Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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674
FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPMIL
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ST MARY R AT INTNL BOUNDARY MT
SMBM8 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MILK R AT EASTERN CROSSING MT
ERNM8 9.5 11.0 13.0 | 6 6 6 | 5 5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG SANDY CR AT HAVRE MT 7WSW
BSMM8 8.5 10.0 12.0 | 16 20 13 | 12 9 7 | 10 6 <5
:MILK R AT HAVRE MT 2WNW
HVRM8 10.0 15.0 18.0 | 7 7 6 | 5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LODGE CR AT INTNL BOUNDRY MT
LGEM8 7.0 9.5 12.0 | 12 31 29 | 5 5 19 | <5 <5 <5
:BATTLE CR AT CHINOOK MT 4N
BCMM8 10.0 12.0 14.0 | <5 5 19 | <5 <5 12 | <5 <5 11
:CLEAR CR AT CHINOOK MT 7W
CCMM8 5.5 6.5 8.0 | 95 40 28 | 94 32 25 | 49 26 19
:MILK R AT HARLEM MT 4SSE
HRLM8 21.0 23.0 25.0 | <5 9 19 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 <5
:MILK R AT DODSON MT 2W
DMRM8 23.0 28.0 31.0 | <5 6 14 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MILK R AT MALTA MT
MALM8 16.0 19.0 22.0 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MILK R AT SACO MT 7NE
SACM8 20.0 22.0 24.0 | <5 <5 14 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CR AT HINSDALE MT 4NW
BCHM8 14.0 16.0 17.0 | <5 12 14 | <5 8 11 | <5 7 10
:MILK R AT TAMPICO MT
TMPM8 23.0 24.0 27.0 | <5 12 20 | <5 11 19 | <5 <5 6
:MILK R AT GLASGOW MT 3SE
GLWM8 25.0 29.0 31.0 | 5 16 36 | <5 11 17 | <5 5 9
:MILK R AT NASHUA MT 1SW
NSHM8 20.0 28.0 30.0 | <5 11 16 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5
:POPLAR R AT POPLAR MT 1N
PLRM8 16.0 18.0 20.0 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT WOLF POINT MT 5SE
WPTM8 23.0 26.5 27.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT CULBERTSON MT 3SE
CLBM8 19.0 21.0 25.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT WILLISTON ND 5SW
WLTN8 22.0 24.0 26.0 | 15 6 42 | <5 <5 25 | <5 <5 8
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ST MARY R
SMBM8 4.9/ 5.3/ 5.6/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.5/ 6.7/
:MILK R
ERNM8 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 4.6/ 4.3/ 6.9/ 11.2/
:BIG SANDY CR
BSMM8 4.6/ 4.8/ 5.2/ 8.1/ 7.3/ 12.5/ 13.9/
:MILK R
HVRM8 1.9/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 6.1/ 5.5/ 9.3/ 13.9/
:LODGE CR
LGEM8 3.4/ 4.3/ 4.7/ 6.7/ 6.5/ 7.2/ 9.5/
:BATTLE CR
BCMM8 3.8/ 4.2/ 4.8/ 7.4/ 6.8/ 8.9/ 9.7/
:CLEAR CR
CCMM8 5.6/ 6.6/ 7.3/ 9.3/ 8.7/ 9.7/ 11.6/
:MILK R
HRLM8 8.8/ 9.7/ 11.3/ 16.9/ 15.4/ 18.5/ 20.5/
DMRM8 7.0/ 8.0/ 9.5/ 14.9/ 14.5/ 17.3/ 19.8/
MALM8 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 7.3/ 6.6/ 8.5/ 10.3/
SACM8 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.9/ 11.2/ 10.3/ 13.3/ 14.8/
:BEAVER CR
BCHM8 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 7.0/ 6.5/ 10.9/ 12.9/
:MILK R
TMPM8 7.2/ 7.9/ 9.2/ 16.6/ 15.9/ 18.3/ 20.7/
GLWM8 10.9/ 11.7/ 13.5/ 20.0/ 19.4/ 20.8/ 24.8/
NSHM8 8.5/ 8.6/ 9.7/ 12.6/ 12.4/ 13.8/ 16.1/
:POPLAR R
PLRM8 8.4/ 8.5/ 8.6/ 9.1/ 9.0/ 10.3/ 12.8/
:MISSOURI R
WPTM8 13.2/ 13.2/ 13.2/ 13.6/ 13.5/ 14.1/ 14.5/
CLBM8 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 7.1/
WLTN8 18.5/ 19.3/ 20.0/ 21.8/ 21.7/ 22.5/ 23.5/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ST MARY R
SMBM8 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/
:MILK R
ERNM8 2.4/ 2.3/ 1.7/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/
:BIG SANDY CR
BSMM8 3.8/ 3.2/ 2.6/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/
:MILK R
HVRM8 1.2/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/
:LODGE CR
LGEM8 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.5/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/
:BATTLE CR
BCMM8 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
:CLEAR CR
CCMM8 2.4/ 2.3/ 1.9/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/
:MILK R
HRLM8 5.4/ 5.2/ 4.4/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.2/ 2.0/
DMRM8 4.4/ 4.2/ 3.6/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/
MALM8 2.2/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/
SACM8 3.7/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/
:BEAVER CR
BCHM8 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/
:MILK R
TMPM8 4.8/ 3.6/ 2.5/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/
GLWM8 7.7/ 5.9/ 4.1/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/
NSHM8 3.4/ 2.4/ 1.7/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/
:POPLAR R
PLRM8 7.3/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.8/
:MISSOURI R
WPTM8 10.8/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.4/
CLBM8 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9/
WLTN8 16.8/ 16.7/ 16.5/ 16.0/ 16.1/ 15.7/ 14.7/
.END
$$