961
FXUS63 KMKX 221956
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
156 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Largely quiet weather with near normal temperatures through
  the weekend. Very slight rain chance Saturday (~10%).

- Rain chances return to the area Sunday night into Monday.
  Uncertainty with precipitation chances increases mid next week
  and beyond.

- Colder weather is expected to settle into the area following
  the system Monday/Monday night

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Tonight through Sunday:

A largely quiet period expected through this weekend with large
scale ridging dominating the region in the upper levels. At the
surface weak high pressure will sit over the region through most
of the weekend. The only uncertainty with this period is the
possibility for a period of light showers Saturday as a result
of a fairly deep moisture plume pushing through that with weak
PVA pulling through could allow for some light rain showers.
CAMs seem to indicate a least a chance but right now given the
uncertainty in the forcing and a little bit of dry air in the
lowest levels we will carry just 10% chance from rain showers.

Into Sunday we expect quiet conditions as the weak high pressure
gradually shifts west with a low pressure system lifting
through the Central Plains though no chance for precipitation
during the day Sunday especially given the lack of midlevel
moisture.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Sunday night through Friday:

Within a weak large scale ridge we will see some PVA/shortwave
activity pushing in for Sunday night but primarily for Monday as
a surface low develops over the Central Plains and lifts
northeast into the southern Great Lakes region. While the
uncertainty in this development remains relatively high the
there appears to be a decent chance for precipitation given the
upper level troughing expected to pull through Monday into
Monday night. The key in this potential seems to come down to
track of the system and correlative moisture. Most of this
system would bring rain showers but as the system tails off
cooler temperatures pushing in behind should yield the potential
for some snow showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday will feature weak high pressure
overhead with mostly weak zonal flow aloft that typically
results in very uncertain short term weather, which will lead us
to Thanksgiving Thursday. While models appear quite uncertain
there seems to at least be strong potential for some kind of
system aloft pushing through. However latest trends have been
drier as moisture becomes an issue with this system. This is an
area to watch especially given cooler conditions likely leading
to snow but the uncertainty remains high.

For the end of the week and through the weekend uncertainty
balloons as the upper levels become fairly hectic with the
systems the models produce but models also produce high pressure
of varying degrees over the Central US.

The other thing to monitor in this period is the fact that after
the system comes through Monday we should expect much cooler
conditions with highs only reaching near freezing and lows in
the teens as the upper low finally brings us our first dose of
true winter cold. And this will be somewhat of a pattern change
as the colder temperatures will be expected to stick around
into at least early December with no real warmth in sight in the
short term.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Widespread BKN MVFR CIGS continue across most of the southern WI
with these CIGS to continue as clouds push in from the west.
MVFR to even IFR CIGS will continue through much of tonight
before gradually improving into Saturday. Saturday will feature
a very slight chance for a shower or two but will otherwise
remain dry through the TAF period. Winds will be a little
breezy from the NW today but will come down into Saturday as
winds turn back more westerly.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Breezy north to northwest winds gusting to 30 knots will
gradually decrease as low pressure over the northeast United
States pushes further east and high pressure weakens and moves
into the area from the west. Southeast winds will eventually
pick up a bit by later Sunday as the high heads eastward in
advance of an approaching low to the south. The low will move
through by Monday night, bringing breezy west to northwest winds
behind the low Monday night into Tuesday as the low deepens
over the eastern Great Lakes region with high pressure
developing to the west. West high pressure expected through the
middle part of the week with much weaker winds overall.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 8 PM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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