Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
467 FXUS63 KMKX 231606 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Largely quiet weather with near normal temperatures through the weekend - Rain chances return to the area Sunday night into Monday. Uncertainty with precipitation chances increases mid next week and beyond. - Colder weather is expected to settle into the area following the system Monday/Monday night && .UPDATE... Issued 1000 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 There have been some areas of light returns on radar this morning over parts of Wisconsin. This is in association with some weak warm advection on the leading edge of ridging to our west. Most of this activity is not reaching the ground as upstream obs have failed to produce ground reports of precipitation and CAM soundings show a pocket of dry air between 925 and 700mb. Light returns should continue to be seen on radar into the afternoon as the mid to upper lvl WAA leans over eastward into Wisconsin, but little, if any, of this activity should reach the ground, as the soundings don`t show much moistening of the dry layer through the afternoon. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 402 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Today through Sunday: Quiet weather will continue today through tonight as high pressure moves through the area. Mostly cloudy skies are likely to continue, though high temps will still be near normal today. The clouds will keeps temps a few degrees above normal again tonight. Low pressure will approach Sunday, moving through far southern Wisconsin or just to the south of the state Sunday night. Kept precip chances on the lower end for now given weak lift and limited moisture. Looks mainly like sprinkles or drizzle would be the best chance for precip at this time. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 402 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Sunday night through Friday: Precip chances are little higher on Monday (20-40%) as the main trough and cold front swing through. The colder air should arrive largely after the deeper moisture exits, so precip should be mainly in the form of rain. Below normal temps will settle into the area for mid-week. High pressure is expected to bring dry weather Tuesday, with a shortwave possibly bringing light snow chances later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Another cold front is expected to move through by later in the day Thursday, bringing even colder conditions to southern Wisconsin Friday into the weekend. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1005 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings along with light west winds should persist into early this evening. Light returns will be visibile on radar today, but little if any activity should reach the ground, owing to a deep dry pocket above the low cloud deck. Overnight, ceilings may decrease to IFR in spots as low level moisture gets trapped beneath a subsidence inversion amid light and variable winds. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 402 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 High pressure will move through the area today into tonight, bringing lighter winds to Lake Michigan. Southeast winds will then pick up on Sunday ahead of an approaching low, with breezy northwest winds then expected later Monday into Tuesday behind the low and an associated cold front. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for this period. Lighter winds are expected to return to the area Wednesday under weak high pressure. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee