justify any mentions in the 00 & 03Z
updates. Will monitor trends through tonight and make adjustments if
needed. Precip will gradually taper from west to east Wednesday
morning, allowing flight categories to improve from late morning
into the afternoon. Could see continued impacts to VIS readings
Wednesday afternoon due to wildfire smoke, with potential being
accounted for in the 00 and 06Z updates.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Rounds of showers and storms are expected this afternoon into
Wednesday morning, as low pressure of 29.6 inches lifts from
central Wisconsin into southeast Canada, dragging a cold front
through the area. Gusty south to southwest winds ahead of the
front will persist into the evening, with wind shifting to the
Northwest tonight early Wednesday as the front moves through. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters
into this evening. Winds will be lighter Wednesday and Thursday
as high pressure of 30.1 inches builds into the area.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 10 PM Tuesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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