631
FXUS63 KMKX 042044
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
244 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of light rain (55-75% chance) will lift through
  southern Wisconsin Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Becoming even cooler Friday into this weekend, with additional
  precip chances (50-70%) arriving Saturday into Sunday. Some
  accumulating snow can`t be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 244 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

It looked like sunshine was a sure bet for the afternoon, but
the mid level warm air advection prevailed and produced more
clouds than anticipated. As a result, the temperatures only got
into the mid-upper 50s (not quite 60) for most areas and winds
remained non-gusty. However, in southwest WI as the clouds
cleared out, gusts up to 23 mph developed, and temperatures rose
quickly into the lower 60s.

A mid level shortwave trough tracking across the Northern
Plains will have a developing resultant surface low that tracks
across central WI tonight. Ahead of the low, the strong low
level jet (LLJ) and warm air advection will lead to continued
mid and high level clouds over central and southern WI. The
better chance (up to 60%) for rain will be over far northern WI
and the U.P., but light rain or sprinkles may clip Fond du Lac
and Sheboygan counties as the LLJ (and associated lift) ramps up
this evening.

As the low exits toward northern Lower Michigan Wednesday
morning, a weak cold front and gusty northwest winds will spread
into southern WI. Mixing up to 3000 ft, which is not that deep,
will still tap into fairly strong winds up to 35 mph. Drier air
is expected to overtake the region Wednesday afternoon, and
skies will clear fairly quickly behind the system. High pressure
ridging in right behind it will allow for calm winds and a cool
night Wed nt, with lows in the upper 20s to around 30.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 244 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

The wind direction will quickly flip around to the south on
Thursday as our next ripple in the mid level flow approaches
from the Northern Plains. Yet again, we will see a period of
gusty southerly winds Thursday afternoon and evening. This time,
light rain is expected all along the warm air advection area
from southern IL through northern WI. Amounts will be light
(around 0.10 inch), and there is still uncertainty about
everyone getting some rain as there will be dry air in the
layers of atmosphere at times. Basically, it does not look like
there will be a specific time period where the entire column is
saturated.

The surface low will cross Lake Superior Friday afternoon and
the associated cold front and west- northwest winds will slide
into southern WI. The pressure gradient will be weaker with
this system (compared to the one tomorrow), but the air will be
colder behind it. Friday night lows will be just below freezing,
with a potential for spots with an early development of clear
skies and light winds to bottom out in the upper 20s. There is
a chance that clouds could fill in earlier than expected with
the next approaching system, so that would limit our cooling.

Low pressure will deepen as it tracks across central IL
Saturday afternoon or evening due to a digging upper trough.
This is a classic type system that brings a fairly narrow swath
of higher precipitation along the northwest side of its path
where the frontogenesis is strongest. The exact track of this
low will waffle north and south between model runs over the next
several days, so be ready for forecast changes. This system
will be drawing cold air aloft (-2 to -9C) into its back side
(northwest) which is coincident with the higher precip amounts.
Higher rates will allow for more rapid cooling from the top
down, so accumulating snow is a real possibility. It just might
be in northern IL rather than southern WI, so we will keep an
eye on this.

Outside of the main axis of precip, expect a rain/snow mix on
the northern fringe, and rain near the lake. Onshore winds off
the 55 degree lake will likely keep us all rain there. Expect
brisk northerly winds Saturday night, along with flurries.
Another extension of the upper low will be cross the Upper
Great Lakes Sunday, which will keep us mostly cloudy with a
chance of flurries or sprinkles through Monday. Lows will be
solidly around 20 degrees Sunday night and Monday night inland
from Lake Michigan.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 244 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

The mid level clouds have been slow to clear today, and
therefore the winds did not become very gusty. There is still a
clearing trend from southwest to northeast this afternoon, but
there will not be much time to mix out before it gets dark and
stable at the surface.

After dark, expect south-southwest winds to increase just above
the surface and give us a long stretch of non-convective low
level wind shear up to 45 kt over southern WI through around 2
AM. Winds aloft will become westerly and diminish a little early
Wednesday morning, and then northwest winds will become gusty
up to 30 kt during the daylight hours Wednesday.

Expect VFR ceilings through the period. Cloud bases may be
3500 to 5000 ft Wednesday morning before they mix out with the
gusty winds and dry air spreading in.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 244 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

A brief period of gusty south to southwest winds is expected
over Lake Michigan this evening as low pressure crosses
Northern Wisconsin. With the strong warm air advection aloft,
the mixing should not be deep enough to tap into the strong low
level jet of up to 45 kt, so not expecting gales at the lake
surface.

Winds will become northwest behind the surface low and
associated cold front Wednesday morning. A few gale force gusts
will be possible during the early Wednesday afternoon hours,
especially in the mid and southern open lake areas.

No change to the Small Craft Advisory that runs from this
evening through Wednesday evening.

The next potential for southerly gales for the Open Waters is
Thursday night. This is due to low pressure crossing northern
Minnesota and Lake Superior. Brisk northwest winds will ensue
behind the low Friday afternoon and evening, but gusts are
expected to remain below gale force. Brisk northwest winds will
persist through Monday as broad low pressure sits over the Upper
Great Lakes and a high builds in to the central Plains.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM
     Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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