Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
838 FXUS63 KMKX 121936 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few scattered showers and thunderstorms through early evening. - Quiet weather through at least Monday, with increasing rain chances toward mid week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Rest of this Afternoon through Sunday night: A weak cold front is making its way across the region this afternoon, with just a few scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary. Convection is struggling this afternoon due to weak forcing and marginal thermo. Storm coverage will be greatest through late afternoon across east central Wisconsin, with lower coverage and intensity with southward extent. Showers/storms should clear the area by early to mid evening. Cooler and drier air filters into the area tonight, with lows falling into the upper 50s and low 60s. Will need to watch for fog, perhaps dense in some spots across south central and southwestern Wisconsin after midnight. Pleasant conditions are expected Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Wildfire smoke will be a concern at times on Sunday, with a milky appearance to the sky and some minor visibility reductions at the surface. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Monday through Saturday: Quiet weather continues for Monday, with highs warming into the mid to perhaps upper 80s. A washed out frontal boundary over central and western Wisconsin may trigger a few showers during the afternoon, with a low chance (10-15%) of a few of those making into areas north and west of Madison. A more active pattern arrives Tuesday and especially Wednesday and Thursday, with numerous shortwaves traversing the Great Lakes within a quasi-zonal mid and upper level flow. A frontal boundary will remain stationary across central or northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan, and then stretch back to the west and southwest through southern Minnesota and into the central Plains. This will serve as a focus for multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms, with at least some of the activity progressing into southern Wisconsin. The timing and placement of individual rounds will be tough to predict more than a day or so in advance, as each round will be dependent on the round before it. With the expectation of rain and abundant cloud cover, temperatures during this time will be around average (low-mid 80s), with high humidity. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Ceilings are improving to VFR behind a cold front, which is bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon. This activity will remain scattered and should exit the region by early to mid evening. Light winds are expected overnight, with some patchy fog possible. VFR is generally expected on Sunday, though Canadian wildfire smoke may cause some brief drops in surface visibility at times. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Low pressure of 29.5 inches will continue to lift northward across Ontario and into the James Bay region tonight. A weak cold front will cross the lake this evening, with winds gradually turning more westerly as the front progresses eastward. High pressure of 29.9 inches will move across the southern portion of the lake on Sunday. Southerly flow then returns to the lake on Monday, continuing through at least Tuesday. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee