293
FXUS63 KMKX 191955
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall drier and less humid through the rest of the week.

- Fog is expected inland from Lake Michigan tonight. Areas near
  and west of Madison may see some dense fog.

- Chance for a few isolated to scattered sprinkles area-wide
  through Wednesday afternoon.

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from 7am Wednesday to
  4am Thursday for waves of 3 to 6 feet and dangerous currents.
  It is advised to stay away from piers and breakwalls during
  this time, and avoid swimming at Lake Michigan beaches during
  this time period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Areas of stratocu will persist into tonight, generally becoming
a bit more scattered with time. Models seem to suggest a
weakening inverted trough will sink south across the state
tonight, bringing chances for showers. Given the subsidence
visible on water vapor over the state, there is some skepticism
in this. Even so, the potential for isolated to scattered
spinkles were added to the forecast, mainly during the early
morning hours.

Along with the sprinkle potential, fog is expected inland from
Lake Michigan tonight, owing to subsidence, light winds, and
lingering low level moisture. Fog may grow dense in spots,
especially for areas along and west of the longitude of Madison.

Toward daybreak tomorrow, northeast winds will take hold driving
some potential for sprinkles during the afternoon as a result of
shoreline convergence. Scattered stratocu clouds will continue
to linger, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The northeast winds will be breezy over the lake tomorrow,
causing high swim risk conditions at Milwaukee, Racine, and
Kenosha counties. Waves of 3 to 6 feet are expected along with
dangerous currents. Swimming is not advised between 7am
Wednesday to 4am Thursday while the Beach Hazard Statement is in
effect.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

An upper level ridge will sharpen Thursday, promoting continued
seasonable warmth. High pressure near the surface will continue
to drive northeast flow off of the lake, keeping near surface
dew points relatively low. Winds will come around to southerly
on Friday as the low exits and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Said cold front will move over the area from
northwest to southeast Friday evening, but a lack of convergence
along the front and relatively low moisture/PWATs ahead of the
front will keep shower activity fairly broken. NBM PoPs range
from 15 to 25% chances along the boundary at this time.

Following the frontal passage, cool dry air will be pushed into
the Great Lakes by a large occluded extra-tropical cyclone near
the Hudson Bay. Highs will only top out near 70 toward the end
fo the extended period amid continuing dry conditions.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Clouds have scattered somewhat this afternoon, allowing SCT to
CLR conditions at times over parts of southern WI. Other BKN to
OVC MVFR ceilings persist. Models project clouds continuing to
scatter into tonight beneath subsidence aloft. With low level
moisture lingering, fog is expected overnight, mainly inland
from Lake Michigan. A some scattered areas of clouds may linger
overnight as well, leading to some isolated to sct`d sprinkles.

Daytime cu is expected to return tomorrow, with continuing
chances for sprinkles.

Light north winds will continue into this
evening and will become light and variable overnight. Winds then
become northeasterly tomorrow.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 220 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Higher pressure will remain over the Great Lakes through
Friday. A breezy period of northerly winds will persist today
through tomorrow as the high pressure moves in behind retreating
low pressure. Light to moderate north winds are then expected
Wednesday night into early Friday, before winds turn southerly
Friday morning head of an approaching cold front.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 AM
     Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Wednesday
     to 4 AM Thursday.

&&

$$

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