223
FXUS63 KMKX 080829
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cooler with near normal/seasonal temps today through
  Thursday.

- Patchy frost possible tonight for areas along and northwest of
  HWY-151.

- Shower chances (20-30%) return overnight Thursday into Friday
  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 326 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Today and Tonight:

High pressure continues to build across WI today bringing
cooler temps in the 60s, mostly clear skies, lighter winds, and
dry conditions for much of southern WI. Given the north-
northeasterly winds over Lake Michigan, a narrow band of lake-
effect clouds has developed across the south-centeral part of
the lake. May see some of these lake-effect clouds move inland
for far southeastern WI today as winds turn a bit more
northeasterly. However, there is a very low potential to see
enough moisture from this activity to see a few light sprinkles
under this cover, but it will have to contend with increasing
subsidence and very dry airmass. Thus, will leave PoP mentions
out.

Looking at another cool night tonight with lows similar and
maybe a few degrees warmer than previous night. Overnight lows
will range from the mid to upper 30s for inland areas
along/west of the Kettle Moraine, while areas east closer to the
lake will remain warmer into the lower 40s.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 326 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

A gradual warming trend ensues for the latter half of the week
as potent high pressure shifts east of the region and surface
winds veer southerly, with ensemble temperature plots
approaching the 70s this weekend into early next week, likely
with a day or two in the mid 70s as well. Overnight low
temperatures exhibit a rising trend too, lifting well into the
40s for Thursday night (no frost threat expected), remaining
there Friday night, then lifting into the 50s afterwards.

Dry weather remains dominant Thursday, though a weak surface
cold front and accompanying 500mb shortwave trough pass through
Thursday night and yield a 10-30% rain chance, tapering into
early Friday. Looking dry and quiet mid Friday through mid
Sunday behind this front, with weak high pressure passing
northeast of the region.

A more amplified upper trough may then approach early next
week, with chances for showers and slight chances for
thunderstorms currently in the forecast Sunday night through
the remainder of the period.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 326 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail with light northerly winds becoming more
variable as high pressure builds across southern WI today. May
see some mid-level lake-effect clouds impact southeastern
terminals through the morning and afternoon, but generally
expecting cloud heights to remain above 4kft. Light and variable
winds and mostly clear skies continue tonight into Thursday.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 326 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Breezy northerly winds will gradually weaken through the
morning as high pressure builds over WI by this afternoon. Will
see this high pressure slowly work its way east across the Great
Lakes Region Thursday into Friday. This will bring light an
variable winds to Lake Michigan overnight tonight into Thursday
morning before turning more southerly through the day Thursday.
Increasing southerly winds are expected for Friday as low
pressure develops and works it way down across Lake Superior and
into the eastern Great Lakes for Saturday.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057 until 9 AM
     Wednesday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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