Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
166 FXUS63 KMKX 241901 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry conditions with below normal temperatures will continue through the Memorial Day weekend. - Rain is likely (50 to 70 percent) to return to the area later Tuesday into Wednesday, with a 20 to 30 percent chance for rain showers lingering through most of the rest of next week. - Temperatures slowly moderate closer to seasonal normals by the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Tonight through Sunday night: Diurnal cumulus will persist through late afternoon, winding down this evening. Mid and high level clouds will likely hang around into tonight though, especially south of I-94, as a weak trough swings through. Though winds will be very light again tonight, the lingering clouds are expected to result in a somewhat milder night than last night. Another round of cumulus is expected mid-morning Sunday through the afternoon, with light winds and temps a few degrees below normal once again under high pressure. Similar to the last couple days, models are showing a very small chance for a shower or two in the afternoon. Confidence is low in this, so kept the forecast dry for now. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Monday through Saturday: High pressure will remain in place for Memorial Day, with very similar conditions as over the weekend. Expect partly cloudy skies, generally light winds, and temps a bit below normal (coolest near the lake). Confidence continues to increase in a return of rain showers to southern Wisconsin later Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad upper low will slowly move eastward through the region mid-week, with a surface low developing at the base of the low and lifting into the Great Lakes by Tuesday night. There remain some differences among models with the strength and timing of the surface low, but the overall picture points to a solid chance for rain Tue evening into at least Wed morning. With model precipitable water values increasing to 1-1.25", ensemble probs for measurable precip over 24 hours has increased to 90%+ among the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian solutions. Therefore, opted to bump 6-hr precip chances up to 50-70% for this system. Could see some rain showers linger through the rest of the work week, as the upper low slowly moves on to the east. Cooler conditions Tue/Wed with the low will gradually warm back up late week into the weekend as the low moves east and upper ridging begins to build in from the west. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Diurnal cumulus will wind down late this afternoon and early evening and then will be expected again Sunday, with clouds bases generally in the 4-6 kft range from mid/late morning through the afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will also be possible later today into tonight, as a weak shortwave pushes through the area. Otherwise, quiet weather will continue through Sunday as high pressure continues to build in from the north. Light north to northeast winds will continue today and prevail again tomorrow, with winds becoming more easterly in the east again tomorrow as a lake breeze rolls inland. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 High pressure of 30.4 inches centered to the north of Lake Superior will continue to gradually build southward into the Great Lakes region through this weekend. Generally light northerly winds are expected through the weekend as the high moves overhead. East to northeast winds are expected to pick up a little early next week as the high shifts eastward ahead of an approaching low pressure system. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee