070
FNUS72 KMHX 161010
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Rose Bay Canal Fire...NCFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
610 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
Light and variable winds are expected through early this
afternoon. The seabreeze is then expected to move through the fire
area between 2-4pm this afternoon with a more dominant southerly
wind and a bump up in wind speed. A similar wind pattern is
expected on Friday. The risk of thunderstorms is expected to be
low through Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable this morning, becoming south
5 to 10 mph this afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 26449 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 34.
Stability class.....1.
Sfc pressure........29.94 to 30.00 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25  15  18  15  6   4   9   17  23  24  18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............76  79  83  85  87  89  90  91  92  91  90
RH..............90  85  77  72  68  64  60  58  56  62  64
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   4   4   4   5   6   7   7   8   9
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   5   5       9   9   9   9   14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   8   7   6   6   7   8   9   10  13
LVORI...........5   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1
ADI.............8   9   13  14  16  20  24  30  31  32  34
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4   5   10  11  12  15  19  24  25  25  26
Sfc pres (in)...998 999 999 000 000 999 998 997 996 995 994

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 79.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west
                    early in the morning.
Vent Rate...........Min 4140 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 4.
Stability class.....4.
Sfc pressure........29.94 to 29.97 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........38  36  39  30  39  42  40  39  34  22  20  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............88  86  85  83  82  82  81  81  80  80  80  79
RH..............70  72  75  77  79  82  85  85  88  88  85  88
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  14  13  13  12  12  10  10  9
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.............28  9   9   9   9   11  8   8   8   5   5   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.22  15  10  9   9   7   7   6   6   5   5   4
Sfc pres (in)...994 994 995 996 996 997 997 997 997 997 997 997

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning, becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 5 to 10
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 31049 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 38.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.98 to 30.02 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  8   6   1   1   0   2   12  18  27  33  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............79  81  82  85  88  91  92  93  94  94  92  91
RH..............88  85  85  77  70  66  64  62  60  60  66  68
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   3   2   2   3   4   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   5   5   5   5   5   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.4 3.3 3.0 2.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   S   SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   7   5   5   6   7   9   10  10
LVORI...........6   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   1   1   3   3
ADI.............4   8   12  16  17  15  19  29  36  37  38  32
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   5   10  12  13  12  15  23  30  31  31  26
Sfc pres (in)...998 000 001 002 002 001 001 001 000 999 998 998

$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Cathy Gilkeson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617203.5/MHX
.DELDT 07/16/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL d13opsrm@ncagr.gov