043
FXUS63 KMKX 221551
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
951 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures today through the
  weekend

- Rain chances return to the area Sunday night into Monday

- Colder weather is expected to settle into the area the second
  half of next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 950 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

No major changes to the forecast today.

A largely quiet period expected through this weekend with large
scale ridging dominating the region. At the surface weak high
pressure will sit over the region through the weekend. The only
uncertainty with this period is the possibility for a period of
light showers Saturday as a result of a fairly deep moisture
plume pushing through that with weak PVA pulling through could
allow for some light rain showers. CAMs seem to indicate a least
a chance but right now given the uncertainty in the forcing and
a little bit of dry air in the lowest levels we will carry just
10% chance from rain showers.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Today through Saturday:

Clouds will hang on today under the influence of broad cyclonic
flow, with some clearing possible tonight as upper ridging
briefly leans into the area. Lingering drizzle early this
morning should wind down by around daybreak per latest model
soundings. Increasing mid-level moisture and warm air advection
later tonight into Saturday will bring a return of mostly cloudy
skies to southern Wisconsin. The lower levels look generally
too dry for precipitation with the forcing tonight into Sat, so
kept the forecast dry for this period. Temps are expected to be
within a couple degrees of normal today and Saturday.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Sunday through Thursday:

Weak upper level riding will build back into the area Sunday
ahead of an approaching trough. Another round of warm air
advection ahead of the trough will likely keep mostly cloudy
skies going through Sunday. Despite the clouds, temps are
expected to sneak to a few degrees above normal, likely pushing
50 in at least the southern forecast area.

The upper trough and associated surface low are expected to move
through Sunday night into Monday, bringing a return of rain
chances to southern Wisconsin. Kept precip chances on the lower
end (20-30%) for now given timing/strength differences with the
low among models. Could see some snowflakes Monday night as a
colder airmass moves in on the backside of the departing low.
The bulk of the precip with this system is currently expected to
be rain though, given the general model consensus is taking the
surface low across the forecast area.

High pressure is expected to return Tuesday, brining dry weather
to the area Tuesday and possibly also Wednesday. Models are in
decent agreement with the broad picture for late week, showing a
shortwave rolling through bringing more precip chances by
Thursday night and then even colder temps for the end of the week
into the weekend.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 950 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Widespread BKN MVFR CIGS continue across most of the southern WI
with these CIGS likely to continue as as clouds fill in better
from the west during the day today. MVFR to even IFR CIGS will
continue through much of tonight before gradually improving into
Saturday. Saturday will feature a very slight chance for a
shower or two but will otherwise remain dry through the TAF
period. Wins will be a little breezy from the NW today but will
come down into Saturday as winds turn back more Westerly.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Breezy north to northwest winds gusting to 30 knots will
continue today between low pressure over the northeast United
States and high pressure over the Northern Plains. A Small Craft
Advisory continues into this evening across the nearshore
waters.

Winds will gradually ease tonight into the weekend as
the high moves into the area from the west. Southeast winds will
eventually pick up a bit by later Sunday as the high heads
eastward in advance of an approaching low. The low will move
through by Monday night, bringing breezy west to northwest winds
behind the low Monday night into Tuesday.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 6 PM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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