Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
279 FXUS63 KMKX 130319 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 919 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the remainder of the week. - 30 to 50 percent chances for rain showers early next week along with cooler temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued 919 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Areas of high clouds will continue this evening into early tonight, with some decrease in coverage possible later tonight. Forecast lows look on track for tonight, with no significant update to the forecast anticipated. DDV && .SHORT TERM... Issued 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Tonight through Thursday night: West to northwest winds will decrease into the evening as the low pressure pushes east with higher pressure pushing in and reducing the pressure gradient across the CWA. This will come as ridging overhead pushes in Thursday keeping conditions largely clear across the CWA. There will be some mid to upper level clouds in the southwest tonight with some additional low to midlevel clouds swing through the CWA Thursday afternoon and more so into the night associated with some 700mb moisture. However these cloud decks will likely not be very thick and will also not stick around very long either. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Friday through Wednesday: Overall we expect a fairly quiet extended period at this point with Friday into Saturday featuring a developing low in central Canada bring southerly flow and WAA across the region bringing increasing temperatures into the 60s, with the warmer day on Saturday. The upper levels suggest slight potential for some showers given some moisture and PVA for eastern parts of the CWA Saturday but limited moisture in the low to mid levels will really hinder any real precip chances. The front is expected to come through Saturday night bringing cooler conditions back to the region for Sunday. There is some chances for showers come early next week, Monday night into Tuesday but this still remains very uncertain. This is largely due to the uncertainty in the track of a developing surface low and corresponding upper low from the west and the interaction with a surface high/upper ridge dropping into the Great Lakes region from Canada. The interaction between these two systems will ultimately determine how that period pans out but it is certainly worth mentioning as it looks to be the next best chance for precip. We will also be watching late next week for the next system to push through the area that would likely lead to rain as it looks to be a warmer system and a fairly high chance (relatively for the time frame) for some precip given unusual model agreement that far out. This model agreement doesn`t suggest precip will happen but rather shows a larger system that despite expected changes to the track, etc., we would still likely see fairly decent chances for precip. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 919 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Borderline low level wind shear conditions through late evening will ease overnight as high pressure begins to move into the area. Wind shear is expected to stay just under criteria to mention in TAFs. Otherwise, expect areas of high clouds at times tonight and Thursday along with lighter winds. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Brisk northwest winds will continue into this evening as low pressure gradually pushes out of the Great Lakes region. The low will push east tonight as higher pressure and a weaker pressure gradient move in from the west. This surface high will then move east across the lake Thursday night with light winds becoming variable. Modest southeast winds will then develop for Friday as another strong low begins to move east across southern Canada. Breezy southerly winds will develop Friday night into Saturday as the Canadian low continues eastward. Its strong cold frontal passage will then shift winds to brisk northwesterly for Saturday night into Sunday over the lake. Gales will be possible on the cold advection side behind the frontal passage Sunday. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the mid evening for breezy west to northwest winds. The advisory may need to be extended a few hours. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed over the next week particularly Saturday evening through much of Sunday. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee