379
FXUS63 KMKX 281032
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
532 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High swim risk conditions will continue into Wednesday
  morning along all Lake Michigan beaches due to high waves and
  currents. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect.

- Warm and humid conditions return Thursday. Showers and
  thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening through Saturday,
  but are most likely Friday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 535 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Forecast is on track this morning. Low stratus have filled in
across southern Wisconsin through the overnight as temperatures
cool within a still moist low level air mass. 5-10 MPH winds
have prevented the boundary layer from decoupling in most
locations, which has held fog potential to nearly zero areawide.
Have seen a few reports of brief visibility reductions near the
state line where low level moisture is a touch deeper, but
nothing that will call for any headlines. Any patchy areas of
fog will quickly diminish as the sun comes up.

Expecting a warm but not hot day today, with noticeably lower
humidity compared to yesterday. Will see plenty of sun along
with the warm temperatures, though it could be filtered at times
as wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest attempts to move
into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Expecting any low
concentrations of smoke to remain in the mid-upper levels/well
away from the surface, thus making air quality concerns low.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Overnight through Wednesday:

The leading edge of the cold front is finally making it into
southern WI late this evening as the weak surface low moves into
lower Michigan. We can see a wind shift to the north, but temps
and dewpoints are still elevated. Lows tonight will be in the
60s. There are a few low clouds out there (patchy stratus), and
we cannot rule out some patchy fog once again.

The surface low will continue eastward Tuesday as an upper
trough becomes a little more amplified over the Great Lakes.
That slight amplification will help increase the northerly winds
over Lake Michigan and push the cooler and drier air from
northern WI into southern WI by daybreak. A period of low clouds
is expected just behind the front early Tuesday morning, but
the dry air and mixing (with steady north-northeast winds) will
quickly bring sunny skies for the rest of the day.

The Nighttime Microphysics IR composite satellite channel is
showing some upwelling along the Wisconsin coastline of Lake
Michigan. This should help enhance a lake breeze tomorrow and
bring even cooler temps to the lakeshore in the afternoon. High
temperatures will range from the low-mid 70s near the lakeshore
to the lower-mid 80s inland. A pocket up upper 80s is expected
in southwest WI. The biggest change will be the dewpoints. They
got into the upper 70s today and they will only be around 60
Tuesday.

Visible satellite had a milky appearance behind this front when
it was in northeast MN and Lake Superior this afternoon. The
HRRR & RRFS Smoke models are showing fair amounts of vertically
integrated smoke right behind the front in the morning, but then
more diffuse values in the afternoon. The surface smoke forecast
is much lower and nothing like the values we saw a week and a
half ago.

Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s under light winds and clear skies. Patchy fog is possible.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Thursday through Monday:

High pressure will begin to push east on Thursday, allowing for
southwesterly sfc return flow over Wisconsin. While the lingering
high should keep us dry through the day, surface dew points will
modestly moisten into the mid to upper 60s, with afternoon highs
again returning to the upper 80s.

Thursday night into Friday, low to mid level warm advection is
expected ahead of an approaching elongated trough over the western
Corn Belt. Showers and storms are expected on the leading edge of
this warm advection, but deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS
differ in the track of the trough and storms for the day on
Friday. The GFS favors a more northerly track that would keep rain
around for most of the day on Friday, while the ECMWF guidance
favors a more southerly track that would bring us a glancing blow
of rain in the morning, with drier conditions in the afternoon.
NBM PoPs somewhat favor the GFS solution at this time bringing
likely PoPs (~60%) into our area Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Chance PoPs (30 to 45%) then linger into Saturday
morning as the trough slowly pulls away to the east and south.

A sfc ridge will then build in behind the exiting trough,
promoting dry conditions for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
Friday through Sunday will remain seasonable with highs in the low
80s. By the end of the extended period, it looks like another
ridge from the plains leans east into Wisconsin, bringing warmer
temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 on Tuesday.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 535 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Low stratus clouds linger through sunrise across most of
southern Wisconsin with primarily MVFR CIGs. Have noted
occasional IFR observations through the overnight hours in
southeast Wisconsin, which have been accounted for in the 09/12Z
forecasts at ENW and MKE. Winds have largely prevented FG
development through the overnight, though sporadic VIS
reductions have been reported closer to the Wisconsin-Illnois
border. Have thus included TEMPO mentions of BR through 13Z at
ENW. Both low CIG and VIS readings will quickly improve after
sunrise. VFR flight categories prevail through the remainder of
the period as high pressure moves across the western Great
Lakes.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches over central Lake Michigan will
move to the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. The associated
cold front will track southward across Lake Michigan tonight. T
Northerly winds are expected to gust around 30 kt over central and
southern Lake Michigan late tonight through Tuesday. Much lighter
northerly winds are then expected late Tuesday night into
Wednesday as high pressure around 30.0 inches builds into the
northern Great Lakes. The high will maintain light winds for
Thursday and Friday as well, but winds will take on a more
southerly direction.

There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the nearshore zone
of southeast WI until late Tuesday night due to persistent
northerly winds up to 25 kt and 3 to 5 foot waves.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 10 AM Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 1 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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