024
FNUS72 KMHX 181449
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for AF RX 021825...NC Forest Service
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
949 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on February 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION....
High pressure will keep conditions dry and mild today with GENERALLY
north winds under 10 kt through the day, despite RHs falling to 25-30%.
No fire weather concerns are expected today.

NOTE ON WINDS: The winds described in this forecast are for the
background wind field. Because the background winds are so light and
the skies relatively clear, there is a good chance that local sound
and river breeze circulations develop by late morning off both
the Sounds to the E and the Alligator River to the W, which will
lead to variable wind directions over the fire area. The sound breeze
circ developing to the E is expected to be the dominant circulation
and will eventually shift winds to become predominantly Eerly mid
to late afternoon. Some gustiness is possible as the sound breeze front
crosses.

A coastal low will impact the region on Wednesday bringing a mix
of winter weather including ice and snow. Dry but cooler conditions
return at the end of the week.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 9 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........17  21  23  26  32  36  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  46  47  48  48  46  43
RH..............40  40  38  39  39  43  51
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.        5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.3 2.8 1.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   9   8   7   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy then
                    becoming partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast 5 to 7
                    mph overnight.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 15 mph.

TIME (EST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........48           39           24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............40           33           33
RH..............57           83           88
20 FT wind......E 4G5        E 3G5        NE 4G5
Mix hgt (ft)....400          400          400
Transport wind..E 7          E 6          NE 9

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming cloudy. Chance of
                    snow and slight chance of rain in the morning,
                    then rain, snow and light sleet in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 39.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 16 to 22 mph.

TIME (EST)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........54           88           96
Weather cov.....             CHANCE       DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE         SNOW         SNOW
Tstm cov........
Temp............33           36           35
RH..............85           76           82
20 FT wind......NE 8G14      NE 11G18     NE 11G18
Mix hgt (ft)....900          2300         1900
Transport wind..NE 16        NE 20        NE 21

$$
Forecaster...Bowen
Requested by...Kit Gibbs
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2503167.0/MHX
.DELDT 02/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kit.gibbs@ncagr.gov