Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
115 FXUS63 KMKX 061554 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1054 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An Air Quality Advisory is in effect until noon Friday along the Lake Michigan shoreline due to wildfire smoke. - Mainly dry weather is likely through Friday, save for a few sprinkles in central Wisconsin, with a return of shower and storm chances Saturday afternoon into Monday. - Temperatures will remain within a few degrees of normal through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 1050 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 WI DNR air quality observation sites show improving concentrations of PM2.5 compared to the past few days. HRRR smoke fields also depict near surface smoke becoming less of a concern heading into this afternoon. Otherwise, widely scattered light rain will be possible over central Wisconsin into this evening, but most is not expected to reach the ground or fall as sprinkles with virga aloft. The rest of southern WI is expected to remain dry. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 357 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Today through Saturday: A weak 500 mb shortwave is approaching the Great Lakes Region from the central plains early this morning. Dewpoint depressions across southern Wisconsin remain good with values of 5 to 10 degrees. The drier air over the forecast area is due to a sfc high pressure system sitting over the northern Great Lake Region. The light rain showers across southwestern and central Wisconsin are are in an area of better upper level lift and smaller dewpoint depressions leading to light rain. Should any of these showers move into southern Wisconsin early this morning it is likely (60 to 80%) that they should remain as virga and thus keeping conditions dry. Throughout the day today and into Saturday afternoon there will be additional "wiggles" (shortwaves) moving through the 500 mb flow which will result in some nebulous upper level ascent. Isolated to scattered showers may appear on radar through the day and into the night, but high dewpoint depressions and drier air will remain in place through the forecast area resulting in more virga. The sfc high pressure will start to move eastward Saturday leading to the winds shifting to southeasterly. As the winds shift and high pressure moves out, forecast sounds are showing a slight increase in low level moisture which may finally allow some light rain to make it through and reach the ground. Therefore low chance POPs around 20% are in the forecast for Saturday. Any rain that does make it to the ground will be scattered to isolated and will be light. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 357 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Saturday night through Thursday: Saturday night into Sunday has become less uncertain as a front associated with a low pressure system in south-central Canada will slide through the Great Lakes region. This will be associated with a strong upper level low/trough pushing in. There will at least be a period of great moisture with this where precip would be considered likely (70-90%). In addition the latest timing trends have the front pushing through a bit later and thus we should expect some decent instability to build in ahead of the front (500-1000 J/kg). This should bring some concerns for storms and perhaps strong. Although shear isn`t overly impressive (30-40 kts) it is certainly enough to bring some risk for some strong to even severe storms. This will be something to monitor over the next few days with this potential risk. Expect some drying out Sunday night into Monday morning with some drier air aloft behind the front With the upper low pushing still pushing through Monday we expect additional precip chances into Monday with another chance for storms Monday afternoon. Shear in the models has definitely improved given models taking a more northerly track keeping us on the southerly side of the upper low and thus firmly in the region with better instability potential and higher end shear (40-50 kts). This will bring increased risk for severe storms Monday as well though there remains more uncertainty as the track of the upper low will greatly influence chances. The northerly track will keep chances higher while a southerly track will lower chances as deep layer shear will drop off if the base of the upper low is more overhead. The upper and surface low will push out into Tuesday with high pressure building in and better large scale ridging sliding in. Through at least midweek upper level ridging will remain over the region with strengthening high pressure. Increasing uncertainty later into next week with the next best chance for precip coming likely next Friday into Saturday. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR and light northeast winds are expected to last into tonight amid high pressure. Scattered light showers may occur over central WI, but dry low levels will likely lead to virga and sprinkles. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 357 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High pressure will linger across the northern Great Lakes Region through Saturday leading to light north to northeasterly winds. As the high pressure system moves eastward Saturday night winds will shift to southeasterly Sunday. Showers and a few storms are expected along the front Sunday night. Moderate southwest winds are expected behind the front Monday. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee