201
FXUS63 KMKX 100224
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
924 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above average temperatures over the next several days
  with highs peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s.

- Light, scattered shower chances (30-70%) return to southern WI
  late tonight into Friday morning and may linger in southeast
  WI into the afternoon Friday. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of
  thunder late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 925 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Forecast remains mostly on track this evening. GOES water vapor
imagery shows an upper trough along the Ontario-Manitoba border,
with an attendant surface cold front being analyzed along the
South Dakota-Minnesota border. Responding to the encroaching
upper trough, broad 925-700 mb warm advection has been noted in
regional soundings, VWPs, and mesoscale model guidance, and is
responsible for the area of scattered convection currently
ongoing across western Wisconsin. Said wing of warm advection
will advance into southern Wisconsin tonight into Friday
morning, bringing rain chances to the area. Forecast soundings
depict weak (~250-500 J/kg) MUCAPE through Friday morning,
supporting some potential for embedded thunder & lightning.
Don`t expect strong/severe hazards in any embedded
thunderstorms. The trailing cold front will move across the area
Friday afternoon, bringing a gusty west-northwest wind shift to
southern Wisconsin.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

The surface high will gradually push out to the east tonight.
As the high pressure pushes east a surface low from northern
Canada will bring weak low pressure as a cold front into the
region. A secondary low will for over the Great Lakes region but
the front itself is still expected to be fairly weak. However,
it will be associated with a more significant upper low with
strong PVA. This will generally move through late tonight
through Friday morning bringing chances for showers and maybe
even a few rumbles of thunder. Best chance for thunder looks
more after daylight and focused further south.

The main uncertainty comes from some deviations in the moisture
fields at the various levels but there appears to be enough
overlapping moisture to limit concerns. In addition, WAA and
some LLJ impacts increase forcing in these areas as well. This
generally points toward at least a 40% chance of precipitation
at some point late tonight into the early afternoon Friday for
most in the CWA (exception for far southeast WI). The best
chances will be further west when the low to mid levels moisture
are aligned a bit better and become a bit more disjointed as
this pushes east leading to lower chances further east. High
pressure will then push back in Friday night bring quiet
conditions back to southern WI and at least some chilly
overnight lows.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure will dominate the region into the weekend as weak
upper level ridging remains in place. This will keep Saturday
mostly quiet and Sunday as well. Given the lack of moisture
Sunday in the low to mid levels Sunday looks very likely to
remain dry though some low level moisture Saturday may at least
keep some clouds sticking around, particularly far eastern parts
of the CWA. However, overnight Sunday into Monday a surface low
will push in from the west as an upper trough lifts through the
northern Central Plains bringing some trailing shortwave energy.
In the low to mid level moisture returns and WAA will bring
additional potential. Storms look unlikely with this at this
time given the lack of instability but scattered showers would
be expected for at least portions of the CWA. The chances seem
primarily focused Sunday night into Monday morning before it
pushes out.

While high pressure looks likely to fill in behind this system
later Monday, uncertainty balloons as models suggest a bit of a
zonal flow period aloft. Models do suggest some level of
activity in addition to the conceptual understanding that zonal
flow does not typically remain in place very long. Whether this
period becomes dominated by the upper low to the north or the
ridging to the south will be the main question headed into the
middle of next week.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 925 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR flight categories prevail beneath predominantly SKC conditions
this evening. An upper disturbance will approach from the Northern
Plains during the second half of the overnight hours, resulting in
increasing cloud cover after midnight. Increasing lift tied to the
approaching disturbance will introduce -SHRA potential at all fields
near/after daybreak Friday at all fields. Given high enough forecast
confidence, have introduced/maintained prevailing -SHRA groups at
all terminals in the 00Z update. Don`t currently anticipate any
MVFR CIGs in -SHRA, though minor VIS drops will be possible as -SHRA
pass through. An increasing low level jet will support chances
for LLWS at western fields during the predawn hours, with
potential being accounted for at MSN and JVL in the 00Z update.
A cold front will cross southern Wisconsin Friday afternoon,
resulting in a gusty west-northwest wind shift by late afternoon
at all aerodromes. Cloud cover will decrease during & after the
frontal passage.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

High pressure will continue to migrate eastward across the
northeast US tonight. South to southeasterly winds into tonight
but as a low pressure system develops over the northwestern
Great Lakes tonight pushing southeast the pressure gradient will
increase as lower pressure impinges on the high pressure to the
east. Breezy southwesterly winds are expected later tonight
through Friday lingering into Friday night. There will be some
gale gusts possible Friday morning, especially across the
northern open waters, but overall gales are not expected to be
widespread or numerous. We will then see north to northeast
winds move in behind the front beginning Friday afternoon,
continuing Saturday through Sunday as the low pressure moves
into southern Michigan. Winds then begin to veer back to the
south for the start of next week with another low pressure
system developing and working its way across Plains and Upper
Midwest.

Otherwise a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
nearshore areas late tonight through Friday for wind gusts up to
30 knots, lingering through the evening for areas around and north
of Port Washington.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...3 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 AM Friday to 7
     PM Friday.

&&

$$

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