Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
399 FXUS63 KMKX 242109 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 309 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light rain showers expected this evening into tonight, with low clouds and chances for drizzle lingering into Monday. - Uncertainty with precipitation chances increases mid week and beyond. Recent trends suggest lower precip chances Wednesday. - Colder weather is expected to settle into the area following the system Monday/Monday night, with even colder conditions likely late week into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Tonight through Monday night: WAA ahead of the approaching surface low is expected to create scattered showers across the CWA this evening into tonight. Low clouds and drizzle expected to linger into Monday as the low drifts northeastward across Lake Michigan. On the back side of it, northwest winds with gusts to roughly 30 MPH are expected Monday afternoon, with a 20-40% chance for a brief shower of rain. Skies remain mostly cloudy until late Monday night. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Tuesday through Sunday: Wly winds and cold advection will be ongoing Tue AM while the low pressure area occludes over Quebec, then retrogrades to James Bay for the remainder of the week. The winds will become light and variable for Tue nt-Wed as a pressure col settles over srn WI. Despite a lack of sfc features during this time, 20-30 percent chances for snow and rain are forecast as a shortwave trough coming across the central Rockies induces cyclogenesis from the srn Great Plains to across the srn Ohio Valley or the TN Valley. There will also be a weak shortwave trough digging sewd from Lake Superior for Wed nt-Thu. Thus slight chances for lgt snow will continue over ern WI on Thanksgiving Day. High temperatures will be stuck in the 30s for Tue-Thu with lows in the 20s. The continued nwly flow aloft will continue to bring shortwave troughs into the area but also carving out a deep upper trough from the Great to the Mid Atlantic States through the weekend into early next week. The models lack agreement with the details but overall nwly sfc flow and a polar airmass will reside over the region. High temps only in the 20s are forecast for the weekend with lows in the teens. Slight chances for lgt snow will continue as well. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Dry weather likely to continue until this evening. A scattered to broken cloud deck around 1,500 ft AGL may lead to some intermittent MVFR this afternoon. Else, VFR with overcast clouds around 7,000 ft. Surface low pressure is expected to track from roughly Kansas City MO through far southeastern WI this evening into Monday morning, resulting in scattered rain showers after 6 PM this evening through tonight. Cloud ceilings gradually descend as this activity occurs, leading to widespread IFR / LIFR ceilings by early Monday. Ceilings slowly improve throughout the daytime Monday with winds turning northwest and gusting 20-25 kt. Despite this improvement, 1,500 to 3,000 ft MVFR cloud ceilings (stratocumulus) are looking likely throughout Monday afternoon, with slight chances for brief rain showers. Clouds erode and shower chances diminish Monday night. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Low pressure of 29.7 inches will move northeast across southern Lake Michigan Monday morning, continuing northeastward into Quebec and deepening to 29.5 inches Tuesday. As the low approaches, expect east to southeast winds to increase to roughly 20 kt tonight. The southern half may observe a brief period of light and variable winds Monday morning as the low crosses over, followed by northwest winds with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon and evening. For the northern half of the lake, east to northeast winds linger a bit longer, turning northwest with gusts to 25 kt Monday night. Gusty northwest winds linger into Tuesday, backing due west and decelerating late. Modest north to northwest winds expected Thursday through the end of the week as high pressure builds to 30.7 inches over British Columbia / Alberta and weak low pressure lingers over eastern Canada. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee