060
FXUS63 KMKX 250305
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
905 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers expected this evening into
  tonight, with low clouds and chances for drizzle lingering
  into Monday.

- Uncertainty with precipitation chances increases mid week and
  beyond. Recent trends suggest lower precip chances Wednesday.

- Colder weather is expected to settle into the area following
  the system Monday/Monday night, with even colder conditions
  likely late week into the weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 905 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Pockets of drizzle have developed as expected though perhaps a
bit more isolated than originally expected. This will likely
continue with WAA in the low levels in addition to fairly good
moisture. The better, more consistent precip remains further
north with the better forcing from PVA aloft in addition to
having more moisture in the midlevels. Thus we will continue to
primarily see impacts from drizzle. Latest models indicate
perhaps not as much potential into the evening so we have
trended PoPs lower into the overnight period but will continue
to carry chances across at least the northern parts of the CWA.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

WAA ahead of the approaching surface low is expected to create
scattered showers across the CWA this evening into tonight. Low
clouds and drizzle expected to linger into Monday as the low
drifts northeastward across Lake Michigan.

On the back side of it, northwest winds with gusts to roughly 30
MPH are expected Monday afternoon, with a 20-40% chance for a
brief shower of rain. Skies remain mostly cloudy until late
Monday night.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

Wly winds and cold advection will be ongoing Tue AM while the low
pressure area occludes over Quebec, then retrogrades to James Bay
for the remainder of the week. The winds will become light and
variable for Tue nt-Wed as a pressure col settles over srn WI.
Despite a lack of sfc features during this time, 20-30 percent
chances for snow and rain are forecast as a shortwave trough
coming across the central Rockies induces cyclogenesis from the
srn Great Plains to across the srn Ohio Valley or the TN Valley.
There will also be a weak shortwave trough digging sewd from Lake
Superior for Wed nt-Thu. Thus slight chances for lgt snow will
continue over ern WI on Thanksgiving Day. High temperatures will
be stuck in the 30s for Tue-Thu with lows in the 20s.

The continued nwly flow aloft will continue to bring shortwave
troughs into the area but also carving out a deep upper trough
from the Great to the Mid Atlantic States through the weekend into
early next week. The models lack agreement with the details but
overall nwly sfc flow and a polar airmass will reside over the
region. High temps only in the 20s are forecast for the weekend
with lows in the teens. Slight chances for lgt snow will continue
as well.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 905 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Spotty drizzle this evening across southern WI will continue
over at least the next few hours, perhaps impacting VSBYS so
some extent with possibility for some patchy fog. However MVFR
CIGS will continue with CIGS expected to fall to IFR/LIFR later
tonight into early Monday morning, possibly even to VLIFR in
spots. Modest east winds will largely dominate through tonight,
but as the low pushes through Monday we will see some breezy
northwest winds behind the low.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Low pressure of 29.7 inches will move northeast across southern
Lake Michigan Monday morning, continuing northeastward into Quebec
and deepening to 29.5 inches Tuesday.

As the low approaches, expect east to southeast winds to increase
to roughly 20 kt tonight. The southern half may observe a brief
period of light and variable winds Monday morning as the low
crosses over, followed by northwest winds with gusts to 30 kt in
the afternoon and evening. For the northern half of the lake,
east to northeast winds linger a bit longer, turning northwest
with gusts to 25 kt Monday night.

Gusty northwest winds linger into Tuesday, backing due west and
decelerating late. Modest north to northwest winds expected
Thursday through the end of the week as high pressure builds to
30.7 inches over British Columbia / Alberta and weak low pressure
lingers over eastern Canada.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...2 PM
     Monday to 9 AM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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