775
FXUS63 KMKX 072004
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
304 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers remain possible this afternoon across
  southern WI, with a general tapering off in intensity going
  into tonight. Main impacts will be drops in visibility.

- Below normal temps expected early this week, with highs
  rebounding to near & just above normal by mid-week. Warmth
  returns this weekend.

- The next disturbance approaches Wednesday through Thursday,
  bringing additional chances for mostly rain to southern
  Wisconsin. Rain/snow mix is possible Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Chances for light snow showers continue through the rest of the
afternoon into early this evening. Soundings depict pockets of
instability within the DGZ, but also very dry low levels with
dry air from the sfc to 800 - 700mb. It`ll really be a battle
of whether or not the CAPE produces precip to beat out that dry
air layer this afternoon. Looking at early afternoon obs, the
dry air has been winning, given the lack of snow obs from
Sheboygan with reflectivity overhead. So, have cut back on QPF
to account for this. Still, with any of the remaining snow
showers, accumulations should be nil to a dusting, and main
travel concerns will be drops in visibility.

CAA into the region and clear skies tonight will lead to a
chilly April night, with lows in the upper teens/low twenties.
Cool but dry conditions will continue tomorrow as a high
pressure center passes overhead. Highs will be in the low to mid
40s.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Warm advection and a warm front moving close to the southern
border of WI on Wednesday will cause precipitation to blossom
during the morning hours. 800 to 700mb WAA/fgen will cause rain
to a rain/snow mix to begin the day, with a change over to all
rain by the late morning as the atmospheric profile warms.
Precip should then continue through the day as the low pressure
center moves west to east over central Illinois. While the main
low will move east Wednesday night, precip may linger overnight
and into Thursday morning as a weak sfc low moves southeast and
phases with the previous low pressure system.

Precip should end Thursday afternoon, with high pressure taking
hold Friday into Saturday and a large ridge forming over the
Great Plains. This ridge will lean over into the Upper Great
Lakes this upcoming weekend and bring a return to warmer
temperatures.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 241 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Snow showers remain possible this afternoon on a scattered
basis. Intensity should see a general decrease as the afternoon
and evening goes on, as drier air is expected to work in near
the surface and diurnal heating decreases. Main impacts will be
drops to visiblity. Ceilings should stay in the VFR range into
tonight, with a gradual clearing trend from northwest to
southeast. North winds should ease this evening, and grow light
and northwesterly by Tuesday morning.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Low pressure will continue to exit east through tonight over
southern Ontario. Gales are expected to ease over the northern
half of the lake over the next two hours, while gales over the
southern half of the lake will linger through 7 PM CDT. Gusty
north winds will remain elevated tonight and overlap with the
intrusion of cold air over the Upper Great Lakes. Moderate
Freezing Spray will be possible over the northern third to
northern half of the open waters now through midnight CDT.

North winds then ease going into Tuesday morning, and become
northwesterly with time. Winds then grow light and variable over
the lake Tuesday afternoon as high pressure moves southeast
over the lake. Moderately breezy south winds then return
Wednesday morning as warm advection moves over the region.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 until 4 PM Monday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 PM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 1 AM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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