290
FXUS63 KMKX 070238 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
938 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible in the east late tonight into early
  Wednesday.

- Cold front on Wednesday will bring a brief, yet significant
  cool down Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday.

- Generally dry and seasonable heading into the end of the week
  and warming up into into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 938 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

There will be a few areas of mid and high level clouds at times
overnight, but otherwise mostly clear skies and light winds are
expected. Still expecting the back door cold front to begin to
move in from the north by daybreak tomorrow, likely hitting
lakeshore areas first. Some models are still hinting at a low
cloud and fog potential near the lake behind the front, but not
sold on this scenario yet. Will keep an eye on upstream
conditions to see if this begins to develop.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 130 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

A weak area of low pressure will slide south over the region
tonight as higher pressure develops and strengthens over central
Canada and shifts a bit to the south. Into the day Wednesday, as
the high pushes over the northern lake we will start to see a
backdoor cold from develop over the lake, pushing southwest.
This "pneumonia" front will likely start pushing through by the
mid to late morning and push across the entire CWA by the mid to late
afternoon. This will bring fairly chilly temperatures behind it
along with some gusty winds. So while the day may start off
warm, when this front comes through immediately expect chilly
and breezy conditions with and behind it. These types of events
can also bring some lower level clouds and perhaps even some fog
near the lake for a brief period. While this is not expected we
cannot rule out that potential with increased moisture from the
lake, convergence along the front and rapid cooling directly
behind it. This does not usually last long but a couple hours
could see these impacts near the lake. In addition temperatures
may be a bit overdone here depending on how quickly the front
pushes through. If it comes through more quickly temperatures
may not be expected to warm as much as currently forecast.

Wednesday night with the front having passed through will get
chilly with lows falling to the mid to upper 30s with breezy
conditions to start and gradually weakening. Toward the end of
the night we could see some patchy frost develop in the northern
parts of the CWA but that will largely depend of the state of
the winds. A dry shortwave is also expected to push through
Wednesday night that could bring some higher clouds

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 130 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

Thursday will remain fairly chilly, particularly closer to the
lake with northeast winds largely remaining in place behind the
front that came through Wednesday. Lake breeze will likely carry
across much of the CWA later in the day largely preventing the
CWA from seeing temps above around 65 degrees. Temps in the east
may not get out of the low 50s.

Friday through the remainder of the extended period looks likely
to be dominated by large scale ridging overhead. While models
may disagree to some extent about how things develop around the
upper ridge it seems very unlikely at this point that the ridge
would break down to the point of bringing precip to southern WI.
The models are very suggestive of the midwest looking to remain
largely dry and warm with higher pressure mostly dominating the
region. The Lake Breeze will likely play a major role throughout
this period for afternoon temperatures especially near the lake.
Some models suggest there is a very slight chance (~15%) for
precip Saturday and again Tuesday but outside of very weak
shortwave activity with very little moisture support in the low
to mid levels. This could change but right now the the ridging
looks likely to be the feature dominating the region overall.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 938 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

There will be a few areas of mid and high level clouds at times
overnight, but otherwise mostly clear skies and light winds are
expected. Still expecting the back door cold front to begin to
move in from the north by daybreak tomorrow, likely hitting
lakeshore areas first. This will cause wind to shift to the
north/northeast and become breezy, especially near the lake.
Some models are still hinting at a low cloud and fog potential
near the lake behind the front late tonight into early
Wednesday, but not sold on this scenario yet. Will keep an eye
on upstream conditions to see if this begins to develop.

Breezy north to northeast winds will persist Wednesday into
Wednesday night, especially along and southeast of a line from
Sheboygan to Janesville where gusts of 25 to 30 knots will be
possible in the afternoon and evening.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 130 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Light and variable winds are expected tonight as weak low
pressure weakens and departs. North to northeast winds will
increase Wednesday morning and become gusty as a cold front
moves southward across the lake associated with high pressure
moving into Ontario. A few gales will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening. In addition a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect Wednesday morning into Thursday morning with winds up to
30 knots and waves from 4-6 feet. Winds will weaken and become
more northeasterly on Thursday as the high pressure shifts over
the lake and weakens. That high will remain in control across
the lake through at least the early part of the weekend, with
light winds prevailing. As the high begins to push east early
next week, winds will turn southerly.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...7 AM Wednesday to 8 AM
     Thursday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Wednesday to 10
     AM Thursday.

&&

$$

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