367
FNUS72 KMHX 220856
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Black Swamp Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
456 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION....
A cold front will push off the NC coast this morning. Broad
troughing then continues over the region today with another
reinforcing dry cold front moving through late tonight. Cool and
dry high pressure then builds in from the west tomorrow through
most of the holiday weekend. By Memorial Day and early next
week, more unsettled weather is possible as multiple waves of
low pressure move along a front over the Southeast.

Dry airmass today with min RH`s expected to be 30-35% and strong
westerly winds gusting 25-30 mph. However with recent rains, fire
weather concerns should remain low.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph with gusts to around
                    18 mph shifting to the west 12 to 13 mph with
                    gusts to around 23 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 20 mph shifting to the west 23
                    to 28 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 89815 mph-ft increasing to Max 210104
                    mph-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  26  22  17  7   2   3   4   5   6   9   10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  65  67  69  73  76  79  81  83  84  85  85
RH..............90  87  81  70  59  52  45  41  37  33  31  30
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   7   9   11  12  12  12  11
20 FT wind gust.            9   9   14  18  23  23  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.6 2.1 3.0 4.1 4.6 5.7 6.7 7.6 7.6 6.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  12  14  15  16  18  20  23  25  28  28  26
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5   10  22  31  49  75  90  132 171 210 209 169

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest overnight, then becoming light after
                    3 am.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 24 mph decreasing to 10 to 13 mph
                    early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northwest 7 to 14 mph overnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 2875 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........11  14  15  14  14  14  12  10  9   8   9   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............82  79  75  72  68  66  63  62  60  59  57  57
RH..............34  39  46  51  57  58  65  65  67  67  72  72
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W
20 FT wind spd..10  8   6   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust.18  14  9               5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.8 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.24  16  12  12  10  12  13  14  13  10  9   7
Vrate mph-ft/1K.115 20  7   5   5   5   6   7   6   4   4   3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 16 mph shifting to the west 20
                    to 23 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 116839 mph-ft increasing to Max 178250
                    mph-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........10     13     20     22     21     19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............56     60     69     75     78     79
RH..............72     64     49     41     37     36
20 ft wind......W 4    W 6    W 7    W 9    W 10   W 9
20 ft wind gust.5             14     14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1900   4700   6400   7700   7500
Transport wind..NW 8   W 15   W 20   W 22   W 23   W 23
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3      28     92     139    177    174

$$
Forecaster...Kearns
Requested by...Brent Foltz
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2514330.1/MHX
.DELDT 05/22/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.l.nelson@usda.gov,brent.foltz@usda.gov,victoria.payne@usda.gov,zebron.watts@usda.gov