Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
532 FXUS63 KMKX 130759 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoky conditions aloft and near the surface from Canadian wildfires expected today resulting in minor visibility reductions and a WI DNR issued Air Quality Alert across all of southern WI. - Dry weather expected through start of the week, then increasing chances (20-60%) for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Today and Tonight: Quieter end to the weekend as high pressure skirts south of the Great Lakes today. Will see lighter westerly winds prevail across much of the area. Meanwhile upper-level northwesterly flow is set up across the Upper Midwest on the backside of the departing trough. This looks to bring in smoky conditions from the Canadian wildfires to WI. Expecting hazy and filtered skies from the smoke today, but also could see it mix down to the surface. The latest HRRR runs continue to depict a swath of near surface smoke to work its way across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and into WI through the morning. Overall expecting hazy surface visibility around 5-6 miles at times through the day. Otherwise, WI DNR has issued a Air Quality Alert for these smoky conditions as it reaches unhealthy levels, especially for sensitive groups. Conditions are progged to improve through the evening as more zonal upper-level flow builds aloft and southerly surface flow moves into the region. Hazy skies may also impact temps today given the filtered sunlight, but still looking at near normal temps and relatively drier dewpoints. Highs still look to top off in the upper 70s to lower 80s across southern WI, while overnight lows dip into the 60s. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Monday through Saturday: Mostly quiet weather is expected early in the week under the upper level zonal flow. Southerly flow in the mid and low levels will keep up WAA up. Highs will be warming Monday into the upper 80s and in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday. Similar to the end of last week, there will be a small chance around 15% for some showers Monday afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will be moving through the state and could provide enough lift with diurnal heating and moisture to get some isolated showers/storms. A more active pattern will move in arrives later Tuesday through Thursday. The zonal flow will remain in place until Wednesday,but multiple shortwaves will move through the upper level flow. A trough in the Pacific Northwest will begin to swing east into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region for Wednesday. At the sfc a frontal boundary will remain mostly stationary across northern/central Wisconsin and northern Michigan. This frontal boundary will be a focus point for multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Models are all over the place on timing and placement of individual rounds. Its tough to predict which ones will move into southern Wisconsin and when especially this far out in advance. Each rounds evolution will depend on the round prior to it. This system will slowly move out to the east overtime leading to drier conditions for the end of the weekend and into the weekend. Guidance suggests high pressure moving in for Friday and lingering in the Great Lakes Region for the start of the weekend. Temperatures for the midweek and into the weekend will be right around normal/average in the low to mid 80s. Persistent overcast skies and rain could drops temps a bit lower at times, but will have to keep an eye on the rain evolution as we get closer to mid week. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 High pressure passing to the south will bring light westerly winds to southern WI today. While expecting drier conditions and some high clouds, Canadian wildfire smoke is progged to move into southern WI bring hazy, filtered sky cover and periods of minor reduced surface visibility generally between 5-6sm through the afternoon. Smoky conditions expected to improve through the evening hours and VFR conditions will prevail into Monday. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Lighter westerly winds expected today as high pressure moves across the southern portions of the Great Lakes into Monday. Southerly flow then returns to Lake Michigan on Monday as the high pushes further east. Increasing southerly winds are expected Tuesday through midweek as a low pressure system develops across the Plains and moves across the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee